Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

[RedToothBrush]

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

*1. A deal needs to be agreed.

1. UK gov need to vote on the deal.
2. EU parliament need to vote on the deal*

And if there is no agreement from/with all parties, we leave with no deal as TM triggered Art 50 without any preparation?

Which is where I get confused on Labour voting a bad deal down. Then what? We leave with no deal as we run out of time?

It's becoming clear that the assurances made to MPs about a meaningful vote are about to reneged upon.
There was never going to be a meaningful vote due to timings. When your u finally reach an agreement at the eleven hour, there is no time left to go back to the drawing board because MPs don’t agree. It will be that or No Deal.
Once again are MPs so thick they couldn’t work that one out either?

Which btw is where TM has some power.
Because most MPs don’t want a No Deal, they will settled for anything else that will give a bit of breathing space to the uk. In the hope of getting what they want (which seems to be more the CU than anything else).

It's becoming clear that the assurances made to MPs about a meaningful vote are about to reneged upon.

As predicted in these threads at the time.

Many thanks, math
That was a very informative answer
I wish the UK govt had such advice on Ireland !

The danger of A50 all along has been that no deal is the automatic default, unless a Withdrawal Agreement is approved by all parties to define a deal.

The promise of an HoC vote was always pretty meaningless,
because as posted repeatedly, in our system of govt the HoC can block bills, but it can't really force a govt to propose a bill.

The HoC has the nuclear option of forcing a GE, but hardly any MPs would ever vote their own party out of office, so that threat is rarely practical or serious.
The Fixed Term Parliament Act has made it more difficult too, requiring more concentrated effort.

Michael Caine showing his ignorance about Brexit in the interview with Charlie on BBC Breakfast

The "they need us more than we need them" argument, the "has anyone told the head of BMW and VW about massively increased tariffs?" argument (yes honestly!) and the "if they won't let planes land in Europe, then we won't let planes land in the UK, now what are you going to do?" argument

But there again, like Roger Daltrey, he fits into the old, white, rich and privileged. (he might not have been born privileged, but he is now)

Barnier was given a clear mandate & terms for negotiation, which was agreed with all E27 heads of govt, the EU Parliament and the EU Commission.

He updates all parties frequently and checks if they want to continue / update the terms on which he negotiates.

So, unlike the chaotic UK side, anything agreed by the EU side will be formally approved and signed by them
BUT
their approval process requires about 3 months minimum, for the EP and about 35 national and regional parliaments to examine and vote on the deal
AND
the European Parliament term will be dissolved when its term of office ends on 18 April 2019.
The EP elections will be 23-26 May 2019,
but I gather it takes some time afterwards for the new EP to have set up all its committees etc and be able to actually start any approval process.

The EP dates are why extending A50 by more than 1 month maximum would be so complicated and would mean in practice extending it by quite a few months as minimum.

So, it is much more convenient to keep Brexit Day as planned on 29 March, but extend the transition time afterwards.
However, this of course requires the UK to sign the Withdrawal Agreement - with NI backstop unless the RoI give in, which looks v unlikely atm

No WA means no transition, just crash out no deal
and the UK post-Brexit in a very weak negotiating position

Australia, like other countries, refers to the UK as a "distressed negotiator" for non-EU deals, even assuming negotiations during a transition.
After a crash out Brexit, the UK would be a "totally desperate negotiator"

Am I right in saying that Michael Caine no longer lives in the UK? So why is he on pontificating about something which will only affect him peripherally?

Pretty Many of the wealthy will either profit from hedging etc, or be unaffected by Brexit
Some will lose.
Most of the poorer 50% of the population, those without very marketable skills, will lose.
Indeed most of the 95% will lose out.

The big problem is widespread ignorance of the consequences of Brexit, whether people are rich or poor.

The difference is that most wealthy people will not have their lives ruined, but poor people cannot afford to lose anything

Prettybird

‘White, rich, privileged’

Sounds very much like the inhabitants of these threads...

Peregrina - I checked before posting, as I was going to add " who doesn't even live here ", but according to Wikipedia, he lives in Leatherhead (although he does have an apartment in Miami Beach).

What annoys me about his comments is their sheer ignorance, promulgating falsehoods.

Nope, not many here in the 5% too wealthy / mobile to be affected group
Several are worried about essential meds for themselves or their family members

We haven't done a colour check- it's never come up before ! - but I'm mixed race BAME

Motherof

Labour are only in it for the opportunism of a unexpected general election.

I expect Jeremy Corbyn would be delighted if that was accompanied by a simultaneous break with with the eu. Literally all his Christmas’ at once...

So 10degrees, you are calling BigChoc a liar?
How do we know that you are not white, rich and privileged?

Peregrina

You are on the platform called the internet. Anyone can be what they like.

For instance, It grants you the anonymity to preach your remain nonsense.

Me? Im a lesbian lamppost from the planet zarg.

See how it works?

10 BC has stated her racial heritage a number of times before you ‘graced’ these boards with your presence. Accusing someone of lying about their race because they don’t support Brexit is pretty low, even by your standards

Would anyone like some tablet?

Here's a picture of a good batch. I occasionally send out some as "Random Acts of Kindness" and at the moment have quite a lot left over from making a batch for ds to take back up to Uni. I'm currently on the MN BootCamp and all that sugar is not compatible with the HFLC WoE - so I need to get away from the temptation and out the house

You have to admit that the standard of debate from most leavers is about as well informed as a lamppost could do. I say most, because there were one or two thoughtful leavers, but they seem to have departed from the scene.

Pcplums

Please highlight where I accused anyone of lying.

The only lies being told are by the likes of those in this thread who continue to deny the reality of a future outside the eu.

Is tablet like a brittle sort of toffee?

Well I live on benefits in a HA property in one of the poorest regions of the UK. I have no savings and no pension. Believe me or don't believe me, I don't really care. I know what's the truth. And I know that I am going to be significantly disadvantaged by brexit, unlike Michael Caine.

10degreeIf you’re talking to all the lurkers like me, you’re doing a really good job.