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Brexit

Westministenders: The Slow Reveal

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 10/10/2018 23:16

The DUP are playing silly buggers.
The EU are getting nervous and turning down the pressure.
The ERG still want Schroedingers Brexit.
The Budget is coming. So is a government defeat or climb down.
The M26 is closing.

Keep thinking of the glorious freedom your blue passport will give up whilst you search waste tips.

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 23:49

Most UK voters are very low information and don't think at all deeply about politics or the world about them
Most also still vote tribally.

However, an increasing number are attracted to authoritarian politicians and solutions - simple but very misleading solutions presented very slickly, ofen US-funded:
xenophobic triumphalist nationalism, benefit-bashing, paranoia about conspiracs by liberal elites (ignoring wealthier rightwing elites) etc

Re benefits: often not realising that they themselves receive "benefits"

Like that self-employed woman on QT a year or two ago, they will have to actually suffer themselves before they bother to think

  • and she has since become a Momentum activist !

Not all will rethink, even then:
there was a UC article including a single father whose benefits had been cut - and he was still firmly going to vote Tory, because he thought lots of other people were abusing the benefit system 

However, unlike the poll tax that brought down MrsT, most people don't receive UC and of those who do, only about maybe 2 million will be worse off

Unlike those paying poll tax, what leverage do UC claimants have - other than rioting - go on strike ?
If they refuse their UC benefits, they would soon go broke and the govt would be laughing at the money saved

So, UC may move a couple of million votes, including sympathisers
but that's hardly a national uprising, like the poll tax was

BigChocFrenzy · 13/10/2018 23:53

Woman with all the Russian bots over the last few years in German elections,
the polls may still underestimate the AfD, or miss a late surge so they come a (very poor) 2nd.

However, the CSU are averaging 24 points ahead of them, so must win (barring an apocalypse of election hacking)

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2018 00:11

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Downing Street flatly denying German press reports that a deal is effectively done. Source says: “We have NOT agreed a deal...Negotiations on-going...don’t recognise the timetable...not aware of any plans for a Raab/Barnier press conference.”

Douglas Carswell @DouglasCarswell
Translation: Robbins and co have told EU side the concessions EU sought on open ended CU wld be forthcoming. Downing Street not yet squared that circle with Cabinet, MPs or DUP. Awkward

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
This may well be right. Ministers telling me Robbins has been telling Barnier that May would go for customs union since the spring

This.

And its a bad leak that pushes no deal closer.

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2018 01:22

Yes, the German media - which rarely mentions Brexit - are sounding very positive, saying a deal is much nearer than ever before

They think if all goes well, then the "sherpas" for the E27 can examine the draft text on Monday in preparation for their heads of govt at the Council meeting on Wednesday

www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-verhandlungen-einigung-steht-offenbar-kurz-bevor-a-1233117.html

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2018 01:30

However, they - and the EU - may not be fully aware of all the hurdles May faces:

. the Cabinet on Monday - avoiding more than 2-3 resignations
. the ERG - they could push for a vote of confidence in her leadership. She should win, but it shows up a badly divided party in public and may further weaken her
. Getting the WA through the HoC: the ERG, Tory Remainers, DUP, Labour, SNP all have good reason to vote it down

DoctorTwo · 14/10/2018 07:24

So why are the tories still seen as a viable choice by the average voter ?

Main stream media is largely run by their apologists and policy makers. Many people refuse to look beyond the media they know, including the BBC. Neoliberalism is seen as orthodoxy, especially as those economists who oppose it get no airtime from MSM.

TheElementsSong · 14/10/2018 08:01

BBC News is now a hollow mouthpiece for the powers-that-be to propagandise to low-information consumers. I don't just mean Brexit, but many other fundamental issues too.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 14/10/2018 08:37

BBC News is now a hollow mouthpiece for the powers-that-be to propagandise to low-information consumers. I don't just mean Brexit, but many other fundamental issues too.

Elements I’m having nightmares about a time when we all become low informations consumers because our access to other information outlets has been curtailed. Reasonable or am I one step away from fashioning myself a bacofoil beret?

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 14/10/2018 08:50

With apologies for missing punctuation in the last line above...

Going back to the DUP story (posted last night but then had to immediately take to my bed in despair.) How has this situation even been allowed to develop? How was May allowed to enter into this Faustian pact? Wasn’t the impartiality of the British government a requirement of the GFA? Doesn’t that make a £1b bung in return for propping up the government illegal?

Sorry...a largely rhetorical rant, I know, and old ground...

Peregrina · 14/10/2018 09:11

Ministers telling me Robbins has been telling Barnier that May would go for customs union since the spring.

I think if I were May, I would say to the ERG - bring it on. I still don't think they have enough votes to topple her, so she would win again. She would then be unable to be challenged for another year, so she could get her CU agreement through with Barnier. She would still have to get it through Parliament, but for her, one step at a time might be better.

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2018 09:20

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
At their conference in Bristol today, the Co-op Party, which has 38 MPs on the Labour benches. backed UK membership of the single market, customs union and also a People’s Vote. So they won’t be backing Chequers.

Is this a split between Labour and the Cooperative Party, who technically speaking are the third biggest political party in the country if I am to believe a recent episode of QI.

(I hate QI with a passion. DH was watching it).

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Mrsr8 · 14/10/2018 09:22

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 14/10/2018 09:25

I feel thicker than most posters on here but I don't get why go for CU and still have to deal with impact of some tariffs and non-tariff barriers like rules of origin checks.

Presumably the CU is ok in her book but single market is not because of the four pillars? So her immigration targets still predominate. More important than the economy remains the goal of reducing Poles etc? (With the inevitable result of replacing them with African, Middle Eastern and Asian workers ?

Peregrina · 14/10/2018 09:31

I don't think you are any thicker than the rest of us, lonelyplanet. If you think that the behaviour of Government is stupid, it's not because you are thick and don't understand, it is because they are being totally stupid.

I wish I could fast forward 100 years to see what the history books write about this period. I have been doing a lot of reading about WW1 and WW2 and blundering about seems to be one of the main causes.

borntobequiet · 14/10/2018 09:33

Hi Lonely - I think it’s because she’s in favour of frictionless trade but against free movement. And she thinks everyone thinks like she does, unless it’s clear they don’t. But my analysis of anything is always too simplistic.

borntobequiet · 14/10/2018 09:34

And I’m seriously thinking of joining the Co-op Party.

prettybird · 14/10/2018 09:57

But being in "a" customs Union doesn't equate to frictionless trade Confused Especially not the frictionless trade required for JIT processes Confused

NTBs are just as important as tariffs Confused

borntobequiet · 14/10/2018 10:02

No, I know...but it seems to be TM’s belief.

DGRossetti · 14/10/2018 10:06

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45853384

Brexit: David Davis calls for cabinet rebellion over PM's plan

Cabinet ministers should "exert their collective authority" and rebel against Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal, ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis has said.

The PM has suggested a temporary customs arrangement for the whole UK to remain in the customs union while the Irish border issue is resolved.

Brexiteers suspect this could turn into a permanent situation, restricting the freedom to strike trade deals.

Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Davis said the plan was unacceptable.

"This is one of the most fundamental decisions that government has taken in modern times," he added.

The article comes ahead of a crucial summit with EU leaders in Brussels on Wednesday which will determine whether or not a deal can be struck.

Mr Davis resigned from his post in July - days after Mrs May's so-called Chequers deal was agreed by cabinet - saying he did not believe in the plan.

He was soon followed out of government by the then-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who claimed the PM was leading the UK into a "semi-Brexit" with the "status of a colony".

The pair have been vocal opponents of Mrs May's direction since returning to the backbenches.

The issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which will become the UK's border with the EU, is one of the last remaining obstacles to achieving a divorce deal with Brussels.

Wrangling is continuing over the nature of a "backstop" to keep the border open if a wider UK-EU trade arrangement cannot resolve it.

The EU's version, which would see just Northern Ireland remain aligned with Brussels' rules, has been called unacceptable by Mrs May and the DUP.

Mr Davis said the government's negotiating strategy had "fundamental flaws", arising from its "unwise decision" to let the EU dictate the principle of the backstop in December, when the two sides agreed a wider settlement on citizens rights and the so-called divorce bill.

Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said it had been a mistake for the prime minister to allow herself to get "boxed in" over the issue of Northern Ireland.

Asked on Sky News' Sophy Ridge show whether he backed calls for a Cabinet rebellion, Mr Duncan Smith said, "when you no longer agree on a fundamental issue, then it's probably time that you found yourself on the back benches".

That David Davis is no fan of Theresa May's Brexit plan is not surprising.

That he's choosing to ratchet up the pressure with a public call to rebellion aimed at her most senior ministers is perhaps more so.

The former Brexit secretary's own resignation from the cabinet in July did not alter the prime minister's course.

But time to reach a deal with the EU is now considerably shorter, and there have been reports that other senior Conservatives have concerns about the back-up plan for the Irish border too.

The key question is perhaps not so much whom his article might persuade, but whether or not it reflects what some in the cabinet may already be thinking.

Negotiations have continued this weekend between the UK and the EU ahead of Wednesday's meeting.

On Saturday evening, German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung reported a deal had already been reached between Mrs May and the EU, and would be announced on Monday.

But a No 10 source told the BBC the report was "100%, categorically untrue" and negotiations were ongoing.

The paper said it had seen a leaked memo from EU negotiators to EU ambassadors stating: "Deal made."

Elsewhere, DUP leader Arlene Foster warned the prime minister on Saturday not to accept a "dodgy" deal with the EU.

Mrs Foster said Mrs May should not back a plan that would "effectively cut Northern Ireland adrift".

According to a leaked email reported in the Observer, Mrs Foster is preparing for a no-deal Brexit.

More than three-quarters of NHS trusts, meanwhile, have made no preparations for the UK's departure from the EU whatsoever - according to documents obtained by the People's Vote campaign under Freedom of Information requests.

The group also commissioned a YouGov poll of the UK's doctors and nurses, who - according to the poll - now back another referendum by a margin of three to one.

RedToothBrush · 14/10/2018 10:13

George Trefgarne @ georgetrefgarne
1. In his Telegraph column the brilliant @DanielJHannan gives cautious support to EEA+EFTA. However, he has a reservation which I don’t share “it may be too late”.

2. This “too late” critique is commonly expressed. But given the prolonged transition now evident under any other plan, surely we have plenty of time?

3. Anyway, negotiations to join EFTA (required to make our legal rights in EEA operative) could be incredibly quick and might on,y take weeks. They aren’t complicated. It is UK incompetence which is the real impediment.

4. More generally, it is never too late in life to change tack from error to rectitude, from failure to success.

5. I have always thought the u-turn is the most underestimated of political manoeuvres. We all change tack in life when we have to do so.

Just...

... I think I'm going to refrain from comment under the 'if you haven't got anything nice to say about someone' clause.

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2018 12:02

Red Sorry, but I don't have your self-control:

The adjective "brilliant" applied to Hannan ? 

BigChocFrenzy · 14/10/2018 12:08

FRANCE was asked by Jersey and Guernsey if the nation would be able to act for them in Brexit negotiations,
French media has report

Unfortunately, it's not legally possible, but it illustrates the lack of faith in the UK govt that the various British territories around the world must be feeling

jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/10/11/brexit-islands-asked-if-france-would-be-able-to-act-for-them/

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 14/10/2018 12:38

Someone help me, please.

Catching up on this morning’s Andrew Marr show. Simon Wolfon, CEO of Next explainins No Deal, whilst undesirable would not be disastrous, saying we import lots of stuff from non EU countries and those imports spend less than an hour in customs. Andrew Marr does not point out that following No Deal we will no longer have the trade deal with those Non EU countries.
Confused

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 14/10/2018 12:41

And anyway, don’t our EU imports currently spend only 17minutes in customs and didn’t we establish an extra two minutes would result in chaos? Even more Confused