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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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MyBrexitIsIll · 21/10/2018 20:35

Someone on the previous thread was asking how you feel as a dual National.
I’m not quite a dual national (might reluctantly become one...) but I dont think the UK belongs in the EU atm.
The whole ethos of neoliberalism that is so entrenched in the U.K. doesn’t work in the EU. That’s not what they are aiming for, quite the opposite.

I also think that the U.K. is much too arrogant, always wanting their own way, that happens to be NOT what the rest of the EU27 wants (see the number of times the U.K. voted against whatever the EU wanted to implement. It’s just too much, too often and shows such a divergence of opinion that I’m not sure the gap can be bridged).

And so is the legacy of Margaret Thatcher lives on.
Not such a thing as society she said. Add the citizens of nowhere. And some very aggressive vocabulary, people getting more and more entrenched in their views and extremist. And you have a country that is ripe to become full on far right, limiting rights of the powerless, aka the poor, women, minorities.

Sorry I’m not very optimistic but I can’t see Brexit been stopped. We’ve passed that stage a while ago now. I can sill vaguely hope for a CU but even that looks like a dream. The EU certainly has stopped hoping.

mybrainhurtsalot · 21/10/2018 20:40

Both Blair and Cameron lived in number 11, as it’s larger & they had bigger families. Wikipedia says May chose to stick with the recent tradition, so is in number 11 and PH is in number 10.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/11_Downing_Street

mybrainhurtsalot · 21/10/2018 20:44

Sorry my message above was in relation to the cryptic tweet posted up thread by Red about the Hammond’s moving back in when TM leaves Downing Street.

lonelyplanetmum · 21/10/2018 20:44

PMK -with eternal thanks to Red.

Regarding the reference to Zac Goldsmith upthread, let's not forget that his raison d'être is EU despising. His Dad started the anti EU propaganda very early on. Before the days of using social media to brainwash voters, he funded and posted approximately 5 million VHS cassettes to households to allow him to address the electorate directly.( That wad in His 1997 electoral campaign.) At least the council in Zac'a constituency are diametrically opposed, flying the EU flag.

Hazardswan · 21/10/2018 20:46

Wooaah you lot have really taken pessimists pills today. Just yesterday 700,000 people went out of their way to show that not all the population are right winged, racists, bobos. There is still good. Will the good do any good in this circumstance? Maybe, maybe not but it isn't realistic to pretend that we're not here.

HurricaneFliss · 21/10/2018 21:00

👍

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 21:01

Thanks for solving the puzzle, Mybrain 💐
It was a bit alarming

SmallAndFarAway · 21/10/2018 21:02

prettybird said: the UK is threatening proposing that an extension to the transition period which is for the UK's benefit is a choice between upholding an international treaty (the GFA) or not

That's what gets me - an extension is of more benefit to the UK than to the EU, but Raab thinks he can take the olive branch offered and use it as a stick. Good luck with that.

HurricaneFliss · 21/10/2018 21:06

Hazardswan did you read this Guardian piece?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/21/the-guardian-view-on-the-march-for-a-peoples-vote-a-step-forward

woman11017 · 21/10/2018 21:16

People's Vote identifies 50 Tory MPs who could be swayed on Brexit

After success of huge London march for second referendum, focus shifts to lobbying

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/21/peoples-vote-tory-mps-brexit-second-referendum-london-march?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Despite the issues some of us have with our MPs, another fab thing about yesterday was the breadth of political backgrounds of the marchers. And the peaceful unity of the whole thing.

Focus is heavily on lobbying MPs again.

That abortion private members bill could be very interesting.

Ministers are not expected to vote but Johnson’s bill has cross-party support from the Tories Sarah Wollaston and Nicky Morgan, Labour’s Jo Stevens and Stella Creasy, and other Liberal Democrat,Plaid Cymru and Green MPs

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 21:19

Will the good do any good in this circumstance?

The biggest issue is simply the ticking clock.

The march yesterday was great, but realistically unless May does something very out of character then for it to make any difference we need a political crisis. A crisis we don't have time for before the middle of next month.

The cut off date is 29th March. The EU can not change this. Therefore they HAVE to implement a no deal plan almost immediately now. They can not wait for the UK to get its shit together.

Once we get past when the EU go into No Deal mode we have very few options left.

Because the EP and individual countries have to approve a deal, we can't get an eleventh hour reprove that way very easily at all. Politically it's extremely difficult. If not impossible. With Greece, the political will around the EU probably favoured them more because of the threat to the Euro. No such risk with Brexit. The UK carries the bulk of the risk.

The only realistic thing I see after the EU are forced into this position revolves around A50 itself.

An emergency court case to decide if the UK can unilaterally revoke A50 is scheduled for the 27th Nov. The government is currently seeking to block that by appealing the decision to allow it.

With everything going on, its becoming hugely important. If the court decides that A50 can only be rescinded with the approval of the EU27, quite frankly its game over and we are screwed if May doesn't just agree to the EU, and parliament goes along with it. And it HAS to be May. No time for it to be anyone else. And public sentiment in the EU is overwhelmingly against us.

If the government appeal fails next week the ERG have more reason to try and oust May tbh. They will fear the ECJ ruling the UK has the power to revoke. They will want to control that power if it arises. If the government appeal wins, that might help protect May cos the ERG just have to disrupt in Parliament long enough for the EU to close up shop.

So that appeal ruling next week is massive.

It's really under the radar so far, in terms of how journalists are viewing its importance.

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lonelyplanetmum · 21/10/2018 21:20

pessimist pills ...

Or is it realist pills? The March was uplifting, the numbers of lovely people, the sheer volume, the positivity.

Yet when I came back, I noticed a friend's friend (who I always suspected was a passionate Leaver) posted this on FB. It was in response to pictures of the march on a yahoo news feed thingy.She posted..

" Leave means Leave. I don't care if there's no deal. I can live with that. Just leave."

To my observation this was her first ever EU related post.

The irony?Her husband is a lorry driver who goes to France, the Netherlands, Belgium etc regularly. Admittedly he's very close to retirement I think.

I'm afraid this is a cause for pessimistic realism. Even if we got to another vote, people like her, my FIL, my other friends Mum just wouldn't research anything, would vote emotionally and wouldn't change their minds.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 21:22

Triumph of the strongman has worrying echoes of the Thirties

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/triumph-of-the-strongman-has-worrying-echoes-of-the-thirties-8f9wjwx8k

Across much of the world a new style of leader is emerging to fill the void left by US isolationism and discontent with democracy
...
The Saudi snatch squad that flew into Istanbul to silence a critic of government policy was acting on orders from above.
...
What is plain though is this:
established international norms are being shredded in a way that we haven’t seen since the 1930s, the age of dictators big, small and tinpot
....
[red Box]
... the likely election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil later this month.

If he wins, he will join the ranks of Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey.

< Clearly not just a UK or EU problem >

These leaders are flexing their muscles at home and abroad as President Trump's challenge to the existing world order gives them openings

Icantreachthepretzels · 21/10/2018 21:24

Yes, the tone of the thread today has been very strange considering the turnout yesterday... especially when it is compared with the turnout for Farage and the EDL.

Has this been posted www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/21/peoples-vote-tory-mps-brexit-second-referendum-london-march ?

get emailing your mp over the next couple of days, if you haven;t already - no matter who they are. The momentum is with us. I've got one of the postcards to send off too. I do love an opportunity to remind my mp that his majority is smaller than Amber Rudd's.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 21:25

The momentum is with us

It's not a question of momentum.
It's a question of time

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frumpety · 21/10/2018 21:27

Boring fact. The Jarrow march passed through Harrogate and was warmly received by the inhabitants. Speeches were given in the Winter Gardens, where Wetherspoons is now located. Ironic ?

EthelHallowsBroomstick · 21/10/2018 21:28

Thanks for the new thread, these are so informative.

Hazardswan · 21/10/2018 21:31

Thanks hurricanefliss I hadn't read the article.

realistic

i have a simular debate with DP everytime he says he wants to die he says it's "realistic" and I say he's pessimistic. I'm not saying don't prepare for the worse just don't believe the worse is all there is

MyBrexitUnicornDied · 21/10/2018 21:33

I’m off to email my MP (again).

He’s in a stupendously safe Tory seat.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 21/10/2018 21:34

Thanks for the new thread, red.

I’m feeling pessimistic today. I think the most concerning thing is the EU running out of sympathy.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 21:37

BTW when I ran through all the above in my head, I didn't do it feeling either optimistic or pessimistic. I just ran through the possible scenarios out and what each means as far as possible.

Please do try and pick holes in the logic if you can think of anything.

Ultimately it comes back to time left, timing of known events and practical deadlines, Commons numbers, political will in the UK, political will in the EU, EU and UK law and May herself.

Unexpected events are the other big one but that's the one you can't easily account for.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 21:37

lonely Near retirement maybe key
However, a lot of people are amazingly ignorant about how international trade & transport work and how much their jobs depend on it continuing to work as before.

Leavers who voted for strong emotional reasons will just double down and refuse to hear any negative facts about Brexit;
they will never admit they were wrong, so it will always be someone's else's fault

Brain study explains why it can be so hard to change someone's beliefs

The study was about changing political beliefs, but the same would apply to any emotionally held belief, e.g. religion

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/12/28/14088992/brain-study-change-minds

Why we react to inconvenient truths as if they were personal insults.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 21:39

Time left is the driving force and most important one because of A50. David Allen Green calls it Brexit by Timetable.

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RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 21:43

Bic choc that changing minds piece is great. Really unsurprised by it, but interesting to see it written down.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 21:43

imo, because of lack of time and political organisation,
there would only be a 2nd referendum if May agrees a deal with the EU, but fails to get it through parliament.

That would automatically mean crashing out with no deal
Most of the HoC and the govt would panic and might go for a last ditch attempt to avoid this

In this case, the choice would be Remain vs No Deal
... and I think a narrow win for Remain is more likely than no deal
but I'd be bloody nervous

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