Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

Oo reading the local paper. Theres a story about housing and Brexit.

It says houses in the area are selling slower and people are holding off selling until next year. Especially in the better areas (I live in a better area). There could also be panic selling - especially of buy to lets - due to uncertainity. Its from a housing developer.

Fascinating.

I read these threads daily because they help me to understand Brexit thanks to some very intelligent informed posters backed up with links and info, so I don't want to read posts that are deliberately trying to derail the threads with curt phrasing.
Don't like these threads scroll past and start your own thread

I wish May would remind Gove, Foster, Johnson and all the other clowns who are dictating to her that the Good Friday Agreement is an International Treaty. Spell it out to them, because they are so dense.

Imagine having to do Brexit for toddlers. Cos thats what May has to do with her flipping MPs.

No wonder Gove had, had enough of experts. Just how inadequate is he?

Ah the same old tactics have come out again I see. What's next on the bingo card? We haven't needed it for a while and I can't remember who had it last.

So No 10 saying extending transition won't cost...

norman smith @BBCNormanS
Govt dispute transition extension wd cost billions. Its one of the things "to be teased" out in negotiations says David Lidington @BBCr4today

Chris Morris @BBCChrisMorris
Extending the transition would obviously cost billions because it would extend full UK payments into the EU budget. It would also extend full membership of the single market and customs union with no friction in trade. You get what you pay for. #Brexit

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
EU source tells me there would of course be ‘financial implications’ if transition was extended

Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode
^We don't know how much extra yr Brexit transition would cost.
We do know UK net contribution was £8.9bn in 2017 and British rebate was worth £5.6bn.^

To sum up. No. 10 position is to extend transition into EU budget for free, whilst the EU's position is if transition is extended it'd cost even more than EU membership because of the negative impact of removing the rebate.

That seems like a negogition in which we will come out lucky with paying the same as we do now.

We do know the EU wants to scrap the rebate.

2bees - most people on these threads will usually post up links to interesting articles, which most of the rest of us will usually read. Or we will post copies of tweets (which may themselves have links) from people like Faisal Islam and Beth Rigby of Sky News, Laura Kuensburg of the BBC, Robert Peston, Ian Dunt, David Allan Green, Richard North, politicians' own tweets (which may or may not condemn them).

So we see articles (sometimes copied and pasted instead of/in addition to the link) from The Times, the FT, the Telegraph, the Guardian, die Welt, Le Monde, the Washington Post, the NY Post, the Irish Times....

And from pesky experts like the Chief Exec of the Food and Drink Federation, the Road Haulage Association, the CBI, the pharmaceutical industry, AstraZeneca....

And then we will also form our own opinions, educated by years of reading these threads, sometimes based on our own experience, challenging the canards of the Leavers

I wish May would remind Gove, Foster, Johnson and all the other clowns who are dictating to her that the Good Friday Agreement is an International Treaty. Spell it out to them, because they are so dense.

If you follow the catastrophist theorising, then Brexit is merely the starting gun on a bonfire of trading blocs and treaties. Maybe ignoring the GFA is the first step on that journey ?

A very serious question is what would happen if the UK simply pretended it had never signed the GFA ? Sanctions won't be much use against a country that's already managed to isolate itself from the world. Is there some sort of hivemind that ultimately, nothing would happen ? (When I say "nothing", I don't mean there wouldn't be turmoil of the most extreme kind. But the rest of the world has developed the skillz to ignore unpleasantness when it suits them).

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Cabinet source: "Obviously this has gone down like a cup of sick but any transition with a named end date is preferable to an open ended backstop. However it doesn't have a hope in hell in getting through unless it replaces the Northern Ireland only bit."

Translation: It hasn't a hope in hell in getting through.

I see that MNHQ have deleted the post about BC so they obviously agree that he/she/it was accusing her of lying

The Scottish Government has just announced that a case of BSE has been found in a cow in Aberdeenshire.

Not a good time for BSE to raise its head again

There's only one person on this thread denying the reality of life for the UK outside of the EU. Everyone else is fully aware of the facts.

But, ploppers gonna plop, so...

I see that MNHQ have deleted the post about BC so they obviously agree that he/she/it was accusing her of lying

A Brexiteer lying ?

Whatever next !?

"what would happen if the UK simply pretended it had never signed the GFA "
Fucking murder and mayhem.

The Scottish Government has just announced that a case of BSE has been found in a cow in Aberdeenshire.

I wonder if this is when "Scotland" is suddenly another country again ?

It's quite "fun" to speculate on what more could go wrong - I have to admit an agricultural crisis didn't occur to me. Here's my list so far, maybe we could start a new thread: What more could go wrong with Brexit ?

in no particular order ...

• royal death (especially the Queen) ?
• outbreak of flu (or other viral) epidemic ?
• extreme weather (particularly around the SW ...)

Link to BSE story. Here's hoping that it is a one-off and they can identify the source.

'Mad cow disease' at Aberdeenshire farm after BSE confirmed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-45901043

DGR - to add to that list, an agricultural crisis like BSE or, even worse, an outbreak of Foot & Mouth disease. That would scupper the UK's protein supply in the event of a No-Deal Brexit

red I'm sure we'd enjoy a cuppa and a natter if we ever met up, same with several other Westministenders 🍵

We are all from very different places on the political spectrum and have a wide range of incomes and ages;
some of us are disabled, or carers.

However, we all try to prioritise facts and analysis when debating or deciding

• that is the common factor, not race, religion, age or income

If it's relevant:

I haven't name-changed since 2013 when I joined MN.
I am very active on another board and I have posted about my race / family on many threads on various boards, where it has been relevant to the discussion

I have also posted about experiences of growing up very poor with a widowed disabled mother and how free uni education changed my life
I've posted about my late father growing up nearly starving in NE England during the 1920s & 1930s

The BSE outbreak, caused by changing established practice to save costs,
is one of the issues that makes the EU understandably cautious about British food imports post-Brexit,
if the UK is no longer bound by all EU rules & internal checks.

BSE spread around the EU and caused many deaths in other EU countries too
It put off some people from eating beef from anywhere, for years.
There are still checks throughout the EU, to avoid further cases

No10 believe the EU are ready to go all out no deal on them.
TM's idea of extending transition is to re-engage them.
Yep, that'll work.
'Give us what we want or we'll stay longer'.
Like an annoying relative who won't fuck off after Christmas dinner so you can get on with clearing up.

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1052883515954540544

Awful news about the BSE case

Can’t help but remember though how, in the 90s, John Major used the power of our veto to get talks moving to lift the EU ban on UK beef. I wonder where we’ll find such leverage in the future.

Delurking to say thanks for the link about a trade deal with the USA. I've done it and made my views very clear.

for you all. Thanks for all the information - I wouldn't know a quarter of what I do without these threads.

Well, on the bright side, if we can't sell our BSE beef to Europe there'll be lots to spare for us here in the UK. See? Food shortages are Project Fear, the Sunlit Uplands beckon, with lovely BSE steaks and burgers especially for proper patriotic Brits!

Just finally had a response from my MP re. the mail I sent him about post-Brexit medicine....

However, it’s a standard response saying he gets upwards of 700 mails a day and answers them in order of receipt. I can’t remember how long ago I sent the mail (sent via a form on his website so I don’t have a copy) but I’m confident it was weeks ago. I won’t hold my breath for an actual answer then

However to be fair to him he seems to be generally a good guy and sends regular constituency updates on his anti-Brexit activities.

Red, I have been trying to understand the purpose of a transition extension request at this time and I could only think that it might be a message to EU indicating that she’s serious about the WA.

Peston made some interesting points (but his posts make my eyes bleed):
www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2189575914700475/

On the bright side about BSE, it might make people turn vegetarian, so no to American hormone laced beef, and yes to helping stall climate change!