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Brexit

Westministenders: Deadline Day #1

981 replies

RedToothBrush · 16/10/2018 22:41

We have hit another Deadline Day.

As it stands, the EU are looking for more progress. May is digging in her heels by suggesting there is new a requirement for backstop to a backstop. The backstop to all intents and purposes is the GFA. So May is saying in effect, that the EU are forcing her to put in provisions to protect an international agreement we are signed up to, and if we breech it we risk peace in NI.

After lots of noise it seems that the Cabinet have decided to stick by May. For now.

The EU look like they are talking as if their meeting next month will exclude the UK and just go straight to No Deal planning.

There is also other talk of alternatives to allow the UK to stay in the customs union. But theres not much to that and it still doesn't solve the ERG and the DUP problem.

May is vastly unestimating how much the ERG and the DUP want to break the GFA. Which is a huge misjudgment.

There is also talk of the final final Deadline Day actually being Dec 13. For various reasons its not. Thats 29th March.

So Wednesday is Deadline Day #1. Expect more.

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2018 01:46

Math Anyone else with deep Irish knowledge ?

Sinn Fein used to be very much on the left
But they seem more on the right now - lower taxes instead of public spending 😗

Is that entirely opportunistic vote-chasing, or genuinely where they have ended up on the political spectrum, years after the GFA ?

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-the-ipsos-mrbi-poll-fine-gael-still-in-the-driving-seat-1.3664441

"... the budget strategy of focusing resources on improving public services rather than cutting taxes has not enthused the voters, with a majority favouring tax cuts instead.

Only Fine Gael supporters approve of the strategy while a majority of Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin voters would have preferred tax cuts."

BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2018 01:58

OT, but I'm disgusted the West trades - crawls for trade - to is isgustig Saudi regime,
who abused their embassy privilege in Turkey to kidnap, torture and murder a journalist

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/khashoggi-s-fingers-severed-in-brutal-interrogation-1.3666974?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fus%2Fkhashoggi-s-fingers-severed-in-brutal-interrogation-1.3666974

His killers were waiting when Jamal Khashoggi walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul two weeks ago.

They severed his fingers during an interrogation
and later beheaded and dismembered him,
haccording to details from audio recordings published in the Turkish news media on Wednesday.

mathanxiety · 18/10/2018 05:05

BCF
Ireland doesn't have a long tradition of comprehensive public services or very much of the spirit that animated the British Labour Party when it was first established.

Ireland was for a very important 100 years before independence a nation of small tenant farmers, and the main issue that brought people together (Parnell built the Home Rule movement on this) was tenant rights, and land ownership reform, effectively, the right to own your own farm. Small farmers tend to have a strong impulse to make their own way. Ireland had very little industry, and even though there were strikes in the early years of the 20th century and unions definitely grew in the course of the 20th century, the main political issue tended to be the 'national' question, with little or no left/right divide.

Both of the main parties, Fianna Fail (ALDE Group in the European Parliament) and Fine Gael (EPP Group in the European Parliament) are centre to right of centre, and they accounted for the vast majority of votes cast all through the 20th century. Labour really did not catch the imagination of the public at all. Fianna Fail positioned itself quite successfully as the voice of the small farmer and the urban poor for many decades.

Personal taxation rates in Ireland were very high in the 70s and 80s. This was a time when many of the foundations of the modern Irish economy were laid down, requiring a lot of investment in education, health and physical infrastructure (with massive help from the EEC). People grumbled and there was little to see initially for all the money that went straight to the government, but eventually the economy took off and Ireland left the 'Second World'.

(To illustrate the difference in priorities between Ireland and the UK, in Ireland money was spent on free school bus services that enabled children in rural areas to get to school and the rolling out of the community school model all over the country, often eradicating a county-run vocational/private, religious order-run academic divide in many counties that reflected a have/have not divide in society. Community schools tend to cater for most aspirations.
Money was not spent on a system like the NHS. When people in Ireland have some discretionary income they tend to buy private health insurance.)

Since the financial crisis, there has been a certain amount of balking (to say the least) at the idea that the taxpayer must carry the can for the cute hoors who stole millions and millions and crashed the economy, and deep suspicion that not even half of the story of what was done in the 90s and 2000s has come to light. I think that IT poll reflects that.

The poll also suggests about 44% of people surveyed would favour a general election. This either reflects unhappiness with the individual bank balance or a feeling on the part of many voters that their party could emerge in a strong position, with SF voters probably feeling particularly buoyant. The popularity of Varadkar is high, reflecting enthusiasm for his handling of Brexit and contact with EU leadership.

goo.gl/images/prCix8
Sinn Fein within the UK political compass.

goo.gl/images/2DGD7M
SF within the Irish political compass.

Sinn Fein sit in the European United Left/Nordic Green Left European Parliamentary Group, a left wing group that includes parties that are socialist/communist/vaguely redistributive/green.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_United_Left%E2%80%93Nordic_Green_Left

This is a good quote from a Reddit forum on SF, where it stands -
Sinn Fein in the Republic are a populist/nationalist party, in the north they are everything they railed against before the split in Sinn Fein, a non-abstentionist/centrist/nationalist party finally locked into a peace process rather than a protracted war.

The Workers Party (formerly Sinn Fein) could be considered the left wing Sinn Fein while Sinn Fein as it sits in government today is a populist party, perhaps even 'populist socialist' appealing to the hopes and fears of the general people with an eye fixated on a "United Ireland", if elected that facade will likely be dropped.

Sinn Fein today was born out of the rejection of Marxist/Left leaning elements within its own movement in the 1970's, the current leadership (Adams etc) sided with the provisionals in that split. In the Republic Sinn Fein, as a populist party have moved into a position neglected by Labour for a number of years, that of the defacto "left wing" alternative.

They have done so by adopting much of the language and ideas of their former colleagues in the Workers Party. If Sinn Fein are elected, they'll move back into their standard position as they have in the north
www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/2tv9no/how_leftwing_are_sinn_fein_really/

To a certain extent the comments under that one about the relevance of the 'political compass' diagrams to Irish politics ring true. Irish political stances are very fluid; consensus politics tends to be the order of the day, which makes attempts to graph the usual divides look a bit silly.

Here is another comment on the same Reddit page, from 'Cyridius', that illustrates the fluidity well:
This is a very complex question and it really comes down to "How left wing are the working class?".

Sinn Féin is populist left. That means they are at least nominally on the left, and they have Socialist rhetoric.

What makes Sinn Féin different to SYRIZA is that Sinn Féin is a singular entity - it's a self-made party, not a coalition of radicals from already established organisations. About 30-40% of SYRIZA are actual Communists, the rest would be more akin to Sinn Féin. So the question of SYRIZA and how radical they will behave is fairly up in the air. We know there's a large Communist contingent who are very radical - the rest, they'll be as radical as they're forced to be by the population.

This is the case with Sinn Féin. They're a populist left organisation and they don't want to break with Capitalism in a revolutionary sense. Even in a nominal way, breaking with Capitalism doesn't seem to come onto Sinn Féin's agenda in any serious capacity. So how "far left" Sinn Féin behaves is entirely dependent on how far left their support base forces them to be, through means of mass working class struggle, such as protests, strikes, occupation of work places etc. and the demands working class organisations with mass support put forward.

I'm a member of the Socialist Party and we discuss the idea of a Sinn Féin coalition with us quite often in the case of a general election in which they win but don't get a majority. We know ourselves and our strategy is geared around the fact that Sinn Féin is not really radical, that they've supported austerity, that on the council level they're definitely much more to the center and even right.

So our stance would be to coalition and set up a series of red line issues which we would collapse the government on if they were infringed on, and then to work outside the Dáil with mass workers' movements(Like the water charges protests, for example) to pressure Sinn Féin to move left from below. If we, a radical left organisation, are prepared to keep fighting Sinn Féin even when we're in coalition with them, that should be at least a little bit telling about how uncommitted they are to being on the left. The fact that they refuse to rule out coalitions with right wing parties like Fine Gael should also be telling.

mathanxiety · 18/10/2018 05:16

And bear in mind that proportional representation allows a voter to cast a vote in order of preference for up to (iirc) ten candidates who could all be very different in terms of political philosophy. So attempts to pin down Irish voters are also going to run aground a little...

woman11017 · 18/10/2018 06:50

Moldova Grudge Could Cost U.K. Access to $1.7 Trillion Projects

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-10-17/how-tiny-moldova-s-brexit-grudge-could-cost-u-k-1-7-trillion?__twitter_impression=true

ClashCityRocker · 18/10/2018 06:52

Can I check my understanding of what needs to happen to get a deal....

  1. A deal needs to be agreed.
  2. UK gov need to vote on the deal.
  3. EU parliament need to vote on the deal.

My understanding is that Barnier has a strong mandate from the EU27 so should a deal in theory be agreed, it shouldn't contain anything that the other EU27 will be totally unhappy with so hopefully the EU parliament wouldn't vote down the deal?

Theresa May on the other hand...

HesterThrale · 18/10/2018 06:53

Just completed the survey.

consultations.trade.gov.uk/policy/consultation-on-trade-negotiations-with-the-us/

HesterThrale · 18/10/2018 07:00

Russian trolls pushed for Brexit on referendum day

A vast network of Russian trolls on Twitter launched a “co-ordinated” push to spread pro-Leave messages on the day of the European Union referendum, new data from the social network confirms.
The publication by Twitter of posts from thousands of Russian and Iranian accounts going back almost ten years reveals the extent of both countries’ meddling to sow discord abroad and advance their own strategic interests.
Analysis by the Atlantic Council found that on the day of the Brexit poll the phrase #ReasonsToLeaveEU was tweeted 1,102 times. Ben Nimmo, a senior analyst at the think tank, told The Times that this looked like a “coordinating effort to make that hashtag trend”.
Mr Nimmo said that Russian disinformation included Islamophobic tweets after terrorist attacks in Britain. Iranian trolls posing as British leftwingers attempted to interact directly with Jeremy Corbyn, whose criticism of Israel they backed.
The release, the largest cache of such misinformation yet, comprises more than nine million tweets from 3,841 Russian-controlled accounts, and one million from 770 Iranian accounts.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10m-tweets-by-russian-and-iranian-trolls-released-pcctmwm5m?shareToken=3c2989400a6773f2c77077f0a080de9f

ShinyElena · 18/10/2018 07:01

ClashCityRocker

  1. Our government needs to agree what they want.
This would be my first step.
ClashCityRocker · 18/10/2018 07:03

shinyelena yes, very true.

Well. That's us fucked then isn't it?

borntobequiet · 18/10/2018 07:45

Thanks again Math for the Irish politics.

bellinisurge · 18/10/2018 07:46

Thing is, while we can blameRussian trolls for a lot, many seniors simply don't access social media. I mean real seniors. Although their kids and grandkids do.

mathanxiety · 18/10/2018 07:51

True dat, Bellinisurge.

ClashCityRocker · 18/10/2018 07:54

I don't know about that, bellini.

How old are we talking about? Most 75 year olds I know are au fait with the Internet and actually are more reliant on Facebook than a lot of the younger generation (who have moved to a broader scope of social media platforms).

Taking the ones on my friends list as an example (who do fit into the typical leave demograph, tbh) I think many may tend to take things said on social media at face value.

They're the first to share bullshit posts about reversing your pin number and it notifying the police and all the various Facebook hoaxes... They are also concerned that Sharia Law will be imposed on Britain Any Day Now.

And these aren't seemingly unintelligent people on the surface...

I'm not really sure why it is. Are the young generation just more cynical and willing to engage in critical thinking?

Motheroffourdragons · 18/10/2018 07:55

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

mathanxiety · 18/10/2018 07:56

I don't think FB or Twitter or any other social media have ever said things to older voters that they themselves haven't believed since 1958.

MyCatIsBonkers · 18/10/2018 07:57

Has there been any news on Gibraltar?

WoodenCupCake · 18/10/2018 08:01

"Thing is, while we can blame Russian trolls for a lot, many seniors simply don't access social media. I mean real seniors."

The Daily Mail & Sun take care of these people.

Whilst I do believe that Russian trolls are shit stirring online, let's be honest, outside of the liberal urban classes people in England are very xenophobic and inward looking and have mainly contempt for people who are not born and bred in their little town or village.

This combined with an attitude of British superiority makes perfect fertile ground for Brexit.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2018 08:09

Has there been any news on Gibraltar?

Channels a Tory MP:

"Where's Gibraltar? Oh we'll just do what Maggie did with the Falklands"

I think that's probably not too far off the mark as a summary.

The plan is probably to give it to Spain to pay off our debts or exit fee. We just haven't worked this out yet.

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RedToothBrush · 18/10/2018 08:13

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
Meanwhile one former minister describes idea of extending transition as ‘idiocy’

BBC radio 4 today @bbcr4today
Theresa May "is losing the confidence of colleagues of all shades of opinion" who are "close to despair" at the state of Brexit negotiations says Tory MP @NickBoles. "There is a a fear that both the government and the EU are trying to run out the clock"

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Understand No 10 is open to idea of extending implementation for a few months - PM due to arrive at summit in a wee while, let’s see what she says

Oh so it's gone down a couple of months over night has it?

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RedToothBrush · 18/10/2018 08:14

David Allen Green @ davidallengreen
Pro-Brexit politicians who say UK voters must be held to their decision in the 2016 referendum say..

..that they themselves should not be held to their decisions to accept the backstop in December 2017 and March 2018 because they were "misled".

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RedToothBrush · 18/10/2018 08:17

Relates to this

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Good detail from @SamCoatesTimes on Gove’s remarks in cabinet that he was effectively duped over the backstop in Dec. Echoes what @BorisJohnson told me when he said he’d been ‘mislead’.

They are utterly thick, out of their depth and not fit for office if they can't manage this.

That simple.

Westministenders: Deadline Day #1
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MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 18/10/2018 08:17

let's be honest, outside of the liberal urban classes people in England are very xenophobic and inward looking and have mainly contempt for people who are not born and bred in their little town or village.

And that makes living in a little town as a liberal foreign person quite hard work tbh....

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 18/10/2018 08:19

They didn’t know that the agreement in December was binding??? Really???
Who do they think they are going to fool there? 😡😡😡

Peregrina · 18/10/2018 08:20

Binding, unlike their misleading information in an advisory Referendum. Why doesn't someone challenge them?