Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

Brexit politicans were criticised recently for blaming civil servants for the Brexit mess, instead of politicians on their own side.

However, at least some of the intelligence and military look as nasty as the pols.
Menacing.

Starting to remind me of the 1960s, when every crackpot general had a coup scheme to stop the dreaded "socialism" of Harald Wilson's govt.
Now the target of the military / intelligence establishment is anything hindering Brexit and Empire 2.0

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1032568/Brexit-news-Theresa-May-EU-negotiator-Brexiteer-ex-MI6-boss

‘He’s HOODWINKING the public’ - ex-MI6 chief ATTACKS Theresa May’s top Brexit negotiator

THERESA MAY’s leading Brexit advisor is “hoodwinking” the public and needs to answer “serious questions of improper conduct” according to ex-MI6 boss Sir Richard Dearlove.

< btw, if you like to read Brexit Delusion Central, read a nighbouring story on "Barnier begging the Uk for more time"
We probably will have to crash out without a deal

Otherwise, the mad tabloid-reading section of Leavers will forever be claiming they were robbed of a true Brexit and voting for nastier & nastier politicians

• like the US voting for Trump because successive generations of politicians wouldn't tell them they can't have their tax cuts and eat 'em >

@GD12
Have you told them we'll be in breach of WTO rules? Anybody have a link to that?

Just checked Le Monde online and they have this relatively optimistic headline:

Brexit : « Le risque de “no deal” est là, mais il est relativement faible »

GD12, Kenn Since Leavers keep saying we'll be fine on WTO rules, it's astonishing how ignorant they are of those rules !

A trading block that is a Customs Union always needs a hard border for goods, by definition, or it can't possibly work

The relevant part of WTO rules is that all 3rd countries must be treated equally, unless the bloc or country has a trade agreement specifying otherwise.

So the only alternatives for the EU, in the event of no deal specifying otherwise, are:
either
a hard border with the UK - which they will have to choose
or
no hard borders with any other WTO country - i,e. dismantling the entire EU Customs Union and Single market, which is basically the entire EU

Germany's Die Welt on Arlene Foster - that she's the person who will decide whether there's a no deal or not (and they don't seem to be optimistic about it) - she could plunge Europe into chaos.

Die Frau, die über den Brexit entscheidet
Arlene Foster wird am Ende entscheiden, ob das Königreich einen “Brexit“-Deal mit der EU schließt. Bei Verhandlungen in Brüssel zieht sie rote Linien, verteilt Ohrfeigen an Unterhändler und könnte Europa ins Chaos stürzen.

KennDodd Here's what I could see.
Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects
European Union (EU28): Kantar Public poll finds that voters in all EU28 countries would vote remain member in the European Union - on average 80%. The lowest support for remain is in the United Kingdom, with 60% approving the country's EU membership. #Brexit #EuropeanUnion

^However, at least some of the intelligence and military look as nasty as the pols.
Menacing^

See Turkey and US.

Here’s the link Kenn:

mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

I see that the Daily Mail is reporting that expats in France would be "illegals". What the statement actually says is that we would become citizens of a "third country" and would need a titre de séjour. All of which we know.

Hands up who is surprised by the bargaining chips?

Interesting results.

iirc, Belgium is the highest (or at least one of the highest) contributors per capita - yet it supports the EU 86% to 14%

Greece, which was supposedly so hard done by by the EU, supports it 72% to 28%.

And Ireland, which was supposed to follow the UK out to make Brexit easier for the UK is the strongest (equal with Luxembourg) at 92% to 8%.

Not quite what the UK Government or the BBC wants to let people know hear

The French aren't spending all this money for fun:

http://www.senat.fr/leg/pjl18-009.html

[Helped by Google translate !]

"The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union
will lead to the restoration of veterinary, sanitary, phytosanitary and safety controls and customs formalities.

These checks will have to be put in place on the day of withdrawal in case of exit without agreement,
or at the end of the transition period in case of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement.

At present, with regard to the Channel / North Sea seaboard, border posts of veterinary and phytosanitary border inspection services (SIVEP) are present in Le Havre, Dunkirk, Saint Malo and Brest.

However, they are not sized to control all the batches coming from the United Kingdom
or do not have facilities approved for all types of flows (absence of control facilities for live animals in Le Havre and Dunkirk in particular).

In addition, the entry points to, among others, Roscoff, Cherbourg, Caen-Ouistreham, Dieppe and Calais as well as the Channel Tunnel do not have border posts to date.

To fulfill their obligations, these services need the provision by the operators of premises adapted to the nature and volume of the flows introduced from the United Kingdom.

In addition, a location in a restricted access zone could be retained in certain entry points, which should be subject to appropriate security.

In addition, carrying out these checks will take a significant amount of time, which will slow down the flow of traffic and may therefore quickly lead to congestion in the port, rail and road infrastructures.
< with corresponding queues at the British end >

In order to maintain the fluidity of the port and ensure the safety of the various convoys, adequate parking areas will have to be created.

Improvements may therefore include the construction of roads, car parks, buildings, control areas
or the installation of any equipment necessary for carrying out the controls concerned."

I know it’s an ancient post now cupcake (struggling to keep up!), but...

The white english leave voter I know is the least xenophobic and nicest out of the group above. For her it's purely about local identity: the right to feel and be proudly English.

Why can’t she feel and be proudly English whilst in the EU?

This is the problem I think - the difference between ‘us’ and ‘them’. I can feel English whether in or out of the EU. My pride in being English has pretty much disappeared since the vote though.

the right to feel and be proudly English.

So fuck the union then.

Caen has just about enough space to 'hold' each ferry worth of lorries (3 ferries in 24 hours roughly) and as I commented this morning it is now pretty secure. No idea where they might put lorries coming from Portsmouth for checking, as it is only a small coastal port.
Of course Portsmouth feeds Le Havre, (a lot of Spanish freight) Caen and Cherbourg. Requisition the Naval dockyards?

I used to be proudly European, British and Scottish - in that order. That was nearly 40 years ago. I spent a year working in France as part of my degree explaining that (as well as constantly having to remind them "je ne suis pas anglaise" )

I am now proudly Scottish and European equally. Note the difference. That happened about 20 years ago.

Brexiteer Hoey being clear about wanting Ireland to leave the EU too.

If a backstop is such a good idea to sort the border issue why do we not go for a backstop around the entire British Isles then Irish Republic can be part of it too.

mobile.twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1052512734401765377

What arrogance!!! (I know I shouldn't be surprised, given the individual concerned )

She is having her arse handed to her on a plate in the replies

There were lots of people at the Tory Party conference coming out with a similar thing. Some were even saying Ireland should rejoin the crown and the become British.

As I said yesterday. The only party coming out of Brexit smelling of roses is the EU. Quite a few impressed countries around the world thinking "The Europeans really know how to deal with shit."

Kate Hoey has discredited herself enough without this bullshit. I know she's from NI but she should know better than expecting foreign countries (I.e. Ireland) to sort UK problems out for the UK. Why should Ireland leave 26 other mates on the off chance that an old boss will be nice to it.

I don't know which is worse:
Kate Hoey knowing what the GFA is or the Tory MPs who don't know what the GFA is when they talk about NI and Brexit.

It's a tough call.

The union is ever so important to May though. Really. She said.

FWIW I am a child of the universe, Northern European with a UK and NI passport.

Well, the union certainly got a damn sight more important to her since she threw away her majority in a pointless general election and became reliant on the DUP.... 🙄 🙄 🙄

Placemat King 👑

Checking in. Thanks red.