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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 21:51

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/23/police-chiefs-fewer-officers-treasury-shrinks-budgets-pensions
Police chiefs warn of fewer officers after Treasury shrinks budgets further

Fresh cuts will leave largest forces in England and Wales with officer numbers last seen in the 1970s

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WorriedMutha · 23/10/2018 21:54

Everyone here is busy prepping and buying up Pot Noodles but is anyone prepping the big ticket stuff? House on the market, stashing some cash into Euros. DH and I have this conversation every few days, go round in circles and sit on our hands for a bit longer. How long do you wait if you don't want to get locked in with the crazies?

Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 21:57

bigchoc we can do three months. Seriously would it be that easy? I'm not working because of DP. Would they let us stay if we're benefit claimers and DP is a medical drain? I could work part time at a push...though have no language skills!

Suppose we could keep ourselves busy abroad for 6 months then come back?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 21:58

It's not just the 30% of Uk food that is imported from the EU
There is about another 20% imported from RoW, also handled by Uk ports and even some of that may come via the EU

55% of UK fruit & veg comes from the EU
Might be tough to keep getting that 5 a day - maybe stockpile some tins of veg & fruit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Mrsr8 · 23/10/2018 21:59

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 22:01

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Talkstotrees · 23/10/2018 22:08

Wow! All seems to be coming to a head. Who is pushing this sudden increase in public information? And why?

Obviously I’m all for it.

WhatWouldScoobyDoo · 23/10/2018 22:09

shinyelena yes I dipped into my tins pile for harvest festival. And shed a tear over the ridiculousness of the situation.

mrs I think you have mentioned before how you got your EU account - was it an online site? Would you mind reminding me please?

goldensky · 23/10/2018 22:10

l have been reading these threads from the beginning- occasional poster, serial name changer. my job is to raise money for charities serving marginalised people and I have spent the last 18months working as hard as I can to get as many multi-year grants for as many services as I can. I am now completely exhausted and totally despondent. I thought if I could stabilise services and ensure their income until 2020/21 at least then things might be OK. This is mostly in place now but I just don't know what else I can do at this point, or how to advise the groups I support- the risks/unknowns seem so immense. Any advice or suggestions from anyone would be gratefully received. The numbers of people presenting at grass-roots services with basic needs (such as food/clothing) has been rising rapidly for the last six months and tempers are flaring as resources are stretched. I feel so anxious.

KennDodd · 23/10/2018 22:10

Did somebody say there's a Leavers thread? Are the still saying how great it all is?

UnnecessaryFennel · 23/10/2018 22:11

I have a euro bank account now (thanks to Mrsr8!)...although very little spare money to put into it...

Pot Noodles and tinned pineapple it is, then. I'm sorry, I know I keep being inarticulate but...fuck me. This Is Insanity.

I am so hoping that I look back on this thread in 6 months time and wince with embarrassment.

Mother I hope you're right about disinformation. I don't know though. I don't know about anything anymore.

UnnecessaryFennel · 23/10/2018 22:13

Scooby the euro account is via Transferwise, online.

PostNotInHaste · 23/10/2018 22:14

Incredibly pissed off all over again at the idea of issues with insulin supply and have written to MP asking him to giveca100% guarantee that DH will have no interruption to his insulin supply given that the Government is asking companies to stockpile but that there is no legal requirement.

DH does have some put aside and quietly building up further supplies thanks to a helpful GP. However we’ve just had to have a conversation about what happens if it all goes pear shaped. Think our best bet is to bail to Germany as I am a dual national, albeit one with an out of date passport (hope to have a new one by then but there is a slight issue with a kissing piece of paper). Think8mg Poole Cherbourg and drive round rather than attempt Dover,

My family will rally round I’m sure so a place to live for a bit. DH could potentially work remotely for a bit, DS and school would be problematic as year 10 and we have pets but hopefully someone here would help. Ideal scenario would be if we could find a way to obtain a few months supply there and bring it back in with cool box (have one that stays cold for up to 5 days). Not sure what the situation would be about obtaining it though. Can’t begin to express how furious I am at even having to think about this.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 22:17

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:20

on the other hand, they'll believe this shit

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Cabinet told France could wreak massive damage on Britain’s economy by closing down Calais under a no deal Brexit.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7566620/france-block-calais-no-deal-brexit-threat/
France threatens to block Calais port to the UK if we refuse to pay £39bn divorce bill in a No Deal Brexit scenario

The move would hugely damage our economy by squeezing the crucial Dover-Calais trade route

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Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 22:20

post YAY for dual nationality! Also from what I've read two of the big companies have stockpiled insulin at 14 weeks and a 16 weeks.. let me dig for article...

[https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-no-deal-insulin-diabetes-stockpile-medication-novo-nordisk-eu-ema-sanofi-a8522276.html]

If thats any reassurance Flowers

1tisILeClerc · 23/10/2018 22:20

@Hazard
I think to seriously consider escaping to the EU you will need a lot of preparation as there are many aspects that need considering. Everything from passports, visas, finding accommodation etc (stuff that has been covered in Westminsterenders threads) and much of this could become very expensive. Getting a job could take weeks or months (unemployment is fairly high in many countries, possibly worse for low skilled stuff).
While things could be tricky in the UK, you at least know 'the ropes' and can work on dealing with some tricky bits rather than a whole barrage of tricky bits all at once.
Thinking aloud I would be tempted to suggest somewhere NON EU. where the UK is already a 'third country' which if I am correct would mean passports will be OK (well as OK as they are now). Just go as a long holiday.

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:21

However

But another Cabinet source hit back to say no other British port in the south east is either deep enough or has the surrounding infrastructure to handle the size of Dover’s trade.

The source added: “Grayling is talking bs, he literally doesn’t know what he’s talking about. There is no workaround to Dover, and rail or air freight is offers nowhere near the same capacity either”.

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Motheroffourdragons · 23/10/2018 22:26

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:26

The Torygraph secret squirrel article. Its actually interesting:

Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef
Breaking: A leading UK businessman has been granted an injunction agains the Daily Telegraph publishing allegations which would reignite the #MeToo movement

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/10/23/british-metoo-scandal-cannot-revealed/
The British #MeToo scandal which cannot be revealed

Telegraph editor Chris Evans has emailed staff tonight: "We think it is overwhelmingly in the public interest that this story of ours be told and we are confident that, eventually, we will overturn the injunction."

Evans continued: "I must remind you that we are the subject of an injunction which makes anyone who breaches it liable to imprisonment and so to avoid any risk of you doing so you must not speculate as to the identity of the individual or retweet or comment on speculation…"

You can find the legal particulars of the injunction against the Daily Telegraph Ltd here —>
www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2018/2329.html
Between: ABC & OTHERS Appellants - and - TELEGRAPH MEDIA GROUP LIMITED

The MillenniJarl @millennijarl
Wasn't this the plot in an episode of Press?

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:28

I note this:

Tom Larkin @TomLarkinSky
"The court ruled that the confidentiality of contracts was more important than freedom of speech."

Massive RAMIFICATIONS if that isn't challenged.
(Its also why I am willing to bet The Telegraph it will get it overturned)

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:32

Not quite so straightforward, Hazard
Contrary to popular belief, FOM is for workers, self-supporting pensioners or the comfortably off
Not for those on benefits, even disabled benefits, or who can't work

My info is specific to Germany, but I think similar restrictions apply in France

For at least the first 6 months - maybe longer - you would NOT be able to claim benefits and you would need to be able to support yourselves totally.
The UK could always have applied those rules, but didn't

If you don't have certain mc professional qualifications, don't know the language and don't have local contacts, it would be difficult to get a job
I heard of some towns in Spain with large Brit communities where expats can work casually with only English, but nothing about France

The health service is more tricky:
The EHIC only lasts for 3 months and may not work after Brexit anyway
Access to the foreign health service may be after 12 months, as in some cases in Germany, rather than 3 months
You would need to pay in to the local scheme as soon as you arrive, as even UK private insurance might not be valid any more

Another big problem - where would you live ?
I don't know if you could find - afford - AirBnB for the first few weeks and then another if need be etc
Renting in Germany is diffcult for under 1 year and you have to show income statements for the last 3 months - don't know about France

If you are genuinely thinking of France, maybe Misti or LeClerc could tell you the waiting times for benefits and for health care, also about job prospects and housing

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:32

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
EXCLUSIVE

** Times sees cabinet papers revealing next stage of brexit Plan
** Brexit transition WILL last for years under TM’s Plan officials say.
They warn of “long-running” multi-year transition
** Plan A WILL involve NI in separate VAT area. Officials admit “uncomfortable”.

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:34

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
Tonight No10 have issued this statement about our leak

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:39

I suggest that anyone without E27 citizenship, who isn't self-supporting, or an internationally mobile mc professional, should
either
stay put in the UK and prep
or
take a looong, 3-6 months holiday abroad - i.e. totally self-supporting

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