Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

A school mum friend of mine, an ardent and rather sneery Leaver (we don't talk politics) posted an evening standard picture on FB showing the astonishing crowds at the March. She didn't comment. If you knew her and her posting history you would be amazed she even acknowledged it privately.
Hopefully it has made her (and people who hold similar views) think.

Her strategy has failed so now she is stuck between backing off or jumping of the cliff... I just hope she backs off

The trouble is the direction she jumps will be for the benefit of the Conservative party not the country

bbc has removed all march coverage from the news page this morning apart from a photo of one person way down in must see. Yet theyve still got multiple stories from earlier in the week.
complaint duly submitted.

The march was big news in Germany too, but the overall image of the UK has plummeted over the last 2+ years:

Der Spiegel: View of the UK from Germany

A scorching analysis, but pretty typical opinions here.
Polls coninue to show a huge majority of Germans are against the EU making concessions, now 81% vs 13%

http://m.spiegel.de/international/europe/brexit-talks-watching-a-country-make-a-fool-of-itself-a-1234143.html

The United Kingdom is currently demonstrating how a country can make a fool of itself before the eyes of the entire world.

What was once the most powerful empire on earth is now a country that can't even find its way to the door without tripping over its own feet.
.....
Almost everyone who has a say in Brexit belongs to the British establishment,
meaning they went to an outrageously expensive private school and completed their studies at Cambridge or Oxford.

In this regard, too, we have been enlightened.

What in the name of God do they learn there?
It certainly can't be skills that would prepare them for the real world.

Or would you trust a lawyer who regularly shows up to negotiations so completely unprepared that they have to be broken off again after just a few minutes?
...
< comment on a interview of May >

The disadvantage of being intelligent is that it hurts to watch someone act dumb.
Simplemindedness protects against this pain, which is why in politics, it is often better to be dumb than intelligent.

I’ve complained to the BBC. I seem to spend a lot of time complaining to them. You can do it via the website but I find it therapeutic to speak to someone:
0370 010 0222
“Meghan goes solo” has more prominence plus a non story about someone called Charlie Sloth (with a name like that should be appointed Brexit Sec pronto).

Big Choc I’ve subscribed to Spiegel online (in English) on the basis of that article alone. It nails it.

born Unfortunately, Der Spiegel, like the rest of the German press, doesn't discuss Brexit much
This is because such a huge majority of people think that the UK is making itself look ridiculous, so there aren't pros and cons to discuss.

The online version is free, so I save my money by just checking weekly for the rare Brexit story

Sorry I meant signed up to, not subscribed! My only subscription is to Private Eye...I’m not stingy but semi retired and trying to keep outgoings to a minimum. But that one article was a zinger.

Most serious papers think that May has agreed to the Irish backstop,
but at best 50:50 whether she has the courage and the ability, to such a deal through the HoC:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/19/is-theresa-may-any-closer-brexit-deal-after-brussels-summit

First, the commission has no intention of abandoning the Northern Ireland-only backstop
that so enrages the Democratic Unionists, and to which May reiterated her staunch opposition at her Brussels press conference on Thursday.

The EU27 still insist it must be included in the legal text of the withdrawal agreement,
but they are willing to help out with her political difficulties by offering solemn undertakings to crack on with negotiating the UK’s version.

Similarly, Michel Barnier’s team have been working hard on how to “de-dramatise” any border checks that would be necessary in the Irish Sea under their version of the backstop – siting them away from ports, for example – to help assuage critics’ practical concerns.

Secondly, on whether the backstop risks becoming “indefinite”, May reassured Leo Varadkar when they met that her government did not resile from the promise it signed up to last December,
that backstop arrangements would remain in place “unless and until” a viable alternative is negotiated that avoids new checks.

That rules out writing an end date into the deal, as some of her cabinet have been pressing for;
but could allow a break clause – some kind of mechanism for Britain to say it thinks it has met the conditions, and ask to exit the backstop.
< so that depends on the final deal in several years time, or the magical IT solution that would take even longer / forever >

born Have you read Ivan Richards'speeches ?
He is producing imo by far the best analysis of how we got here and what our options are.
Pity the govt forced him to retire, as he seems out greatest "expert" in this field

His Cambridge speech this month is v long, but brilliant:
https://share.trin.cam.ac.uk/sites/public/Comms/Rogersbrexittasrevolution.pdf

Thanks, BigChoc. Off out now but will be good reading this evening.

Civil servants have reportedly begun contingency planning for a second Brexit referendum amid fears Theresa May is unable to get parliament to back a deal

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/99202/civil-servants-%E2%80%98war-gaming-second-brexit-referendum%E2%80%99-amid

Yeah cat all those pesky people, really messed it up.

Strong remainer that I am, I do get pissed off when German/French media get sneery towards the UK. Can't explain why - it's visceral!

Yesterdays march will have strengthened the EUs position tremendously, as it's spiked the guns of any UK PM who thought they could play billy big balls about their "mandate". Pretty much the same way the UK has used internal protests to strengthen it's hand in the past.

I'm guessing the only reason Theresa May is still there, is because the two opposing sides that are jostling beneath her are afraid that if they push her, their opponents will benefit.

Keir Starmer's just confirmed labour commitment to People's Vote on Marr?

I don't watch bbc either, since they became so 'sneery' to democracy and facts.

@sturdyAlex
Have now heard it called the “so-called People’s Vote” from four different journos on @BBCNews. This points to an editorial decision to comment on the #PeoplesVote. Pretty extraordinary considering the only other such editorial interference is the “so-called Islamic State”. WTF

Kudos to Sturgeon for refusing to colloborate.

Any sign yet of the biggest (and most peaceful) march since Iraq war on bbc website?

BigChoc
Well if the press are reporting that TM is going to agree to a backstop then this article this morning just makes no sense , or just shows how divided they are if Rabb and May can’t sing from the same hymn sheet.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45930380

I am utterly knackered after the March yesterday , but not too knackered to write to my MP this morning. A “yes sir” Tory but also a former NI minister who once labelled the DUP mad in conversation with me when assisting me with an issue during his time as Minister. I intend to remind him of this and hope to reach his reasonable side.

I don't find the foreign press sneery. I find them genuinely gobsmacked and confused as to why a country (or rather its establishment and government) should be voluntarily shooting itself in the foot on the most dubious of mandates with proven illegal practices from the "winning" side.

And we are the suckers who will have to suffer the consequences

Other sites referring to “the so called People’s vote:
The spectator,
City AM
And Guido Fawkes

What a surprise !

Keir Starmer's just confirmed labour commitment to People's Vote on Marr

Thanks for that woman I was trying to watch Andrew Marr this morning but the kids kept interrupting. I think I missed this bit.

Really hope those rumours of civil servants secretly planning a 2nd ref are true. I’m about worried by the polls though, apparently it’s still very much neck and neck as to whether Leave or Remai. Would come out on top.

twitter.com/afneil/status/1053744665181282304

hurricanefliss

I speak both languages. It's more a matter of utter bafflement than sneering- as well as growing irritation at the UK's seemingly perpetual sense of entitlement.

Incidentally, try imagining being a French or German citizen reading the news here for the last two years...

@Remain_Labour
@Keir_Starmer again reaffirms that the #Labour leadership is not ruling out a campaign to #Remain in the EU on #Marr
Our campaign was set up to ensure our party campaigns for #Remain. We have plenty of work to do, but we are getting closer. Join us!

I note that the BBC gives equal coverage to the People's March and Farage at the bottom of in this article - 3 paragraphs each - while conveniently not mentioning the numbers at Farage's "rally"

Brexit: Extend transition only to scrap backstop, says Dominic Raab
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45930380