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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.

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RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 20:48

I'm now wondering about that bet I told DH to put on DD to be the next PM months and months ago....

Its a bet I want us to lose!

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Mrsr8 · 22/10/2018 20:49

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borntobequiet · 22/10/2018 20:49

And my £10 on an election this year. Oh wise Westminstenders, do I still stand a chance?

Mrsr8 · 22/10/2018 20:51

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Hazardswan · 22/10/2018 20:55

You've lot read my mind I was going to place a bet but I didn't understand the odds and the websites etc Blush. I've never been into a betting shop in my life. Also do you bet on a bad outcome so you can be consoled if you win?

SusanWalker · 22/10/2018 21:04

Just found these on Twitter

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Westministenders: A Change of Mood
RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 21:08

At the time, and this was months and month ago, there were various things that said Davis to me. DH had £10 sitting in betting account doing nothing, because we really don't gamble and I said, "just stick it on that". I'd got May right but hadn't put money on it so though what the hell.

So no it wasn't a consolation thing. It was a genuine though that Davis would be the only one to persuade Remainers. That was because of his immediate reaction after the GE when he thought May was about to go and he made noises about a compromise over Brexit. Then she stayed and he did a quick reverse. Then eventually went full on crazy, outquitting Johnson.

The reason I thought it might be him have long since evaporated. But he has provided he follows the political wind...

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Mrsr8 · 22/10/2018 21:22

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Peregrina · 22/10/2018 21:34

Davis follows the political wind? Yes, perhaps, but since he was another lazy so and so, he will make a complete and utter hash of Brexit, and will get the blame. So he might just be giving May a get out of jail free card - in that she won't join the list of the most incompetent PMs post war.

And yes, we do just have time for a GE before Christmas.

SwedishEdith · 22/10/2018 21:40

I've always thought DD was the only one who'd looked into the abyss and seen how out of his depth both he and the UK are. Hence all the stupid chuckling, nervous glasses twirling and faux calm talking. Doesn't mean he's going to say anything meaningful but he's the one, I think, knows it's shit and isn't quite as despised as Gove and Johnson.

In other news, remember when we used to say the UK was obsessed with home ownership? These figures are alarming. Good and bad about these, of course, but the main driver must be inaccessible house prices for the young. I wonder how our rental market compares - average rent, tenants' rights etc?

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Hazardswan · 22/10/2018 21:43

I was inspired by the tweet to start playing the lotto every wed and sat. I will now be inspired by you lot to place my first bet ShockGrin

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
BigChocFrenzy · 22/10/2018 22:00

EU won’t accept May’s plan to break Brexit deadlock, says Verhofstadt

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-wont-accept-mays-plan-break-brexit-deadlock-says-verhofstadt-190114330.html?guccounter=1

European Parliament Brexit chief Guy Verhofstadt has rejected Theresa May’s proposals to get a Brexit deal over the line, saying they breach her commitments over the Irish border.
...
She told MPs that a UK-wide customs union with the EU or an extension of the implementation period would be acceptable – but only if the UK “could not be kept in either arrangement indefinitely.”

That was immediately rejected by Verhofstadt, who restated the EU’s long standing position
that any backstop must function “unless and until” a permanent solution is in place.

And, speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg,
he suggested that UK is now rowing back on the commitment to the backstop made by May in December.

“Everybody thought, and we thought, that there was a previous commitment to have such a backstop.

“[Now] our British counterparts have said that there has to be time limited.
But we all know that a time limited backstop is not a backstop"

prettybird · 22/10/2018 22:24

I do like some of the "95% of the deal is done" comparisons....

• Jumping 95% of the way across a chasm without a safety harness
• Launching a rocket with 95% of the fuel to get to the ISS
• Building a bridge 95% of the way across a river so that it doesn't meet in the middle
• Having 95% of the cash to pay for the tank of petrol that you've already put into the car

Grin
RedToothBrush · 22/10/2018 22:25

Well it looks as if May has survived another day as leader. Nothing in the 10pm news drop tonight that seems too concerning.

I'm guessing Wed is the day if it happens. But we shall see what tomorrow brings...

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Peregrina · 22/10/2018 22:41

I do like some of the "95% of the deal is done" comparisons....

Some of these you can get away with - like not quite having enough money for the tank of petrol but sweet talking your way into getting the cashier to let you off the last few £s, because it's late, and he wants to cash up and close.

Or the half completed bridge, like the one in Avignon, which becomes a tourist attraction and a nursery rhyme. A time and money waster, but as long as it's not like the old Tay Bridge, with a train going over, liveable with.

But jumping 95% of the way across a canyon. Er no.

mathanxiety · 23/10/2018 06:01

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States

^^ On martial law in the US.
It's not unheard of, but only a remote possibility.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 07:14

Stewart Jackson
Strategic advice & counsel on making Brexit a success. Was Conservative MP 2005/17. Formerly Special Advisor & Chief of Staff @DExEUGov 2017/18

This is his reply to a picture of a little boy in a GOSH hospital bed, who couldn't go on the march.

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
woman11017 · 23/10/2018 07:21

Nissan hosting pro Remain event in North East.

@NE4EU
We are ectastic to announce this @OFOCBrexit event will be held in NISSAN this Thursday - NOT TO BE MISSED! With @Femi_Sorry @JasonJHunter from 3 blokes in a pub and Jack Dart www.facebook.com/events/181516059396479/?notif_t=plan_edited&notif_id=1540224696686668

BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 07:24

It is possible that Trump might have a tantrum and declare martial law in a region that mostly contained people he didn't like

e.g. inner cities with mostly an African American population, any area that kept protesting his policies by demonstrations or civil disobedience

possibly even just to repress the vote of his opponents

  • sometimes Trump's "crazy" actions are cold-blooded calculation by a sociopathic narcissist
lonelyplanetmum · 23/10/2018 07:27

Is that Stewart Jackson is still in receipt of any taxpayer's money? He needs to resign and apologise to the child and parents now. Then make a sizeable donation to Great Ormond Street.






BigChocFrenzy · 23/10/2018 07:28

woman If that was referring to patients in hospital, it might be hate speech
it is certainly a vile insult against anyonem using that horrible old word for LDs.

woman11017 · 23/10/2018 07:32

Stewart Jackson was referring to a picture of a little boy in GOSH. Children there are usually extremely ill. Sad

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
Mrsr8 · 23/10/2018 07:34

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ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 23/10/2018 07:50

He said what Shock

That’s utterly disgusting. What the hell is wrong with him? This country feels so much nastier since 2016, was it always this way and I just didn’t notice?

Mrsr8 · 23/10/2018 07:51

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