Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

Sorry to hark back to a post from last night but just catching up.

For spending in the UK, whether the pound is low or high, it doesn't matter except in so far as prices rise and ther'es not much to be done then

My worry is a hyperinflation situation. I’d be interested to know how likely people think this may be. If such a scenario developed, having converted some savings to euros would, I assume, be beneficial. Presumably converting euros back would give you many times the sterling it had cost you to buy, therefore mitigating some of the effects of hyperinflation on your buying power?

Please, someone tell me there’s no chance of this happening. Have never been able to shake those images of the Weimar Republic - wheel barrels of cash and children playing with stacks of banknotes...

I agree, LeClerc in normal times any one of those incidents would be all over the media.
I saw an Irish times editorial last week which included the line. "England is not a normal country now" very worrying.

I have always been against a 2nd ref, because referenda on important decisions,

• unless in a society that is use to them and organises them properly -

can be manipulated by a small expert clique and are difficult to reverse if this is discovered, or if the situation changes.

Referenda are a classic tool for demagogues
and are banned in Germany, where this was learned the hard way.

We are where we are, not where we would like to be

Our MPs are elected to be representatives and they should take the decisions, whether that be a deal, or a 2nd ref or revoking A50 (if allowed)
The public can judge or object to their MP's decision at the next GE

I am not sure a hyperinflation situation would occur as the UK is not actually at war with anyone and although the EU (residents) may be pissed off at wasting money there are not likely to be reprisals from 'official' sources. This is principally a 'political' balls up, and industry, both manufacturing and finances, are trying desperately to get through the mess.
Price rises will be almost inevitable, due to tarriffs and an attempt to reclaim losses due to reorganising everything.
Although putting money elsewhere might seem sensible, there are still plenty of unknowns and the cost of doing it, and some risk may not be worthwhile. A bit like buying lottery tickets, only do it if you can afford to lose.

The 1st referendum in 1975 was also called by a PM - Harold Wilson - blatantly for party unity
He started the dangerous preference

Parliament had already made the decision to join the Common Market and the UK was a member
If he thought that decision was wrong, then he should have tried to rveerse it in Parliament;
if he thought it was correct, he should have faced down the hard left in his party

However, at least he had sufficient political nouse not to take any part in the referendum, because he knew it would then turn into a vote on him and his government

Cameron was too arrogant to learn from this

They are waving their fictitious 'will of the people' at us.

If Brexit goes ahead, the principle that you can ignore 48% of a population will be the established political truth.

Not a great way to run a country.

imo, Try to keep anxiety in check and don't work yourself up worrying about the wilder, most unlikely scenarios
Hyperinflation like Weimar is very very unlikely
There is enough to prep for that is realistic.

I remember the 1970s, when we had inflation of around 25%.
It discouraged saving and hurt the poor most of all, but it didn't lead to any breakdown of society

What I expect from Brexit is the continuing - probably accelerated - decline of Sterling against other major currencies, like the dollar, which has been happening since the 1930s.
This will increase inflation to some extent, but this should be wihin manageable limits and not as bad as the 1970s - because the international economy and monetary policy have changed since then

With transaction costs, plus the different rates at which banks buy and sell, changing to Euros would lose a bit in the immediate short term.
In fact, if there is a Withdrawal Agreement, with suitable waffle about a future deal, the pound might well rise again to over $1.20

When it makes sense to convert to Euros:
. You are thinking of moving to the EU for several years
. or have a large amount of capital that you can put away - without needing it - for the longterm
. or you are an experienced currency hedger

Do take Bellini's advice to prep for the short term disruption of a few days after Brexit.

I would personally prep for 2 weeks, if you can and have plenty of cash for that period too
Obviously, don't plan any travel abroad for that time

Does anybody have examples of the kinds of things to store/prep?

I have loads of baked beans and soup but struggling a bit to think beyond that. We normally eat fresh veg/bread/meat (and have only a very small freezer) so I can’t stock up on what we would normally eat, and the whole concept is so horrifying that I seem to lose ability to think it through rationally .

Is there any sense in getting a water filtering machine (just one example of the many random thoughts my mind has throw out while panicking) ??

WhatwouldScooby
There is a Preppers thread with loads of ideas.
Unless things go downhill severely, water should be no problem, but a few bottles of 'nice' water for drinking might be handy. Loo flushing and even washing could be done with freshly collected rainwater.
Stuff like pasta, tinned tomatoes onions (bought in Feb/March), stuff to make meals from.

Taken from the Guardian:
{Any suggestion the EU has a veto over Britain’s ability to move away from its customs rules in the future would be met with fierce opposition from Tory Brexiters. The mood among some ministers is grim, but most agree a “no deal” outcome would be so disastrous that there is no choice but to compromise in the short term.}
This looks promising BUT, the 'killer' is the last bit, 'compromise in the short term'.
With car plants taking years and many millions to set up, Industry needs a long term plan, a sticking plaster won't do the job.
With the possibility of whichever government possibly changing it's mind about anything to do with industry, as has already been hinted at by Gove? it won't be good enough.

Maybe get a breadmaker? Often available in charity shops.

Bigchoc thank you for your thoughts - I really appreciate the insight from someone who clearly has a better understanding of the economic implications than I do. I need to try to stop myself from catastrophising (which seems to be a word these days!) but will have a proper discussion with DH about whether we should transfer some long term savings into euros. I’m not remote,y interested in trying to make a killing on the money markets, and we certainly don’t have money we can afford to lose so I’m just thinking about how to spread any risk a little. I know the Weimar Republic is an extreme example! I do get a slightly queasy feeling whenever I think about Venezuela (different circumstances again I know) and I think I’m taking the old ‘hope for the best and prepare for the worst’ adage a little too far. It seems there’s no end to the worst case scenarios my imagination can take me to!

One of the reasons I found it so hard to watch Casualty back in the 90s. Found the slow build-up to the inevitable horrible accident far too nerve jangling and was constantly spotting all the signs of the terrible way the story would develop. Come to think of it...

I'd include stuff that is edible in a pinch if there are power cuts and you can't heat it up.

If you freeze some bread and keep 2-3 days worth of butter, cheese, ham, apples etc in the fridge, that would keep for a while even without power.

Then have a longlife stash of:
longlife milk, cereal, crackers, peanut butter, jam, biscuits, chocolate
and tinned meat, fish, fruit, peas, carrots, rice pud

David Owen (Former Labour Foreign Sec) Civil Service unwittingly giving inaccurate advice to May ?

Alarming, but highly plausible:

http://www.lorddavidowen.co.uk/david-owen-highlights-wrong-advice-being-given-to-the-prime-minister-on-the-details-of-the-eea-agreement/

Dear Prime Minister
...
Having read your letter this weekend I now realise your firmly held position has been based on a deeply mistaken belief about the content of the EEA Agreement.
In para 8 of your letter to me there is a very serious and alarming error
...
I cannot understand how you have come to be misled over this long period on this SPS issue.

I am sure it was not deliberate but
it may reflect a deeper problem you face in that you are not being advised by people of long experience of EU matters nor of negotiating with the EU.

Hi all. I say get some extras in for about three days because it freaks people out to say more. Then people can come to their own conclusions about whether they need more. Prepping is all about , ahem, taking back control of a possible tricky situation that you and your might find yourself in. Be it bad weather or whatever. Brexit is obviously giving people pause for thought on that score.
I voted Remain in no small part to avoid this problem. NI was my other main reason.

Thanks all, I will add to the beans and soup as suggested. I can manage to prep for three days, but my imagination /anxiety goes into overdrive and I start thinking I need extra chocolate and whisky for bargaining with people (I have absolutely no idea where this thought keeps coming from!!!!!)

Singing I too have recurring Weimar Republic nightmares. In fact when I wake up in the night that’s one of the biggest worries.

We always tend to have enough in the house for about 10 days. I'm planning to have extra water and make sure I also have charcoal so I can cook things if need be - it's amazing what you can do on a half decent BBQ and doing it in winter isn't new in our household.

I don't consider myself a prepper, but this is an unprecedented situation and I am not taking chances - I have zero faith in this government.

Some great instincts on here. Have a bit extra of what you actually eat. Don't tell anyone you have it. No need to go full on tin foil hat - whatever that means- think about fussy eaters in the house. If they don't eat tuna, don't get it. Have treats to cheer you up if food and drink treats work for you.

3 days does seem optimistic. It's difficult having almost no idea of what will happen. There will be UK sourced food, but will it be reserved for the wealthy? I can't imagine this government managing to organise fair rationing. I think I will aim for 2 months, plus long term goods that are bound to become expensive.

Again @Thomasinaa - I'm a prepper. I have more than three days. A lot more. But many people are overwhelmed and also skint and also short of storage. So a project of 3 days is a good start. More than that is up to individuals.
There are plenty on here who whine about it being unpatriotic. If someone has those voices niggling at them in RL, it can be hard to get started.

I don't have to be patriotic. I'm an EU national and my response to 'it's unpatriotic' is unprintable anywhere except on Mumsnet.

Why is supporting the disaster that Brexit is almost certain to be considered patriotic? I think I am patriotic wanting it stopped because I don't want chaos to befall the country.

I don't really get patriotism...