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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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lonelyplanetmum · 02/10/2018 20:00

My question is when do you think most people are going to start really sitting up and paying attention?

I don't think they will unless there's something dramatic like no flights, or empty supermarket shelves.

Even businesses leaving to establish Euro hubs, the pound plummeting, Westminster accumulating powers is ignored by the majority. There's a " it would all have happened anyway" " It'll be ok" attitude. And the island of Ireland is irrelevant to most.

Mrsr8 · 02/10/2018 20:07

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:09

I think people are noticing , but there is a belief that no UK government could or would do anything that would cause serious harm to its citizens, denial is an extremely strong emotion.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:11

Denial causes people to not act in their best interests, it is fascinating to watch it in action, if you are removed enough from the situation not to be effected. Unfortunately I seldom am Sad

woman11017 · 02/10/2018 20:11

denial is an extremely strong emotion
The whole thing is from an abuser's handbook.

HalfStar · 02/10/2018 20:25

I just typed out a long reply and then deleted it all because I don't even know where to start. Denial, the lack of understanding that Northern Ireland (who what when? Hmm) is actually a Thing (a thing that makes Brexit impossible on 20 million fronts)...

I tell myself that there's got to be a large dose of official silencing /gagging going on behind closed doors because otherwise I honestly don't know.

jasjas1973 · 02/10/2018 20:32

Agree that skilled trades should have parity of esteem with undergrad courses

What a load of crap!

There is a reason you need an AAB at A level inc a science to study as an Occupational therapist or Physiotherapist but need 5 decent GCSE's to train to be a sparky or a plumber at a FE on day release.

You have no idea of the amount of work/knowledge involved to get a good degree and then there is the post grad study.......

The push toward higher education is a great idea, its a pity it wasn't done early, we d not have such a stupid electorate now.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:34

Halfstar what you have to understand is that a large % of the population believe WE as in the government sorted out the NI issue yonks ago , they cannot understand why people are still going on about it , its fixed now, everyone is happy , nothing to see here ever. Why on earth are you all getting so shirty about a few extra border controls ? Surely it is nothing more than slightly annoying ? And a bunch of people voted for something you didn't , and cannot understand why you are being so difficult ? Hmm

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:35

^^ I think that sums it up fairly , anyone care to add ?

SwedishEdith · 02/10/2018 20:36

My question is when do you think most people are going to start really sitting up and paying attention?

I don't think most people really pay attention to detail. I don't think they ever have which is why this referendum was deeply irresponsible. I overheard someone this week ask, "Can I just check, does No deal mean everything stays the same or nothing stays the same?" If I told you the context of this conversation your head would explode.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:39

Interesting viewpoint Jas , I wonder who gets more per hour ?

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 20:40

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jacob-rees-mogg-attends-latest-our-future-our-choice-stunt-1-5719509

The leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has attended a “funeral” for Brexit at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham.

(contd)

Moussemoose · 02/10/2018 20:42

One of my concerns is that if Brexit doesn't happen then a 'No Brexit Myth' will emerge.

After WW1 many Germans believed they did not actually lose the war because German was never invaded and they thought they had been 'stabbed in the back'.

If by any miracle Brexit doesn't happen then a myth will emerge that it was only stopped by corrupt politicians, that it could have been wonderful if only we had committed to Brexit as a nation. You can see the seeds of that narrative being sown.

We are dammed if we do and dammed if we don't.

Moussemoose · 02/10/2018 20:44

And my point - which I forget to make in my last post - is that truth and facts are only tangential to the myth.

Once the story is told it becomes true because someone said so.

SusanWalker · 02/10/2018 20:45

I was working in a hospital in the run up to the 2015 election. A colleague, highly intelligent, highly qualified, admitted she didn't know anything about any of the parties, what they stood for, literally nothing. The only news she accessed was the hourly updates on heart radio in the office. She never watched the news or read a paper or anything. I suspect there are plenty of people like this in the country.

On the subject of cats we have just been to minor injuries with DS (bloody rugby) and they had a hospital cat wandering around. Dd was thrilled when it curled up on the chair next to her and she gave it a pet. Our local railway station has a cat too. It lives in the ticket office and is taken care of by the staff.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 20:48

I could live with a 'No Brexit Myth' if the UK media gets its arse into gear.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 20:49

halfstar We're in the Naughty Corner of MN alomg with the RadFms
because we don't believe nanny can stop the coming shitstorm

We won't be let out unless / until things really go pear-shaped in 2019, as a no-deal gets near, or after it actually happens.

YeOldeTrout · 02/10/2018 20:50

Oh well, if we are talking cats instead of Brexit coz frankly who wouldn't prefer to, I like to follow @RolfatWarwick.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 20:58

Low information citizens take their cue from tabloids

Among intelligent educated Leavers, who have all the tools to analyse and think, there is great denial
because they would have to accept they have made a terrible decision which will harm the country longterm and most of its people.

They will engage in every possible displacement activity, from denial to blaming everyone else for things going wrong

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 21:05

I don't know if this process will be finished in time to maintain flights in /out of the UK, but this is part of Brexit prep by an EU agency
And an example that sometimes our interests coincide:

Adam Fleming@adamfleming (BBC Brussels reporter)
EU aviation agency @EASA stepping up No Deal #Brexit preparations by saying UK firms can now apply to convert their EU licences into third-country approvals.

In other words, an EU agency is sort-of treating the UK like a non-member already.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 21:10

Varadkar says Good Friday Agreement not up for renegotiation

Warning UK govt - and DUP - if they'll listen
to stop trying to use Brexit to castrate the GFA
and to forget DUP aims of abandoning police equality moves and of renegotiating All-Ireland electricity

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1002/999351-good-friday-agreement/

MyBrexitUnicornDied · 02/10/2018 21:26

We won't be let out unless / until things really go pear-shaped in 2019

We won’t be let out then either. No one likes being told “I told you so”

prettybird · 02/10/2018 21:27

If we're talking cats, here are my three stress reducers Smile

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Mightybanhammer · 02/10/2018 21:27

lonely agree completely. It's very depressing.

SusanWalker · 02/10/2018 21:34

Pretty your cats are beautiful. I wish I could have a cat. Envy

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