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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:40

oooo on the Telegraph story we have this tweet

Jess Phillips @jessphillips
Parliamentary Privilege?

Oooooooooooo

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:41

"We do not accept, that having negotiated long & hard for our cake with cherries on top, we can only have baguette with hard cheese"

prettybird · 23/10/2018 22:41

Re the "plans" to use "other" ports other than the busy channel ports to avoid the logjam at Dover-Calais.....is it just me but won't there be the same problems at Zeebrugge, Hamburg and Esbjerg? Confused

The problem isn't capacity per se - it's the fact that capacity everywhere will be overwhelmed by the requirements of dealing with a WTO terms external border to the EU Confused

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:42

Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes
The leak reveals a highly complex plan (“Model A”) under which the U.K. would be given the unilateral option of EITHER extending the implementation plan OR going into the backstop if the FTA isn’t ready by Dec 31 2020
Key sentence about Plan A: “it would be possible to argue alternatively for a rolling (for example annual) decision point, allowing any IP extension to be reviewed and a backstop activated at a later point.” Annual?

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GD12 · 23/10/2018 22:42

@RedToothBrush what does that mean?

bellinisurge · 23/10/2018 22:43

There's been some stockpiling food type posts. As a prepper can I suggest everyone pops over to the Prepper topic when they can. We are all pretty friendly and helpful (I save my snarls for Brexit threads) and there are lots of ideas.
My tip is to imagine being snowed in for three days. Think of what you actually eat and drink for breakfast dinner and tea (lunch and supper if you aren't Northern ). Get that in or shelf stable substitutes that you will actually eat. Or freezer stuff but, if you have my luck, your freezer might pack in when you need it most. Think about hygiene needs - great prepper I am, we were down to our last loo roll this morning! Get an extra tube of toothpaste and soap/shampoo. Get some food treats in to cheer everyone up. Get alcohol in for when you are done being smiley and positive. Or whatever.
Never let your car go less than half full. Remember to get stuff in for pets.
It's highly unlikely we'll have power cuts etc (Northern Ireland power issue notwithstanding) but it's always handy to have wind up torches and radios.
Hot water bottles also good for the unlikely event of no heat - winter is coming () so they are great anyway.
Tea! Coffee!
Any use?

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:44

Jess Phillips @jessphillips
If any of the victims in this case would like to speak to me, please do get in touch. I'm done with these rich men using our laws to hide you away.

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 22:44

In France I think you could just declare yourself self-employed (autoentrepreneur) in order to access healthcare.

Tbh I don't really know what is currently required of new EU arrivals. A few years ago they tried to crack down on access to the healthcare system for self-supporting EU migrants (ie those who are not either pensioners or workers, or their dependents) - but they were forced to backtrack.

You'd get family benefits if you qualify for them (for your second child, or first if low income). Unemployment benefit requires you to have worked because it's insurance rather than a universal benefit.

Vast majority of the Brit families I know get means-tested benefits and most would not survive without.

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 22:45

That info was for hazard if it's not clear!

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:46

what does that mean?

It means they want a deal with a backstop that rolls. So its not just the EU who dictate when to go, the UK has some control too. Plus its really complicated so that the bits the thick lazy brexiteers in the tory party won't like, go over their heads.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:46

LeClerc Passports will be ok in the EU, too, if they are Ok anywhere else

The problems with emigrating anywhere come down purely to the ability to support yourself.
which would of course be much easier in an English-speaking country
plus obtaining health insurance - almost nowhere else has healthcare based on residence

However, the flight to Oz or NZ is expensive if it's just for a 6 months
and it may be difficult to get work visas for other English-speaking countries, if you don't have a skill they need

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 22:48

Why all this amateur theatrics from the cabinet tonight, and their handmaiden press? Much of this was known over a year ago, publicly, at tory party conference.

Why the fake 'shock' now?

1tisILeClerc · 23/10/2018 22:49

Misti will have a better answer about France but benefits and healthcare, can take months to organise. Paperwork rules big time and having enough bits of supporting information in the right 'order' could drive you insane.
Proof that you can support yourself for IIRC a year, which is given a nominal value of around 10K (per person, maybe a bit of a reduction for a couple), it is certainly not a 'stress free' option. Unemployment is around 10 percent in parts of France and to sort things out you need to read or speak French (or have someone available to help).

Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 22:50

Thanks leclerc and bigchoc laptop out tomorrow and I'll do some research. Have some wiggle room with DP's benefits because he's paid his NI so his are contribution based and he has small savings which we use for his private dr.... Carers allowance cuts off after 4 wks I think.

Can't go to far because DP really isn't up for travel (not allowed told fly ferry fine).

😱 so much to consider.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:50

Misti Do you know how long someone needs to be resident in France to get those means-tested benefits ?

iirc it's 12 months in Germany, as for state healthcare and they need to be working & self-supporting, but it may be easier in Germany

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:51

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Replying to @SamCoatesTimes
But realistic. A Free Trade Agreement won't be negotiated by end 2020 and probably not by 2022. We're meeting reality head on.

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Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 22:52

Thanks misti Flowers

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 22:52

tbh, hazard I think you would be safer staying in the UK

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2018 22:56

Jess Phillips @jessphillips
Funnily enough I have a PMQ tomorrow

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Mistigri · 23/10/2018 23:00

Misti Do you know how long someone needs to be resident in France to get those means-tested benefits ?

Like I said I'm not the best person to ask but AFAIK you just have to be "regularly" (as in legally) resident.

You are legally tax resident in France from the day of your arrival if your intention is to make France your permanent home.

My opinion FWIW is that if you pitched up in France, rented a home, opened a small business, you could get most of this sorted quite quickly assuming decent conversational French or paid-for help. Certainly within three months. Family benefits might take longer because you need a letter from Newcastle confirming you are no longer getting UK child benefit.

Hazardswan · 23/10/2018 23:00

bigchoc I'd love to leave but suspect your right...

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:01

goldensky Sorry, no useful ideas.
I just expect things to get worse for your vulnerable clients
in the case of no deal, much worse, because there will be cuts everywhere and welfare is the favourite target; also people will be much less likely to donate if they are worried about their own families going short later.

Now may be too late re the house, worriedMutha
The property market is slow and dropping, so you might not sell for an acceptable price - and yopur buyer may pull out at the last moment if there is bad news.

Maybe let the place furnished and work abroad for a few years ?
For that, you need to be applying NOW for jobs

I moved to a job in Germany a few days after the ref - but I already had it lined up as a fallback -
sold my Thames flat asap, changed the proceeds to Euros and transferred them

Mistigri · 23/10/2018 23:02

That's not to say I would recommend it (tax complications if no deal Brexit).

I'd consider a holiday over the Brexit date but only if I had resources and no regular healthcare needs.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 23:07

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Westministenders: A Change of Mood
BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 23:09

Hazard As Misti confirms my own experience:

You need
. either to be self-supporting, e.g. pensioner, or well-off
. or speak the local language and can work enough to support the family
. or to have an employer who will sort out all paperwork and help find accommodation, i.e probably a well-paid professional mc job with working language English