Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

In Germany, tenants might stay 40 years in the same private rental
Properties are easily sold with sitting tenants - they're an asset in fact
An LL can get the property back to live in, but the notice period after a few years is several months, not just 3.

Also, there is great freedom to decorate etc, provided the property is returned to its original condition if the LL wants.
Not just painting & light fittings, but also fitted flooring, new built-in kitchens - which the tenant can take with them or sell ....

So, although the better off like to buy, there is not the same pressure to do so.
I"m renting and I will continue to do so, even if I can stay here in retirement
It's just easier and I can move wherever takes my fancy

DG Quite a difference in London and other cities with good public transport links & frequency
but in smaller towns and rurally, public transport is maybe hourly and inadequate for most folk

Also, as soon as someone has a job requiring multiple train connections, DC, elderly parents and of course disabled family members .... they frantically book those lessons

On MN, driving is still described as an "essential life skill" and non-drivers are judged.

Like most of his friends. It's walk/bus/Uber. But drive ? Even if he could, why own, insure, and try to park a car ?

BigChoc has just made the point I was coming on to make. This is a city/countryside split. I grew up on the edge of small market towns. All my friends learnt to drive as soon as they were 17. Don't drive, no social life, unless Mum and Dad are willing to be a taxi service. Whereas when I went to University, London friends didn't drive, could understand that not all places had the Underground, but couldn't understand why you just didn't hail a cab! Cab/taxi cruising around in a rural area? You have to be joking.

Living still on the edge of a market town, albeit one in the S East with a decent enough bus service, my children learnt to drive as soon as they were 17. As did my nieces in rural N Wales. DB bust a gut to get his bus pass when he was old enough, and then had difficulty using it, because the few buses there were didn't go where he needed to go.

Transport poverty is a real issue in rural areas, and austerity has been leading to cuts in rural bus services.

This is a city/countryside split.

Which is not getting any better ...

On MN, driving is still described as an "essential life skill" and non-drivers are judged.

DW still gets tearful at not being able to drive (eyesight fucked, courtesy of MS).

Where would NI go? @Mrsr8 .
You obviously know that joining the Republic is a bit ....problematic.

The Strawbs 'can't get me out I'm part of the union'.
Sorry, sporadic music flashback!

@1tisILeClerc - I may sing that to my Irish passport.

With a nod to Jung here's something which floated through my feed a few minutes ago ...

www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/26/were-doomed-mayer-hillman-on-the-climate-reality-no-one-else-will-dare-mention

very interesting article about the tyranny of the car - and it's deleterious effect on society as a whole.

JLR shutting for two weeks ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45785229

Which car manufacturer do you think will pull out first? Is this really a question of who is making the models due for replacement soonest?

Which car manufacturer do you think will pull out first?

I doubt we'd know. After the pasting Unilever took, it's probably better to salami the process up, so no on realises. Again, it's what I'd do. Given that there isn't a single person in the UK who hasn't been exposed in some way or another to "restructuring", "refocussing", "reshaping", or any of the other synonyms for "fired", then it's fairly easy to disguise it until the last moment. (Pastor Neimuller springs to mind).

Remember Kraft ? Loads of promises about keeping this factory open, until they had their sticky little fingers on Cadburys, at which point it was "sorry, we got our figures wrong. Fuckity bye,"

I think with the frantic 'jigging' going on at the moment the direction the country will go could well be signposted by 20th Oct or around then.
Have the various manufacturers 'block booked' ferries for the last 2 weeks of March so they can take the robots and machinery to the EU?
All the EU owned UK business heads were invited to the Elysee for a glass of wine and nibbles last week. By the time they have been wined and dined by the other 25 they will be getting quite rotund!

Can you get 'articulated lorry' size cloaks of invisibility?

Have the various manufacturers 'block booked' ferries for the last 2 weeks of March so they can take the robots and machinery to the EU?

I doubt they'd want/need them. Insurers would probably have to pay up, or mitigate the loss. They in turn will then join the "sue the UK" queue which is quietly growing.

I wonder what effect a flood of commercial/industrial land would have on the UKs market. Especially with the need for housing diminished ? I guess HMG would be required to step in, and buy/hold the land to keep the prices of other properties high.

You could house a lot of homeless in the various car plant buildings.

You could house a lot of homeless in the various car plant buildings.

I'm sure you could. Bet it would never happen though.

Call me a cynic, but we need homeless people, to ensure houses keep selling. Back to Gore Vidal, again ....

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/conservatives-have-become-party-of-far-right-ideology-and-intolerance/08/10/

The Conservatives have become a party of “far-right ideology and intolerance”, according to MEP Richard Ashworth.
At least some people are starting to call a dog a dog.

Have the various manufacturers 'block booked' ferries for the last 2 weeks of March so they can take the robots and machinery to the EU?

I have participated to the move of a (automotive) factory from the U.K. to Poland. That took about 2 years just to move the production (aka knowledge). Machines stayed where they were!
The important part is knowledge and training of the people on the shop floor.
As well as finding suppliers able to produce parts at the right standard.

What I wouldn’t be surprised is if the first steps have already been taken (eg by finding EU suppliers rather than U.K. ones).

Said this before but if I could wait until after Brexit to make large scale redundancies I would. The law might be relaxed and the pound will be weaker. Makes it cheaper.

news.sky.com/story/eus-jean-claude-juncker-denies-mocking-theresa-may-with-own-dance-11521474

EU's Jean-Claude Juncker denies mocking Theresa May with own dance
Yep TM is seen a really serious politician by the EU, no doubt there....

RTB thé other thing is that you can blame ‘the economy’ whilst avoiding any backlash rather than saying it’s all about Brexit.

{What I wouldn’t be surprised is if the first steps have already been taken (eg by finding EU suppliers rather than U.K. ones).}
The German version of the CBI told German manufacturers to do this about a year ago.
With plants having declared shutdowns immediately following Brexit, how many will actually reopen?

I think JLR will reopen this time. However, I don't think they will be able to afford to keep having shut downs and keep paying workers. So next step will be to cut back production and redundancies.