Westministenders: A Change of Mood

[RedToothBrush]

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

I see a global recession coming

Me too mother. I dread to think how people are going to cope. We already have huge numbers of homelessness and people needing food banks. How much worse will it be with a recession?

The one Ladybird book I will definitely buy.

Ladybird book authors make light work of Brexit
www.theguardian.com/books/2018/oct/25/ladybird-book-authors-make-light-work-of-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Debenhams is in trouble

Curiously, the previous effect of one big one going concentrating custom to the survivors doesn't seem to have kicked in here. The House of Fraser collapse should have driven some fresh business Debenhams way. The fact it hasn't might mean a paradigm shift in retailing - a critical mass one way or the other.

Of course the landlord infrastructure isn't equipped to deal with this.

One of my local larger malls has - since 2005 - lost Alders (and the space vacated by them has never been completely re-let), BHS, M&S, Past Times, Millets, Hawkins Bazaar, T.J. Hughes, Burton/Officers Club. Clarks and Mothercare moved out, and the Burger King is now closed. You can bet your life that with the loss of so much rental income, the landlords aren't reducing rents, but increasing them.

Meanwhile the few remaining big names are punctuated by empty units and odd individual shops that won't have a cat in hells chance of making it past a few months.

The "High Street" as we knew it is dead. Things have moved on, and will never be the same. The best we can hope for is a managed decline.

So the Nikkei has plunged 3.7% led by the US because of Trump's policies, the US-China trade war etc.

Is this another factor to force our politicians and electorate to rethink their disdain for the second largest economy in the world with a GDP of $18.8 trillion. Or will it just be another reason to hide behind saying that our economic crisis is global and unrelated to Brexit?

Or will it just be another reason to hide behind saying that our economic crisis is global and unrelated to Brexit?

It would be amusing if - in a final flash of Empire - the rest of the world blamed this recession on Brexit instead. Hell, I'd pay into a crowdfunder to push that message ... imagine Theresa May turning up to any country around the world to headlines of "cause of global recession pays us a visit" ?

Unfortunately, I think she'd have to share that accolade with Trump

Good show on BBC 5Live this morning. Katya Adler and Anand Menon answering people's questions. 5Live is much better on Brexit that the Today programme. Worth listening to on catch-up.

Katya Adler was also very good on BBC Breakfast

Multi-layered answers - not simple sound bites.

imagine Theresa May turning up to any country around the world to headlines of "cause of global recession pays us a visit"?

Surely it would still be Labour's / Gordon Brown's fault.

She also pointed out that the EU was relaxed about timescales as Barnier has been keeping the European Parliament updated and on board - so they know that if the EU and the UK ever agree a WA, it will pass through the EP

.....contrast that to May and the UK Parliament

They've been talking about another recession fur a while now. It was just eclipsed by Brexit news.

The higher street has been ill fir some years too. It just seems tgatbtheir demise is coming at the same time than Brexit. (No irony there). But clearly Brexit IS making things harder fir them. And the increase of taxes for shops/business owners (who in earth advised the government on that??)

The issuebthe U.K. Is facing is a whole lot of problems that are wry structural (eg high street shops, lack of productivity etc), a global recession that will come now (or Ina couple of years) AND Brexit.
How the uk is supposed to thencope with a recession when it still hasn't recovered from the previous one, 10 years on, I have no idea.
It certainly won't do that with austerity measures. Tried that

I always think when I go into a department store, who buys this stuff? Racks and racks of clothes, shoes, bags all looking much the same and mostly poorly manufactured, cheap and shoddy. I rarely see anyone actually buying. I wonder how the concessions keep going. I realise that I buy relatively few things compared to other people but - if not sold, where does it go? Into landfill? To markets in third world countries (and why would they want it)? Does anyone know?

twitter.com/EuroManc/status/1055364815282147328

How the uk is supposed to thencope with a recession when it still hasn't recovered from the previous one, 10 years on, I have no idea.

I think part of the problem is a tendency to hark back to how things were years ago, and devote resources to trying to reattain that state when the reality is things have moved on. It's the civilian equivalent of armies being prepared to fight the last war.

If we could accept that things will never return to a "golden age" then future options become more blue-sky. For example, companies should kiss goodbye to the idea of gouging businesses with rents as a viable business model. However, the older I get, the more I realise that's just "not the way".

Incidentally, cities grew up long before the idea of the high street, and will continue long after they are gone. It's the way of things.

It'd be nice if our high streets could provide social spaces that aren't engineered ti just create money for shareholders and landlords. Pie in the sky, I know.

Shopping still happens, it's just different now. Younger generations are far more likely to shop online, and the rise of small instagram/etsy shops prove plenty of homemade, pricier, high quality items do have a market. The high street, in conparison, is just a sea of vape shops, nail/brow bars, Costa coffee and charity shops. No wonder no one wants to buy anything in towns anymore.

Mutha and BCF, the Rhine is my stomping ground as my Mum grew up there and her family are still there, I was there couple of weeks ago. I’ve always said I couldn’t live there in the past but obviously Brexit changes things. My German is not great as was not brought up bilingual but I get by. I have problems with the dialect some of them (possibly more the older generation?) speak. My Mum’s cousin was down from Westphalia and my Cousin struggled a bit with their accent she was saying. I understand her and she was my translator, not into English but simpler German. Her children and partners speak far more English but need a bit of persuasion which I did as they all use it for work and good for them to hear a native English speaker.

I feel In time I’d be ok but am not sure DH would cope as has very little German although he would be fine for a few months if he ended up there in a case of shit hitting fan with insulin. I think that without working it would be hard to break into a social circle but not impossible if you throw yourself into things and make the effort to speak the language. I know they are my family but everyone worked very hard to make me welcome and were lovely, hadn’t seen them for 8 years. There’s a slight reservedness you need to break through initially I find but the stereotype of no sense of humour definitely doesn’t hold true, they spend hours laughing though I wasn’t entirely sure what it was about a lot of the time!

A guy I went to school with went to work in Munich straight after Brexit. I don’t remember him on the German exchange and don’t think he did any at school. Have been watching his updates and I think things are going well, he’s just moved the rest of his family over and he seems to have a mix of nationalities that he socialises with judging from his Facebook posts. I think a move like that would be much easier than somewhere small but much more expensive.

There has been talk for some time of another financial crisis, especially since Trump has dismantled most of the safeguards Obama put in to stop that;
Greedy financial institutions lobbied for this and anyway, Trump loves rolling back anything Obama did.

Currently, economists say there has been a global boom the last couple of years, which is partly why the Brexit effects haven't been more noticeable.

However, while the other EU countries are making up for the 2008 crash, the UK isn't because of Brexit

• and the UK, Portugal, Greece are the only ones who had a negative change in real income 2008 - 2015

It'd be nice if our high streets could provide social spaces that aren't engineered ti just create money for shareholders and landlords. Pie in the sky, I know.

City planning - used to be a "thing" ... people once got degrees in it.

Shopping still happens, it's just different now. Younger generations are far more likely to shop online

Getting older, I am wary of these kind of generalisations. There's a whole generation of kids around who seem to prefer the phone to email, and DS has never bought anything online in his life. Meanwhile we're massive Amazon fans ....

and the rise of small instagram/etsy shops prove plenty of homemade, pricier, high quality items do have a market. The high street, in conparison, is just a sea of vape shops, nail/brow bars, Costa coffee and charity shops. No wonder no one wants to buy anything in towns anymore.

There's the tyranny of the majority. Shops stocking only what sells sounds like a great idea. However it's a dangerously navel-gazing business practice. If you have a glance at my Amazon history, you'd be astounded by the stuff I have bought online because I couldn't find it in a shop. Having learned the hard way, the default in the Rossetti household is "Amazon first ...". By contrast, a visit to our local (soon to be Debenhams-less) mall is a depressing parade through shops all selling exactly the same tat. Usually at the same price.

A few years ago, I wanted some new sandals for summer. Anything that uses velcro to fasten is shittier than the shittest shit thing you could think of that isn't actually shit.

Every single shop I tried - Humpheys, Brantano (!), Clarks, Shoezone and Deitch (sp?) only had velcro-ey sandals. Admittedly cheap (sub £20). But still shit.

Quick google later, and I bought an outstanding pair with proper snap fasteners for £34 (inc P&P). That was in 2011. They're still as good as new and have had a hell of an outing this summer.

How about chain coat-loops for hanging. Nowhere to be found in any high street store (nor Hobbycraft). £3 inc P&P on Amazon.

The list continues.

I think the most galling thing is the "faddiness" of shops now. Meaning if what you want isn't featured on "Bake off" you can forget about it. A decent rotary egg-whisk for example.

Maybe Brexit will accelerate the demise of the High street. If we had any decent government, it would be a golden opportunity to use it as a springboard to improving city life for the 21st century. Instead, with this bunch of incompetent self-serving hypocritical wankers, we'll just see a parade of empty properties - no doubt festooned with adverts for non-family "city living" apartments. That probably won't sell ... because there's no shops.

Who remembers the London Dockland Development Corporation ? The EU does. They nicked a lot of ideas it had, and praised it as a bold innovation in regenerating post-industrial London.