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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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Thread gallery
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Hesta54 · 25/10/2018 11:39

Unfortunately, with or without Brexit there will be a recession, there tends to be one in every decade, we never fully recovered from the last one

SwedishEdith · 25/10/2018 11:40

Multi-layered answers - not simple sound bites.

And she also said she's hears stuff can't report (obviously but tantalising).

Here's today's Your Call.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0000v6m#play

Plonkysaurus · 25/10/2018 11:45

Feel youve kind of proven my point DGR. But then, my the business end of what I do is almost entirely run online. I can only speak from experience, and I'm assuming that your DS is a generation younger (ie 8-10 years) than me.

God knows how the kids get their shit done. I can only speak for myself and a smattering of my peers.
Amazon if necessary, high street if I really must (and then its a straight in, straight back out job to collect something I've reserved online), etsy, insta and independent shops (on and offline) are far preferable.

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 11:45

Any advice on how to recession proof ourselves?

Yes

  1. Be rich and have a lot of cash.

  2. Anticipate what every is going to be most desperate for in Brexit shortages and invest in it now

  3. Grow your own food and be as self sufficient as possible.

  4. Have good local networks around you.

  5. Find God. And start praying. Sharpish. Cos you don't wanna know 6 and 7

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DGRossetti · 25/10/2018 11:47

I find myself smiling when people mention coffee shops - Costa/Starbucks being the obvious names. Mainly because people seem to think it's somehow about the coffee. Because it's not. (Which you'd know if you'd tasted it).

Instead these places are low-cost social hubs. Buy a coffee and stay for a chat. (Why do you think they are so expensive). As DW and I discussed last week after meeting some friends for a coffee, and spending 90 minutes in the shop, having spent £35 between us.

Personally I love the idea that coffee shops are back again. Of course there's no one alive who can recall when they were last this extant. But we know the Bank of England was formed in one.

That said, DW and I rarely use them anymore - it's far less stressful to fire up our deLonghi, and have a sweet treat at a quarter the price.

DW uses a wheelchair, so an awful lot of our experiences are coloured by the pisspoor accessibility in the UK which makes going out a combination of lucky-dip, endurance race and low level rage as well as inevitable disappointment.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2018 11:49

Nothing sinister in the news upthread that Heywood stepping down, if anyone is still worried:

Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood steps down as he battles cancer

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/cabinet-secretary-sir-jeremy-heywood-steps-down-as-he-battles-cancer-a3970381.html

DGRossetti · 25/10/2018 11:49

RTB gives one way to try and tough out the recession.

Storming parliament is another. After all, it's not been tried in the UK before. If todays "news" is accurate, you might not even see a policeman on the way.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2018 11:50

red 1) suffices, if we are talking really wealthy

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 11:50

A career move into security is probably a good call.

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RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 11:52

Seriously though I'm finding it increasingly hard NOT to imagine major civil unrest in the UK in the next two years.

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2018 11:57

Did that mysterious businessman who gagged the Telegraph indulge in racial or sexual harassment, or both ?

Or is Jess Phillips just trying to cover future possibilities.
She refers to the victim as "him" - grammatical convenience or info from the court case ?

We're all waiting eagerly to see if Jess receives the name - and I bet that businessman is shitting himself waiting !

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/mp-jess-phillips-threatens-to-name-businessman-at-centre-of-legal-storm-a3970151.html

A "leading" businessman should not be allowed to “buy silence” from alleged victims of sexual harassment and racial abuse ...

Jess Phillips, who chairs the Women’s Parliamentary Labour Party, suggested that the senior executive, who is involved in a legal battle to stop a newspaper revealing his name, could be named in Parliament.

She said that if a victim came forward and consented to her naming him in the Commons, she would be willing to do so, according to the Financial Times.
“He should be named as long as that is what victims want. It cannot be right that the rich can buy silence,” she added.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2018 11:59

Yes, security business prospects booming even without a Brexit crash:

With UC, police cuts,
police not even responding to many burglaries etc (but able to come in numbers to a tiny, peaceful lobby meeting by GC feminists at the recent Green Party conf)

DGRossetti · 25/10/2018 12:00

Seriously though I'm finding it increasingly hard NOT to imagine major civil unrest in the UK in the next two years.

Maybe we've already started ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45970761

While recorded crime is up by nearly a third in three years, charges or summons have fallen by 26% and the number of arrests is also down, according to the findings of the 18-month inquiry.

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 12:01

Robert Peston @peston
One reason it is in the public interest for the Telegraph to be permitted to publish the identity of the businessman accused of bullying, racism and sexual harassment - and of silencing alleged victims with non-disclosure agreements - is that such conduct is not unique.

As someone who has reported on and observed those who run big companies for 35 years, the uncomfortable truth is I wasn’t surprised enough by the Telegraph’s disclosures.

In fact when I read the Telegraph’s story, I immediately thought of at least four prominent business figures (all men of course) who could fit the newspaper’s devastating description of an individual abusing their power to humiliate and take advantage of staff and colleagues.

But here is the shaming question I must face. When I first heard the gossip and rumours years ago, why didn’t I - and other hacks - do more to call out and expose the bullies and harassers?

I fear we were beguiled by the cult of wealth-creating “strong” leaders - who were grabbing businesses and the British economy by the scruff of the neck and generating profits that create jobs and pay for public services.

So because the gossip and rumour was not about illegal behaviour but about power-hungry plutocrats treating people shabbily, we held our noses, stood up to them in private but did not do enough in the public realm to shine a light on what now looks like a pernicious...

... feudalism infecting too much of corporate life.

All I would say however is that some of the outrage you will now see expressed about all this in the press and on television has just a tinge of hypocrisy: within my working life, much of the media...

... used to be the very archetype of institutionalised bullying and sexism.

That said, the biggest abdication of responsibility rests with non-executive and senior executive colleagues of the harassing and bullying bosses, too many of whom turned the Nelsonian eye...

...when their “inspiring” leader silenced employees and colleagues who felt used and exploited.

And there you have it. Business, politics whatever.

EVERYONE KNEW

They just turned a blind eye

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RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 12:03

Dgr we have.

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DGRossetti · 25/10/2018 12:03

She refers to the victim as "him" - grammatical convenience or info from the court case ?

ISTR from a QI with Clive Anderson many years ago that in legal parlance "the masculine includes the feminine and the singular implies the plural" when pronouns are used Hmm

That said, as James Acaster noted recently ....

I wonder who the worst person in the world is ? I mean we know it's got to be a man ...

WorriedMutha · 25/10/2018 12:07

Thanks so much to BCF and Post for your comprehensive evaluations of life in Germany. It has probably confirmed that we could have a wonderful senior gap year in Berlin but probably won't be able to integrate enough to have fulfilling lives. It isn't that we want a full on ex pat community experience but I do feel we would be a bit culturally estranged if we were to be the only Brits in the village so to speak. That said, there could well be Brexodus brain drain within a few years. In any event, we wouldn't be able to jump before 3/19 as we have a child doing A levels in 6/19. We could only plan an exit during transition (if the country doesn't come to its senses).

1tisILeClerc · 25/10/2018 12:10

{She said that if a victim came forward and consented to her naming him in the Commons, she would be willing to do so, according to the Financial Times.}
At which a queue forms as at present the 'mystery person' is still a mystery and you can bet there will be more than one.

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 12:14

Leclerc the law is such, that if the victim did that they would still be in breech of the injunction because they told Jess.

As it goes the injunction I'm pretty such will be removed so it's just a question of patience

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ShinyElena · 25/10/2018 12:18

I tried to convince DH to find a job in Germany or preferably Vienna.

Thank God we did not stay in Hungary. Realistically he could have only worked at the Central European University there, which will announce its move to Vienna today. So we would have to move now or commute.
I can't believe they forced them out in the end. This is what happens when the alt-right takes over.

Just to make me sad, this is CEU's new campus in Budapest:
archinect.com/news/article/150092177/despite-its-celebrated-campus-design-budapest-s-central-european-university-faces-harsh-political-resistance

ShinyElena · 25/10/2018 12:21

We know from Holly Evans (BBC's the Press) that a super injunction could be circumvented by leaking the story to a foreign website, then reporting on that. Bit dodgy, but works.

RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 12:26

If there is a global recession, then Germany is going to have increasing problems. It won't be immune.

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RedToothBrush · 25/10/2018 12:31

Emily, Union Pres @SotonPres
Mark my words - we're taking down the mural of white men in the uni Senate room, even if I have to paint over it myself

John-Paul Fitzgibbon @jpjfitz
Just out of interest what does the mural depict and have you any idea when and why it was made?

Louisa @ukhistorygirl
It was painted in 1916 and depicts all those students who left uni to fight in the First World War and never returned. They are being presented the degree they couldn’t return to finish

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ShinyElena · 25/10/2018 12:31

Nothing will be immune, but I would be closer to my Mom.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/10/2018 12:33

No, but I worked in Germany in 2008 and the years after.
Their downturn presented a lot differently to the UK's - why I stayed on then

imo, because:

  • after decades of investing in public services and infrastructure, they can pull in their belts without hurting much

  • they didn't really scapegoat those on benefits

  • they have the business & politcial socila contract & organisation to pull themselves out much more quickly than we do, even without Brexit