Westministenders: A Change of Mood

[RedToothBrush]

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

Much of the UK has just never recovered from that crash, never had the good years that most of the EU experienced
They missed out on the global boom of the last couple of years
and will be hit hardest by both the next global crash and Brexit (which may even trigger it)

CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk
Police are investigating a suspicious package received at an address associated with filmmaker Robert De Niro

When the Brexit unicorns don't deliver, who will they grab in desperation for their next saviour - Tommy Robinson ?

Oh the US elections are going to be so fun. I am very very nervous about the next couple of weeks

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
The so-called experts on Trump over at the New York Times wrote a long and boring article on my cellphone usage that is so incorrect I do not have time here to correct it. I only use Government Phones, and have only one seldom used government cell phone. Story is soooo wrong!

If you never read this back in 2016, you might want to and reflect.

thecorrespondent.com/5696/were-heading-into-dark-times-this-is-how-to-be-your-own-light-in-the-age-of-trump/1611114266432-e23ea1a6
We’re heading into dark times. This is how to be your own light in the Age of Trump
Sarah Kendzior

You can even look back to before his candidacy, when in February 2014, he went on Fox News to defend Russia. Why a reality TV host was on Fox News defending Russia is its own story, but here is what he said about his desired outcome for the United States:

“You know what solves it? When the economy crashes, when the country goes to total hell and everything is a disaster. Then you’ll have a [chuckles], you know, you’ll have riots to go back to where we used to be when we were great.”

I know we probably come from different political strands on this thread but I feel that the news yesterday of the Liverpool tower block that enjoys the dubious reputation of having the most number of prosecuted landlords in Britain and yet is almost entirely owned at arms length by foreign investors, is a metaphor for broken Britain. It is Thatcher on steroids. Could that ever happen in Germany? I doubt it. There isn't even a culture of property ownership in Germany. New Zealand recently took action to stop foreign buyers investing in NZ as they didn't want their own citizens to be tenants in their own country. Welcome to global Britain where everything has a price and the welfare of its citizens comes a distant second.

And brexit is going to make that 1000x worse.

Tenants have far more rights in Germany and many stay in the same home for decades; few worries about reporting LLs.
The building safety standards are rigorously enforced and an LL not making safety-related repairs will soon be up in court

I may well choose to stay renting when I move, because it is so convenient and safe

Newport West is having a by-election.

General Election 2017
Labour 22,723
Conservative 17,065
UKIP 1,100
Plaid Cymru 1,077
Liberal Democrat 976
Green 497

Sitting MP Paul Flynn is 83 and increasingly poor health. He wants to stand down 'at the earliest opportunity'.

Obviously a generalisation but a strange irony that so many 'leavers' are complaining about the EU and demonising Germany in particular while at the same time aspiring to several of the aspects that Germany does well. As I have said previously I think Mrs Merkel 'overdid it' with accommodating too many migrants without having stronger backing and plans but if I am correct in thinking this, at least some of that immigration has helped the German economy.

the law is such, that if the victim did that they would still be in breach of the injunction because they told Jess.

And countries are supposed to aspire to English law ?

This snuck in a while back, and is now considered equitable by lack of opposition.

In my book, it should never be possible to subject constituentMP communications to any form of court action. Does anyone remember the case where a judge threatened to jail a mother is she tried to contact her MP about a case ? (I think it was a family law case .. Camilla Cavendish of the Times spent a long time researching the unfettered powers of the family courts).

I think Mrs Merkel 'overdid it' with accommodating too many migrants

No choice for a real human I think LeClerc (and Putin knew it)

She saved 1 million lives that the Russians had enabled to be bombed out of their homes, country and region.

They would have drowned otherwise.

Humans survive only because of the humanity of others. Even money's no use to the ethically deformed.

Mrs Thatcher was richly rewarded for her 'benevolence' to certain parties during her regime. She died alone mad and living in a hotel.
There's 'no such thing as society' to people like her, as she found out.
trumpbrexit is what happens when that humanity is stomped on by criminals.

I wonder how many of the brexit refugees Germany or other northern European countries will be able to take.

In view of britain's recent and not so recent history of utter cruelty to refugees and migrants, the answer should probably be none.

Much against MN orthodoxy, I'm completely against secret family courts, as I am against any secret courts

Justice that cannot be openly witnessed and reported - with names reacted, for family courts or rape / child abuse - is not justice that people can put any trust in.

The Birmingham 6 and many others convicted of Irish terrorism would have rotted in jail until the GFA at least, if not for the publicity & the freedom to report on the beatings and fake confessions.

Another fundamental right should be the right to confide anything in one's MP, regardless of court orders.

MPs are one of the real safeguards in our system (and in fairness, most step up to that responsibility)

MPs are one of the real safeguards in our system

and juries the other ...

The late Lord Devlin, arguably the greatest judge of the century, was a powerful defender of trial by jury.

He said: "Each jury is a little parliament. The jury sense is the parliamentary sense. I cannot see the one dying and the other surviving. The first object of any tyrant in Whitehall would be to make parliament utterly subservient to his will; and the next to overthrow or diminish trial by jury, for no tyrant could afford to leave a subject's freedom in the hands of 12 of his countrymen. So that trial by jury is more than an instrument of justice and more than one wheel of the constitution; it is the lamp that shows that freedom lives."

Of course, we are being seduced in to minimising - even abolishing - juries by the drip, drip, drip "news" that "too many criminals are going free". An especially insidious mantra when applied to rape and sexual violence perpetrated by men. We've already done away with double jeopardy and the right to silence, so the joke we have for a jury system is probably on the way out too.

I'm a devout feminist, a GC RadFem < gasps of horror > but
I totally oppose removing jury trial for rape or sexual assault
or removing the presumption of innocence and the "beyond all reasonable doubt" hurdle

In the end, weakening the justice system - however good the intentions - weakens the protection for the most vulnerable groups those well-meaning folk wanted to help.

I am firmly in favour of anonymity for the victim but not the defendant, in such cases though
For blackmail too

It is a fine balance ... and judges must also adapt to the global social media phenomenon when imposing gag orders
Not just in these NDA cases, but also when e.g. trying to protect new identities of released criminals
The world has moved on from when gagging print media in one country had more than temporary effect, particularly if the subject supposedly gagged can move abroad too.

or removing the presumption of innocence and the "beyond all reasonable doubt" hurdle

Sorry, they disappeared when you weren't looking. Firstly the fact that the Home Office (illegally) decided that fingerprints and DNA taken from people who have never been found guilty of any crime on the basis that "well, they might in future" isn't a great start. Then reading forums (like Mumsnet) for no longer than it takes a cuppa to brew will show that the default setting in society appears to be "no smoke without fire", coupled with an alarming tactic of accusing anyone who thinks otherwise of being a closet rapist/paedophile/whatever.

Wow! A very old-fashioned view of modern families.

Home Secretary statement on the use of DNA evidence in immigration applications

If an individual does not have sufficient evidence to show that they are related to someone in the UK, they sometimes choose to do a DNA test to prove that relationship.

Officials will then consider this evidence as part of their claim.

Very often, this will be to the advantage of the applicant because it can help establish family relationships beyond doubt where the other available evidence is sometimes insufficient.

However, the provision of DNA evidence must be entirely voluntary.

At the end of June, it was brought to our attention that there were some immigration cases where the provision of DNA evidence had been made a requirement for issuing a visa or grant leave to remain, and it was not simply a request.

Such demands are unacceptable.

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/home-secretary-statement-on-the-use-of-dna-evidence-in-immigration-applications

I had a response from my MP about the People’s Vote. So infuriating. She says 700000 is no match for the 17.4 million who voted in 2016. And says a People’s Vote would be a politician’s vote to tell the people they voted the wrong way. She falsely says there could be no option to remain on the ballot as Article 50 has been triggered. She also says: “The Director-General of the WTO, Robert Azevedo, has said that trading under WTO rules for the UK “is not the end of the world”. If that is the best she could find it is very far from reassuring.

Still no reply to my other email about medications.

{ “The Director-General of the WTO, Robert Azevedo, has said that trading under WTO rules for the UK “is not the end of the world”. }
She is of course correct that this situation won't be the end of the world for Robert Azevendo. Not true of many others though!
A bit of a 'soundbite' MP if you ask me (which you didn't).

DG The MN "we believe you" refers to accepting - provisionally - that a rape / assault happened, but not necessarily to believe that the particular man specified was actually the perpetrator.

More importantly, MN is sometimes like women sitting around a table in the coffee bar sharing news for support

I might well say in those circs: "I believe you", to comfort an obviously distressed acquaintance / friend

However, I absolutely would have different criteria if I were to be on a jury,
i.e. I would take the requirement to prove beyond reasonable doubt just as seriously in a rape case as in one of fraud, murder, bombings etc

So would almost all MNers in a real jury
As for the exceptions, well, there are also a few MNers at the other extreme who would refuse to convict, thinking of their sons & husbands and that men get a raw deal.

Most people are basically decent, when allowed to think

LeClerc The quote is selective.
Alvarez said something like "not a walk in the park and not the end of the world, but serious"

She was on the remain side pre-referendum, but she is incredibly loyal and never ever criticises govt policy let alone rebelling. Her replies always make me feel much more frustrated. I will reply again but it doesn’t seem worth it and she just doubled down if previous experience is anything to go by.

Thanks Big Choc, will seek out the full quote before I reply.

I just think if the best you can offer is “not the end of the world” or “adequate food” or the prospect of medicine shortages etc then maybe you should rethink whether it is the right course.

Very late response to this
“It'd be nice if our high streets could provide social spaces that aren't engineered ti just create money for shareholders and landlords. Pie in the sky, I know.”
Some still do. It’s the library if the council hasn’t closed it.
www.unison.org.uk/events/national-demonstration-save-libraries-museums-culture/

We now have a bomb sent to former VP Biden too.