Westministenders: A Change of Mood

[RedToothBrush]

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

If the UK ended up remaining that is 2 wasted years and millions down the drain. Would surely bring down the government, people still think no deal is a viable option. This clusterfuck has no ending whatever is “decided”

red Also
How politics makes us stupid

Education and informing the public doesn't help much

https://www.vox.com/2014/4/6/5556462/brain-dead-how-politics-makes-us-stupid

Perhaps there are some kinds of debates where people don’t want to find the right answer so much as they want to win the argument.

Perhaps humans reason for purposes other than finding the truth - purposes like increasing their standing in their community, or ensuring they don’t piss off the leaders of their tribe.

If this hypothesis proved true, then a smarter, better-educated citizenry wouldn’t put an end to these disagreements.
It would just mean the participants are better equipped to argue for their own side.

Big Choc, those are both dynamics I've been aware of with online arguments for a long time. Always interesting to see them written down.

Also why I'd make a TERRIBLE politician!

Frank Not millions wasted: Brexit has cost the UK billions already, especially considering reduced GDP growth.
The E27 have spent billions more, as their prepping is much further ahead

there would only be a 2nd referendum if May agrees a deal with the EU, but fails to get it through parliament.

Could she (especially with all those fancy new powers she granted herself) give the deal to the people to vote on before she gave it to parliament?
So she gets a deal, gives us a referendum on the deal (I suppose maybe parliament would have to agree to let us have a referendum on that particular deal - but they would have no reason not to, it's not like anything better is coming along) and then - assuming we the people vote for her deal then she gets parliament to pass it.
It would really solve all her problems if she could. If we vote on it, before parliament, then she doesn't have to worry about pleasing all the different factions anymore. Parliament couldn't vote down a deal that the people had said they wanted, which would save both her skin and her party. And if we voted remain - ho hum, we tried - they changed their minds - nothing to see here. It would also save her party and possibly her skin. (I mean, I would expect her to resign if the people rejected her deal - but that would be an honourable thing to do - so she won't.)

If she can't do this yet is there any scope, with all those executive powers she has, that she can make it so she can do this? It doesn't seem massively undemocratic, too me at least, that rather than say 'MPS, this is the deal - will you accept it?' to say instead, 'MPs - this is the deal - will you let me ask the people if they will accept it?'

I'm sure there will be reasons and precedents why she can't do things in that order ... but if she could, it would make things a lot simpler for her.

thanks for the thoughts on the poll tax. I'd forgotten about the non-payment / civil disobedience aspect. There isn't really anything we can do that is comparable, is there? We can't just quietly declare that we aren't going to leave the EU and pay for everything in pennies

pretzels May's Henry VIII powers only work while she is PM and to some extent controls the cabinet.
Calling a 2nd ref for anything but an emergency - like the deal being voted down - would topple her, imo

There is really no time for a ref
The govt would have to ask the EU to extend A50 for a month, even if she called it now

no time for a ref and then an HoC vote
also, she might be toppled during the campaign and the new PM could just say they'll ignore or cancel the ref

Also why I think a 2nd ref would be Remain or No Deal:
no time now for anything that requires new negotiations

and only No Deal might just be sufficient emergency to call a 2nd ref (but probably no time unless she calls it this week)

What exactly is the DUPs ideal “way” on Brexit? I honestly have no clue what they want to happen.

They are trying to destroy the GFA and turn the clock back to 1955 in NI, the time before the uppity nationalists found the courage to march for the civil rights that had for many decades been denied them by the small unionist majority.

Brexit itself doesn't matter to them per se. The practical matter of the hit the NI economy will take is immaterial to them. It may even suit them to have hundreds of thousands of angry unionists ready to blame Ireland and the EU (mostly Ireland) for their plight. Certainly they are ready and willing to see the resumption of guerilla war. This much was demonstrated this summer around the Twelfth of July.

Steven Swinford@Steven_Swinford
EXCLUSIVE: Theresa May today held 1½ hour conference call with Cabinet in bid to shore up support
I'm told it didn't go well:

• Esther McVey said she was 'devastated' by plans
• Sajid Javid asked PM if she had 'explicitly threatened' EU with no deal

You're welcome Olenna

Well that sounds promising!

If its pissed off McVey chances are it's better than dreadful. Not necessarily good. Just not Esther McVey level dreadful.

I guess we can expect 48 letters then.

With regard civil disobedience, Farage has been encouraging his followers to take to the streets if the hardest of Brexits is not delivered. He has asked van drivers to blockade petrol stations. Especially scary when you think his followers are EDL, BNP, Britain First act. They WILL all get violent if the don't get Brexit even if it's cancelled following another referendum with a remain majority.

Crash out will be violent and extremely dangerous anyway KennDodd. Civil disasters usually are.

Ian Birrell @ianbirrel
Very telling that Daniela Tejada, desperate to get her husband freed from jail in the Gulf, begged the FCO not to let Boris Johnson take up their case when he was foreign secretary. How can anyone seriously think Johnson suitable for PM?

Regarding the 1922 committee..Red called it in her opening post. Normally the initial post becomes true by t'end of the thread.

Regarding that interesting article, especially the bit about how religious and political beliefs both factor into our identities. ..To change their mind people need to remember that who they are, and what they believe are separate. But some people are more able to separate opinions from identities?Also some things override others?Voters who were lifelong Labour and Tory voters were able to let that part of their identity go over the referendum? This must be because being a member of the EU (or not being so ) was a stronger part of their identity than party loyalty.

All very interesting,but if there’s even a sliver of hope for an 11 th hour vote between Remain and No Deal I'd be bloody nervous too. From the three sample of Leavers I mentioned above. All of them would 100% choose no deal. I know they would. Interestingly, two of them are religious so perhaps that part of heir brain is particularly hard wired.

May Way

Interesting that sun subhead line.

May will risk her job to save Brexit.

Save from whom?

Especially scary when you think his followers are EDL, BNP, Britain First act. They WILL all get violent if the don't get Brexit even if it's cancelled following another referendum with a remain majority

I’m actually less scared of the civil unrest the EDL can muster. Than I am of the fall out from a no deal Brexit

Calling a 2nd ref for anything but an emergency - like the deal being voted down - would topple her, imo

I can see that it might topple her ... but it also might make her untouchable. After all - once she's told the electorate that she wants them to have a vote on their future, anyone toppling her is basically declaring themselves a dictator. Not only would they inherit all the mess - but they would inherit every scrap of the blame 'TM was going to let the people decide - you put a stop to that - this disaster is all your fault.'
If any of them were actually willing to carry the can for Brexit she would have gone a long time ago. But to be in charge and be the person that said 'no' to an already promised referendum? I'm not sure any of them are mad enough to do that.
Declaring a people's vote would mean that all of her party who are not hardliners would support her in any no-confidence vote, for fear of what might come next. And as for getting it through parliament - the lib dems and the greens would support her. Labour would have to - really, as would the SNP.

Obviously this is all time limited - it would have to happen sooner rather than later. But if she's facing the 1922 on Wednesday, anyway - she might as well just go for it.

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
Excl: Theresa May doubles down - vows she’ll plough on with her Brexit plan, whatever the consequences for her Premiership: “I don’t think about what the implications are for me”.

“The Brexit talks are not about me or my personal fortunes. They’re about the national interest – and that means making the right choices, not the easy ones.” @theresa_may writes for The Sun to take on her hard Brexiteer critics.

...and feels everybody’s #Brexit pain: “I know it can seem like the talks are never-ending, and that many of you have been frustrated by the endless back and forth on technical points – I certainly feel that way sometimes too”.

Am I sensing a change in tone and emphasis on how she intends to polish the Brexit turd and sell it to the British public?

Note: curious choice of newspaper to sell it to. The Sun has a really weird political demographic atm especially for Brexit.

I think the UK FPTP voting system and deliberately confrontational design in Parliament with facing each other (2 sword lengths apart ) does not help nuanced or subtle thinking (amongst the MPs, let alone the public at large ). And that's before you factor in a situation where there are more than two parties - and a dominant party in one of the UK's constituent countries that is not UK-wide The HoC was built deliberately too small, so that if there is a contentious issue and all MPs are there, many have to stand, to add to the febrile atmosphere.

It could be argued that this does not help the mental health of either the MPs or the country

The Westminster system is no longer fit for purpose. It's not been fit for purpose for a while but now with increased Henry VIII powers, the power grab of devolved powers, an advisory referendum on a major but undefined constitutional issue won narrowly and illegally but treated as set in stone, a Government that is riven internally and can only remain in power because of a pact with the DUP that breaches an international agreement, the lack of a written constitution to protect us, it's in its death throes

At least in the Scottish Parliament, the MSPs are proportional to those that vote for the respective parties. It's not perfect (the unicameral structure with cross-party committees to provide oversight of proposed laws only works in a minority/coalition situation and falls down when, totally unexpectedly, a party gets in with an overall majority, but it's a damn sight better than WM.

At the moment, the only "sane" bit of WM is the House of Lords , of all places, where there is still a functioning opposition and where most some members are prepared to think for themselves, have wider experience than just politics and act in the best interests of the country rather than the party.

What is possible, right until the last moment - and maybe it would have to be then -
is the PM simply revoking A50, without a 2nd ref

This could happen as Brexit Day gets closer, still no deal and suddenly ...
international confidence in the UK crashes:

So, Sterling crashes, capital flight, business panics and many pull out of the UK
... so unemployment spikes, or more likely a huge number of redundancy noties are sent out, house prices crash 30%+

Revoke is more feasible technically than a 2nd ref, because it would be so quick
and also because neither of the two options are really possible except in response to an economic emergency, which would arrive - if at all - too late for a ref, which takes a minimum of 22 weeks, iirc, to go through all the legal hoops

The huge turnout at the march was important for an emergency late revoke decision to make political sense, because it makes the govt fear millions of angry Remainers after a no deal Brexit
while also saying that millions would still support revoking

That's also why the ECJ court case next month is so important:

Even if the PM - whoever that is then - managed to get agreement from all 27 heads of govt, she could not keep a lid on those attempts, as someone would probably blab.
She needs to be able to revoke unilaterally