Westministenders: Talks Walk Out?

[RedToothBrush]

We are now on the countdown to whether we get a backstop Withdrawal Deal. May is hoping to get the EU to backdown on this saying that we will stay in the customs union until a deal is agreed on NI. That would mean come 29th March, we'd have no transistion period, but we'd still have a hard border in NI because we were out of the single market. And if the EU don't agree to it we are into the chances of accidental Brexit being sky high. The only way out would be revoking a50. May has hinted that if Tory MPs don't give her support we could end up with no brexit at all - whether she means revoking a50 or Beano isn't clear.

So onward to 18th October...

Just a cheery note on this gray day-Another £50 million not being invested in the U.K.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/smurfit-kappa-shelves-50m-plant-over-brexit-fears-tcq2885mf?shareToken=be2579bdbf425b48d113eaf3b7136b71

I've just opened a transferwise borderless account. It was indeed very easy once I realised how it worked

I'm going to discuss with DP tonight about how much to transfer.

@mrjamesob
A very cautious suggestion: the country currently trading on terms closest to the ‘deal’ being mooted is... Turkey.

woman
What's happening right now is in fact a really really bad sign that the EU just wants to see the back of the UK now.

Mother apologies for causing premium bond stress! I’m pretty clueless about this sort of thing and am allowing my imagination to run riot. With all the talk about the government wanting to stop us -or our assets - leaving the country, I’m just thinking to myself ‘hang on, I’ve actually given the government a lot of my money to look after...’

Also thinking, could the government become insolvent, and if so, what happens to bonds?

As, I said, I’m clueless and hoping for reassurance from minds that are safer on fiscal matters.

Sager - not safer (but probably that too)
Bloody autocorrect.

Also thinking, could the government become insolvent, and if so, what happens to bonds

I don't think it would ever come to that (disclaimer, am absolutely not an expert) but for me it's more about being able to squirrel a small amount of cash away elsewhere in case the £ completely tanks.

And I'm talking small amounts, not fortunes if I had a fortune I imagine I'd have off-shored it long ago!

We have had a 15% loss of income since Brexit day because we live in France and our sterling pension income is converted into euros. We manage it by modelling a projected rate on a spreadsheet and adjusting monthly expenditure. When the rate has been better we have brought extra across for capital projects. If (when) it gets worse we will try to buy more stuff in the UK and collect it when we can get there. We had a brief period of this in 2008, but this is far worse.

Don't panic:
Premium bonds , ISAs etc should be safer than anything else - the UK won't go down the plughole, even if there is a bad recession

As I posted, the only problem might be transferring UK assets abroad, if you wanted to move abroad for a while
because the govt might impose capital controls if there is capital flight

chickens If there is a Withdrawal Agreement and hence a transition period:

• the EU would treat us just as if we were a member, with the same rights and obligations,
  except that we would no longer have a vote in the European Parliament or in the European Council (EU heads of govts)

• but they could only request the RoW countries to treat us the same.

Some countries might refuse and then we would not be able to export to them on the same terms.
However, we would still be bound by the 759 trade arrangements & deals, so we would have to let their exports in on the same terms as now !

rebelThe EU is still trying as hard as it can to get a deal,
but is also fully preparing for no deal.

We should have an idea by the October Council meeting if this latest round of negotiations is on track.
The aim is to show sufficient progress in October and then final agreement at the November meeting.
Otherwise, negotiations would pretty much end by December, because of timng for EP approval

However, imo the EU no longer wish us to Remain,
because they don't want a member where half the population voted to Leave and some of those who Remain were only tolerating the EU to protect the economy

If the UK population in the future become very enthusiastic, like the RoI, about membership, they would welcome us back with a new application under Article 49 to join.

However atm, many EU officials say the Uk has always had a "transactional" view of the EU, i.e. what we can get out of it financially,
whereas most members also have an emotional wish for the EU

So it is likely they don't want us back until this has changed, to avoid going through this whole malarkey again of being too special, always demanding opt outs and maybe invoking A50 again.

Bigchoc, yes, so with six months to go, shouldn't we have an idea by now which countries are going to agree to rollover and which aren't? I just haven't seen this talked about very much anywhere. I've seen things about the Open Skies agreement re-negotiations with America not going very well, for example, and being halted as the terms America wanted were going to be worse for us, but not anything on this. I don't know whether I've missed it, or it's just not being talked about? If it has the potential to affect our exports, you'd think a responsible government (ha) would want to be preparing busines for likely impacts...

Ah, I should have googled first. So according to this report in Sept:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-roll-over-deals-uk-eu-counties-airline-rights-nuclear-safety-a8527731.html

no countries have yet made a clear agreement to rollover, the EU is only going to ask them to do so when a withdrawal agreement is agreed, and if even they agree, there might not be time for them to pass their own legislation allowing them to do so in time for March.

I believe the rules are that the UK can't make formal deals with anyone else until it has actually left the EU. The 'deals' with African countries are only penciled in and can only be considered done after 29 March.
Of course either side can change their mind.
Mr Wherrity fox has been talking in the USA but whatever he might have agreed (which should only be provisional at this stage) may not be revealed for 4 years (although presumably what the deals are could be signed in secret on 30March).

Yes, a bit more detail here as well:

cer.eu/in-the-press/eu-has-36-free-trade-deals-non-eu-countries-will-they-roll-over-britain-after-brexit

So exporters to non-EU countries could be looking at WTO tariffs from March with or without a transition agreement.

Thanks Fennel and Bigchoc feeling a bit calmer about that particular issue - if nothing else.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/06/theresa-may-labour-voters-look-again-tory-party
Labour voters should look afresh at the Conservatives
by Theresa May
(Observer Opinion Column)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45750389
Human body parts 'pile up' in NHS waste backlog

This is about allowing EU officials at British Ports.
So the proposal is we are going to take back control of our borders from the EU, by having it policed by the EU.

Apparently we have a chronic recruiting problem and we are currently 4000 soliders below having an effective fighting force.

So this is the solution they've come up with.

Some worrying news coming from Saudi and a background story to keep your eyes on.

Reuters are reporting that two sources have told them that a Saudi journalist was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul a couple of days ago, and his body smuggled out.

Turkey don't appear to be too happy about this.

Why is this significant?

Evan Hill @evanchill
Those involved in US and EU foreign policy need to understand that @JKhashoggi's reported assassination, absent serious consequences for Saudi Arabia, puts every Arab dissident around the world in danger.

Kristian Ulrichsen @Dr_Ulrichsen
If one recalls that part of the reason the Saudis got so mad at Canada was because the Canadian Foreign Ministry tweeted in Arabic, one can easily imagine that the Washington Post's decision to publish Jamal Khashoggi's articles in Arabic evoked very similar reactions in Riyadh.

It has implications for international democracy.
Remember Trump's support for Saudi too.

There has already been a crack down on activists and dissidents in Saudi, leading to many leaving.

This piece out today from the Intercept before this news broke is reflective.

theintercept.com/2018/10/06/saudi-arabia-women-driving-activists-exile/
Kingdom Crackdown
Saudi Women Who Fought for the Right to Drive Are Disappearing and Going Into Exile

Given Corbyn's stance on Saudi, it'll be interesting to see it leaking into UK politics too.

Interesting thread on discrepancies in the protocol of the referendum.
Extraordinarily high postal vote turnout. I have no idea if 99% is normal.
twitter.com/DelvingHaylee/status/1048688873826660352