Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

I do believe that we have got to the point, where May has effectively now shown her hand and its difficult to argue to the contrary. The dynamic of the Cabinet Office / Dexeu Department has long suggested it, but today I think we have gone beyond any sense of doubt or smoke and mirrors.

May personally WANTS a deal. She knows that, the deal MUST include staying in the customs union and a lengthy transition period.

From her cagey answers it also looks like she doesn't want that transition period restricted.

But she understands that the people she needs to face down are the ERG and the DUP to achieve any deal. She wants to look tough and as if she has pushed things as hard as possible, but there is only so far she can go.

I very much get a sense of a realisation that she pushed it as hard as she could a few weeks, possibly pushing it too far with the EU. So she can't personally do that again herself.

But she is also very aware that No Deal is very very possible if she can't pull it off.

However, I'm not sure she is taking that risk seriously enough. She's risking a lot by not going further in no deal prep. The chances of her not being able to pull it off are high.

May having shown her hand, in itself puts her at risk. So lets see what the rest of the week brings.

I also beleive she DOES want to take us out the EU. But doing that has to be done over a lengthy period. Which inevitably means that its always going to be vulnerable to a reversal because its politically beyond anyone control to set it absoluetely in stone.

The only way that can be done is through a sudden quick exit which will kill the country's economy.

@RedToothBrush it'll not only kill the economy but cause chaos. Just look at the government's own impact papers. It'd be catastrophic and shouldn't even be on the table.

Look at Norway (in the SM but not the CU) and Turkey (in the CU but not the SM).

Neither has frictionless trade

True. Interestingly though, despite delays at the border etc, Turkey continues to produce around 1.1m vehicles a year, largely for the EU market, and it's as involved in the pan-european movement of components etc. as the UK is.

So although it's by no means frictionless trade it seems that not being part of the SM hasn't done Turkish vehicle manufacturing any harm.

I also beleive she DOES want to take us out the EU.
Why though, given that she didn't fully believe in Brexit?
Is it more a case of this is a homework task set, so she has to complete it? Like getting the immigration down to 100, 000 because Cameron set her the task and plucked that figure out of the air.
Or is it because 'Brexit means Brexit and I intend to make a success of it.'

A twitter comment from Steve Richards:
May is twisting and turning in increasingly contorted attempts to keep her government together. Brexit hardliners forced the weak Cameron to hold the referendum when few wanted one. Now May similarly weak. A braver PM wd state there’s only one solution to Irish Question : Remain

The few wanted one statement made me reflect, we have had two pro-EU demonstrations in the last year, with at least 50,000 people attending and another this weekend. We had huge numbers demonstrating against Blair and Iraq, we had the fuel protests a few years back, we had the Poll tax riots and demos. Can anyone remember an anti-EU demonstration prior to the Referendum? I know there have been one or two small pro-Brexit demos after. Farage was going to organise a huge demo and got about 10 men and a couple of dogs as far as I recall.

As for the Leavers "that's democracy, blah blah....." - a PM could always say, Remain for now, and get the Leavers to produce a cohesive plan to be put to the electorate again in 5 or ten years time.

Mrsr8, it depends on who else is playing silly buggers.

If Raab was sent to Brussels as a smoke screen drama, then was he duped into it, OR was he in on it?

There are reasons that it would be politically advantageous for him to agree to it, even if he wants no deal.

Is it more a case of this is a homework task set, so she has to complete it? Like getting the immigration down to 100, 000 because Cameron set her the task and plucked that figure out of the air.
Or is it because 'Brexit means Brexit and I intend to make a success of it.'

Her sense of duty, fits in with both tbh.

Fishes Our motor industry is geared up to JIT components though
Turkey can allow a lot more inefficiencies because the hourly rate of their workers is much cheaper and they have much cheaper warehousing

Going to the Turkish wait times of 15-30 hours would mean extra stock / warehousing costs, more stoppages
all these added costs would be passed on to the customers, who will choose a cheaper altenative if still available

The UK industry, to be profitable, depends on being part of a highly sophisticated economy with (relatively !) modern infrastructure, whereas Turkey is basically still a developing country which relies on very low costs

red It would be nice to think it is all staged, to force a soft Brexit, as some Brexiters think.
I'm not sure that May, even with the help of some Tory big beast behind the scenes and civil service mandarins, is capable of such planning.

Mind you, the wheels seem to be coming off, so it could be a cunning plan going wrong !

As for the Leavers "that's democracy, blah blah....." - a PM could always say, Remain for now, and get the Leavers to produce a cohesive plan to be put to the electorate again in 5 or ten years time.

I would be delighted to see this happen but surely the EU27 would hardly welcome us back with the threat of going through this again in just a few years?

From this article about Turkey suggests it would fit right into the ERG's agenda

https://www.controlrisks.com/our-thinking/insights/automotive-automobile-production-in-turkey-reaches-record-highs

However, labour regulations, in particular safety standards, are low in Turkey and safety regulations are not always respected or evenly enforced. Workplace incidents are not uncommon; a Turkish NGO reported 2,006 workplace deaths across sectors in 2017, presenting potentially significant reputational risks for companies doing business in Turkey.

Agree with BigChocFrenzy that those (parts of) cars that are made in Turkey are not integral to the JIT process and would increase costs through delays in the supply chain. They're also a small proportion of the total cars made within Europe.

Mind you, the wheels seem to be coming off, so it could be a cunning plan going wrong !

Thats where my thought process is going. May was trying to out wit the ERG and DUP. The problem is, that in showing her hand she loses the upper hand and control of things and hands it back to them. She's in a weaker position as a result. I don't necessarily think she intended to show her hand, but she has been forced to perhaps unwittingly. She's duped everyone so many times there's only so many times the same tactic works. Plus I suspect she underestimates how far some of the ERG and DUP are prepared to go on this. Some WANT to do the very thing she's trying to avoid. They don't feel the political fallout if they are not in government and are rich enough.

Some weeks ago, one E27 leader said:

"losing the Uk would be a sadness; having them Remain would be a catastrophe"

To put it more bluntly, May has lost control of the situation and that's the ultimate problem.

I think the EU27 could safely assume that there would never be a cohesive plan put forward - having seen the calibre of the leavers thus far. An offer that would never transpire because it involves actual work.

We could also suggest they make cohesive plans to move Britain to the moon ... they would be just as likely to materialise.

surely the EU27 would hardly welcome us back with the threat of going through this again in just a few years?

In reality, this would be a way of shelving the issue until a new generation had grown up - one which wasn't hankering after the days of Empire. Properly planned ( a big thing to ask, and properly executed) - well this has happened with other countries being asked their opinions in Referenda. I think it's the arsing around which is annoying the rest of the EU. 28 months on and the Tories still can't agree with what they want. What was wanted/desired should have been on the table from day 1.

(FT paywall) EU gives UK 24 hour breathing space on Brexit

https://www.ft.com/content/2e407a74-d06a-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

Brussels is giving Britain a day to settle its position on Brexit
before deciding how to respond to Prime Minister Theresa May’s dramatic move to “disengage” from talks on an EU exit agreement.
...
“We decided to let a day pass to see what happens in London,” added a senior EU diplomat.
...
Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, told EU27 diplomats that Brussels would now wait to see if Mrs May could muster the support of her top ministers and her allies in Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party for an exit deal.

Mrs May is due to convene a cabinet meeting on Tuesday.

Some Eurosceptic Conservative cabinet ministers have threatened to resign unless Brussels agrees to put a firm end date on the “temporary” customs union between the EU and UK which forms part of the backstop.

Sammy Wilson, Brexit spokesman for the DUP, said that a no-deal exit was “probably inevitable” because of “intransigence” from EU negotiators in Brussels.

The DUP, which props up Mrs May’s government, has threatened to bring down the British prime minister
unless she drops a proposal to keep the region in the EU’s single market for goods during the backstop period,
putting a regulatory border in the Irish Sea.

Answering members of parliament’s questions on Monday,
Mrs May declined to promise that there would be a specific end-date in the backstop or to rule out that Northern Ireland would remain in the single market when the rest of the UK left.
...
Responding to the deadlock, Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, suggested that a deal on the backstop might not be agreed for weeks.

“The initial target if you like was October,” Mr Varadkar told reporters in Dublin on Monday. “That’s now slipped to November.”

Simon Coveney, Ireland’s deputy prime minister, also voiced the “ frustration” of many countries over what he described as Britain’s decision to in effect “disengage” from the talks before the EU’s 27 remaining member states begin their summit on Wednesday.

Mrs May has been invited to Brussels on Wednesday to address EU leaders before their Brexit dinner.
But no further talks are scheduled ahead of the summit, raising the prospect of a complete breakdown in the Brexit process.

London had previously been warned that failure to make “decisive” progress on a withdrawal agreement before Wednesday would have serious implications.

Partly at the behest of France, Donald Tusk, the European Council president,
described this week as a “moment of truth” when it would become clear whether a special summit in November was needed to finalise a Brexit deal.

One option under discussion is for member states to call a summit in November devoted to discussing preparations for a no-deal UK exit in the hope it would give negotiators time to make amends.

The European Commission may also step up preparations for a hard exit in March, including by the publication of a detailed contingency planning document. < they've already produced quite a lot of detail >

Looks like it's over.

twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1051874839869485056?s=19

Seems to me unlikely the EU will agree to May's formulation + Dublin insists London has agreed twice in writing to the need for a backstop that doesn't come with all this conditionality. That said, I'm told both teams of negotiators really did work hard to square the circle

red May never had control of the situation, at least not since her Lancaster House speech

peregrina Inside the EU, the UK could be a total wrecker, much worse than before

The EU won't risk a rogue state, the #2 or 3 largest EU economy, deliberately trying to bring down the EU, to create from the ashes the simple trading bloc they want

imo, EEA / EFTA is the best we can hope for ... and EFTA is probably damn wary and planning binding clauses to stop the UK wreking the shop

I meant more control of the fudging more than anything. She's run out of fudges.

Irish Times yesterday was just shaking its head in disbelief:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/chris-johns-the-closer-brexit-comes-the-more-you-wonder-why-1.3663086

In a sign of the UK government finally making a start with getting to grips with the details of Brexit, dozens of “technical notices” have been published.
These warn businesses and consumers of what to expect from “no-deal”.

In just one of these papers, British companies with a substantial presence in the EU have been advised to think about moving their headquarters out of the UK.

Think about that: a government advising indigenous business to leave the country.

MP who is a member of the ERG (didn't catch his name) has just told Jon Snow on Ch4 News that it is the EU's fault that the Conservative Party is so divided

@prettybird it's all framing now for the impending chaos, "it was the EUs fault!"