Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

[RedToothBrush]

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

Now chant again "they need us more than we need them"
Another chant would be, "that's just your opinion."
Er no, a treaty is a fact. Now states can amend treaties or write new ones to replace them, or I suppose withdraw them, but as far as I know, it takes the agreement of all parties.
For a country which 'is open for business' ripping up treaties unilaterally is not a good thing.

Even if the UK withdraws from the Vienna Convention, the other countries won't

So the UK will not be permitted to participate in EU deals with non-EU countries unless there is a WA.
or a later agreement with the EU after Brexit - when the UK is desperate

Even then, the non-EU country, or trade bloc, would have to agree
and it is likely that many will want to renegotiate while the UK is in such a weak position, compared to the EU superpower with whom the original trade agreement was signed.

Er no, a treaty is a fact.

Not in Brexiteer land.

Brexiteers are really starting to resemble those loony tunes good ol' boy preachers that insist on demonstrating the power of Jeeeeesuuuus by letting themselves get bit by rattlesnakes. Every few months one will get a starring role in Fortean Times "Strange Deaths" column.

it is likely that many will want to renegotiate while the UK is in such a weak position

Likely ?

What would the UK do in a similar position ? Or (more to the point) what countries opposition representatives (that's in those countries that have oppositions. The UK seems to know quite a few countries where there's no opposition) would go easy on the incumbent government if they did not do everything in their power to extract as much from the UK as possible ? Not something Brexiteers would know about, if it's not discussed in English, of course. Hows folks Hindi ?

In fact, how many countries around the world are already sharpening their knives ...

And on that note (we seem to have lost the musical undertow to these discussions) it's hard to imagine a song, a lyric, or a group more appropriate than UB40 (or the "yuubs" as they're never known in Brum ) and "Food For Thought" ...

Politician's argue sharpening their knives.
Drawing up their bargains, trading baby lives.

Reading about the truck driver in NI with the load of frozen chicken - I drive along the A55 quite regularly. Late at night when you think it might be quiet, it's heaving with Irish lorries going to Holyhead for the night boat. In the morning, it's heaving in the other direction, and then towards Chester they begin to peal off in different directions.

Even putting a border in the Irish Sea i.e. at Holyhead, is going to cause delays. Anglesey isn't that densely populated so I imagine that they would find space for a customs shed, much more easily than at Dover, but I suspect they still wouldn't be able to do it to the tight timescales.

But hey, I am a Remainer, and must 'get behind Brexit'. These are just details.....

.

Is Rabb making a plea for help, or for political asylum from the madhouse ?

Still, at least his work ethic is far superior to that of DD,
who iirc attended only e hrs if talks in his last 6 months of office - DD mutinied long before he for ally resigned

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/brexit-dominic-raab-rushes-to-brussels-before-eu-crunch-talks

The UK Brexit secretary, Dominic Raabb*, is holding crunch talks with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, after making an unexpected dash to Brussels
days ahead of a “moment of truth” leaders’ summit.

Raab arrived in the Belgian capital on Sunday for a 4pm meeting, with the talks expected to last late into the night,
sources close to the Brexit secretary said.

BigChocFrenzy

Maybe that's why Raab is so often sweaty: he's been building up his strength

Raab arrived in the Belgian capital on Sunday for a 4pm meeting, with the talks expected to last late into the night,

Hmm, shades of the Good Friday Agreement, popularly known as such because talks went on into the morning of Good Friday. So, if they get an agreement, my understanding is that the can is kicked down the road for a couple of years, but it's BINO. And a big No, No, for the DUP and Davis and chums.

Still, BINO gives us more time to continue the fight. IMO we have to think of those in E Europe who didn't give up the fight and eventually sufficient pressure brought the whole system down.

Your links were v interesting, pretty

Martin might support Indyref2 & Independence on principle:

"Labour MEP David Martin said he feared the UK’s exit from the EU could turn England into “a very insular, inward looking country”, which could also change his mind on Scotland’s place in the Union."

and &the Tiresome Twosome are siding with Arlene threatening resignation^ over fears that treating NI differently will break up the Uk:

"The Scottish Conservative leader and Scottish Secretary have told the Prime Minister they will step down if new controls are brought in
as they believe these would boost the case for Scottish independence.

Any differentiated deal that puts a hard Border down the Irish Sea they consider a resigning matter," senior Tory source told the Sunday Times."

So May's bestie, Ruth, may stab her in the back too
After all those fireside chats < tuts >

Oops, apologies, Scottish links from DG 
< I would never be sexist and call him pretty  >

You never know, he might be

@alemannoEU
BREAKING: Negotiators in Brussels have reportedly reached a deal on a #brexit Withdrawal Agreement to secure the UK's safe exit from the EU politi.co/2Aa5IbV #Brexit

And Bavaria results start at 6pm?
Green party look to have a good pro immigration campaign. Very encouraging. Hope the results are OK.

@alexebarker
Contrary to reports of a deal, I hear Northern Ireland has not been resolved. Talks will continue but don't expect a deal tonight. It's a setback but it could still be rescued in coming days

@SkyNewsBreak
Reuters: Diplomatic Sources say the EU Ambassadors of the remaining 27 member states have been summoned to a Brexit meeting in Brussels at 5.30pm

@EuropeElects
Germany (Bavarian state election), FGW exit poll:
CSU-EPP: 35.5%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19%
AfD-EFDD: 11%
FW-ALDE: 11.5%
SPD-S&D: 9.5%
FDP-ALDE: 5%
LINKE-LEFT: 3.5%

Germna papers vrey posive about a deal
BUT

although I suspect that the UK & Barnier have agreed the terms of the deal - the problem is that May doesn't know if she
a) will have fight off / win a Tory leadership vote
b) can get it through the HoC

That's why, even the deal is agreed in the October & November summits, the EU will still dsicuss contingency plans for no deal on the November meeting:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/eu-leaders-line-up-no-deal-emergency-brexit-summit-for-november

A senior EU diplomat said:
“Preparations on contingency are really advancing in almost all member states.
We’re in close contact with our neighbours and exchanging all these issues.
The commission has beefed up its team working on contingency.”

“This is a parallel track.
We’re going to do this anyhow whatever the outcome because even if there’s a positive outcome [this week] we’ll still need to continue preparedness and contingency
because we can never exclude the possibility that negotiations will break down at a later stage”, the same source said.

The problem is you will get to a point where so much has been spent on a no deal, it becomes more expensive to not no deal (if that makes sense ?)

If those EuropeElects polls are accurate, that would be good news with AfD beaten into 4th place

So much for Merkel's party (and its associate party) being a spent force

But I don't want to assume until the actual results are confirmed.

Bavaria looks ok, woman

You notice that, even in a regional election like Bavaria, the names of German parties are quoted with the group to which their party belongs in the European Parliament
e.g.
EPP = European People's Party (right of centre)
ALDE = Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
EFDD = Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (populist dodgy)

and the names of the groupings are English !

DG All this prep and what it costs - reportedly so far that equals the annual GDP of Greece -
means the EU won't give any fut=rther concessions than they have already planned
So a deal is entirely up to May

See - to me this is why May should go for a people's vote. She gets a deal - and rather than let it get destroyed by the ERG and the DUP and any other acronyms that are feeling belligerent - she puts it to the people instead.

If the people say 'no let's remain' ... problem solved.
If the people say 'yes - I like that deal' then parliament can't not vote it through. Having banged on about their mandate and delivering the will of the people, they cannot in good conscience then vote down the new will of the people. I mean. Yeah - the headbangers might still not go for it ... but she wouldn't hear a peep from labour if passing the deal through parliament was coming off the back of a referendum.

Surely all those lovely Henry VIII powers she has granted herself allows her to agree a deal herself and then put it to the people before parliament vote on it?

I'm listening to Doomsday For The Deceiver, quite apt for the Brexiteers out there. For the Remainers, the follow up album was No Place For Disgrace. How apt is that for a 1980s American metal band? :o

I doubt if there is time for Ref2 (Ref3 really), since a ref takes several months a least, under our system

Imo, she should present the deal to the HoC, even if she thinks it won't go through

It puts pressure right back on the ERG especially, also Labour,

It would really pile on the misery if Mogg, Johnson & co stride around a post-Brexit disaster and say it was the fault of the Remainers in govt & civil servcie, including the PM

This would at least help push the blame onto them for any crash out
and hinder any plans they might have of coming to power in a populist surge of anger

It also absolves her of much blame, if she worries about her reputation now and her place in history:
she produced the best deal she could get to fulfill the (imposssibly conflicting) wishes of the voters, but the HoC voted it down

She could say she'll go for a People's vote if the HoC vote it down, but that would just be asking the HoC to vote again.

imo, the only People's Vote should be in NI - not a vote in a United Ireland, but on whether they would accept a permanent NI backstop

Far fewer people to organise and a clear question for Yes/No
It could take the wind out of Arlene's sails

(It's also the solution most German schoolkids chose in their exams on Current Affairs / Europe)