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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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1tisILeClerc · 03/10/2018 09:23

Thanks Missclimpson
Indeed a long read but I felt badly written, in that it was too verbose and meandering. It lacked a decent summary. There was no real conclusion.

1tisILeClerc · 03/10/2018 09:26

@Woman
Damn, can't he put it back a week or two to end of October?

Mrsr8 · 03/10/2018 09:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Mrsr8 · 03/10/2018 09:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

RedToothBrush · 03/10/2018 09:35

What are James Patrick's reasons for that woman?

The Withdrawal Deal talks collapse. There will be no backstop or transition period without it.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 03/10/2018 09:35

Not for you MrsR you have a magic passport.Smile
Sajid Javid's speech wasn't about keeping people out, it was keeping people in. I keep having to practise my 'double think' every time one of them speaks. Confused Plus, his current rules for immigration would have kept his dad out. Confused.
FOM rules are now for keeping in those of us who have a heritage which goes too strongly back to the 'ethnic' english normans/celts/ anglo saxons/Africans/ vikings etc. Hmm

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Quietrebel · 03/10/2018 09:35

About Norse mythology- it's about as mainstream as it comes! See Tolkien's work and the subsequent plethora of heroic fantasy novels and films/tv series. Tolkien drew inspiration from Old English poems and Norse sagas such as the Edda (in which the name Gandalf first appears)

RedToothBrush · 03/10/2018 09:37

And yes. May can not get ANY deal through parliament. So thats the reality of the numbers. Thats not necessarily her choice. Its simply a reality of circumstance and political dynamics.

OP posts:
ShinyElena · 03/10/2018 09:39

This Tory conference is a depressing glimpse into a toxic family by Richard Godwin

What have we, the people of Britain, done to the Conservative party? Why do they hate us so much? As the odours from their annual feasting in Birmingham drift over the airwaves, I find my responses metastasising beyond the merely political and into the realms of the psychological.

I get the sense that they’re punishing us, somehow. That there’s some deep-seated Jungian weirdness being acted out on the British public, every time the zealot Daniel Hannan vows to feed us his chlorinated chicken, every time Jeremy Hunt threatens us with his leadership credentials. It’s as if we (Britain) are the child. And they (the Tories) are the dysfunctional parents, ripping themselves apart, occasionally grabbing us by the wrists to prove some sort of point to the other.

Theresa May comes up for air. She would like it to be known that she hopes to end freedom of movement within the European Union. She will remove – just like that! – our right to work in France or retire in Spain as that, she has decided, is what we want. She seems weirdly proud about it, too, a little bit “Look what you made me do.” But no member of the British public asked for this. No one made her do it other than the peculiar tribe to which she has pledged allegiance.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/02/tory-conference-government-brexit

Peregrina · 03/10/2018 09:51

every time the zealot Daniel Hannan vows to feed us his chlorinated chicken,

Ugh - just like John Gummer fed his daughter a beefburger at the time of the BSE crisis.

DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 10:36

.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 10:36

.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 10:38

Remember I said a few days for every "positive" there can now be found 10 negatives ?

If Brexit broke your heart, it ain't getting fixed.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45727317

Clinical trials of a new heart drug have been stopped in the UK because of concerns over Brexit.

Medical research firm Recardio was due to try the drug dutogliptin on patients in Clydebank, Leeds and Exeter.

It has suspended all UK activities due to uncertainty about how new medicines will be approved after Brexit.

(contd)

DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 10:40

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/paris-motor-show-no-deal-brexit-and-we-ll-have-to-leave-warns-bmw-9jf7sr5sr

Two of the biggest carmakers in Britain have outlined plans to move production and shut down factories after Brexit as the potential for a no-deal outcome hung over the Paris motor show.

BMW said that it would move production of the Mini, including potentially the new electric Mini, to the Netherlands in the event of a hard Brexit. It has also decided to shut down its RollsRoyce plant in Goodwood for two weeks after Brexit D-Day at the end of March next year. It is considering closing its Swindon Mini body-parts plant and its Hams Hall engine factory in the Midlands for the month of April.

(contd)

DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 10:43

Pretty certain we can keep batting these out for every "we've sold a pin" story from the Brexiteers.

Somehow, I can't see people moving into "let's just suck it up mode". No matter how many illusory policies get announced.

news.sky.com/story/tension-in-the-uk-car-market-as-bmw-prepares-for-a-hard-complicated-brexit-11514900

German car giant BMW has told Sky News it is making contingency plans for "all scenarios" when Britain leaves the European Union - including "a hard complicated Brexit".

The company sells around 250,000 cars a year in the UK, which is BMW's fourth-biggest market after China, the United States and Germany.

But BMW has been critical of preparations for Brexit, and those criticisms are now intensifying.

Speaking to me at the Paris Motor Show, where BMW is unveiling it crucial new 3-series model, the firm's chief financial officer Nicolas Peter seemed exasperated when we spoke about Brexit.

He said: "Are we disappointed with the progress [of Brexit negotiations] so far? Yes we are, so we have to prepare for all different scenarios, including a hard, complicated Brexit where supply chains will be impacted for a couple of weeks.

"We have many, many parts that have to move every day from the UK to Europe, and the other way. When Brexit happens, we will need to examine the impact, and analyse the rules and regulations for a company like ours."

^BMW says the UK car market remains of 'strategic importance
Mini, which is owned by BMW, recently confirmed that the date of its annual factory shutdown would be moved to the start of April, to coincide with the weeks after the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.^

Mr Peter said the UK remained a country with "strategic importance" to BMW, but said the prospect of Brexit was already causing "tension in the UK car market".

He also claimed that an ad-hoc agreement, allowing Britain to adopt the regulations of the World Trade Organisation, but to offer a bespoke , zero-tariff deal to European car makers, was all but impossible.

"We do not believe this is realistic," said Mr Peter. "The legal consideration is much more complicated."

ShinyElena · 03/10/2018 11:19

I love the festival poster. The rest is just heart-breaking.

ShinyElena · 03/10/2018 11:30

Theresa May says she has stopped reading morning newspapers as it is not good for her ‘wellbeing’

The PM instead now relies on a daily summary from aides at her regular 8.30am meeting with them at No10

A senior Downing Street figure told The Sun the decision for Mrs May not to plough through the newsprint is “to protect her from a daily diatribe of woes”.

The source added: “None of that is any good for her self belief or wellbeing.

“Occasionally she might dip into The Times, but she’s stopped reading the others”.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/7402940/theresa-may-newspapers-donald-trump/

ShinyElena · 03/10/2018 11:31

Richard Moss @BBCRichardMoss

They’re putting the Prime Ministerial podium in at #cpc2018 for Theresa May’s conference-closing speech. There are no magnetic letters to tumble this year. PM just has to hope the electronic screens behind her don’t begin a Windows Update.

11:24 AM - Oct 3, 2018

prettybird · 03/10/2018 11:56

Can I be sick now? Envy

The Maybot coming into stage to Dancing Queen and dancing Shock

woman11017 · 03/10/2018 11:59

And now she's proving Peter Hitchens who said england's religion is the wars.

prettybird · 03/10/2018 12:00

It goes downhill. Now she is invoking the spirit of the World Wars Hmm

Implying Saying that the men who returned from those Wars want what is happening to the UK and that we need to rekindle that spirit Shock

DGRossetti · 03/10/2018 12:02

Had three magazines delivered today ...

Proceedings of the Norse Lesbian Myth collective (guaranteed to rune your day)

Private Eye (see pic)

and the BBC History Magazine. This month it's cover says "WW1 - WAS IT WORTH IT ?". Eerily apposite given where we are ....

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
prettybird · 03/10/2018 12:02

Cross posted Woman

I am equally disgusted. Angry

woman11017 · 03/10/2018 12:07

prettybird My grandfather dodged U boats as a merchant navy captain, keeping this country supplied with food during the last world war. He was a devoted tory.
Like most who defended us from nazis he would have been revolted by this one giving this speech.

TheElementsSong · 03/10/2018 12:08

Thanks pretty and woman for watching the speech and reporting here, to save my TV Grin.

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