Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
70
woman11017 · 02/10/2018 17:08

@faisalislam
NEW: PM tells me on @SkyNews that WTO tariffs “would kick in” if there’s a No Deal Brexit in a few months time:
“we would go onto the basis of WTO tariffs and so those world trade organisation tariffs would kick in”
10% on cars, 30%+ dairy, 3% engines...

English kids' teeth are bad enough already. Milk will be up to nearly a quid a pint.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 17:16

Brexit: Did DUP MP say 'build Irish border as high as you like'?

Also reported elsewhere that the DUP want to tear up key provisions of the GFA:

  • Arlene Foster wants to abandon the 50:50 recruitment requirement for the PSNI (police) which was intended to redress the low % of Catholics there
  • Jeffrey Donaldson said the GFA will need to be renegotiated if the all Ireland electricity market is threatened by a hard border.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/brexit-did-dup-mp-say-build-irish-border-as-high-as-you-like-37375843.html

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 17:21

{English kids' teeth are bad enough already. Milk will be up to nearly a quid a pint.}
When milk is sold for less than it costs to produce, as an incentive to get you into a particular supermarket things are bound to go wrong. That isn't Brexit of course but it leads to you thinking that some things should be cheap. If sugar was say four times the price today, people would be a lot healthier.

PCPlumsTruncheon · 02/10/2018 17:33

mobile.twitter.com/wooferendum/status/949195480256471040/video/1

I’m not Richard Dawkins’ biggest fan but I think this gives a succinct summary.
Is anyone going to the wooferendum on Sunday?
I don’t have a dog but apparently cats are welcome although I doubt I can train mine to walk on a lead in 5 days.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
PCPlumsTruncheon · 02/10/2018 17:37

Sorry, wrong link. This is my 11 year old nephew’s s entry for his school’s ‘International bake off’ competition. Dsis swears blind that it was his idea.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 17:40

May:
"I thought Boris would be a good foreign secretary and he was a good foreign secretary." 🙄🤦🏻‍♀️

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 17:41

Clever MiniPlums Star

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 17:43

Plumbs You must realise:
You don't train cats; they train you

If cats had opposable thumbs to open tins, they might have Soylent human flavour

PCPlumsTruncheon · 02/10/2018 17:47

www.wooferendum.org/

PCPlumsTruncheon · 02/10/2018 17:54

mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/catsagainstbrexit?lang=en

The cats of Britain are against Brexit. Ironically, the anti Brexit campaign has brought out the surreal British sense of humour that I love.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 02/10/2018 18:03

The government including other people's spending in 'their' education spending defense. Quelle surprise.

borntobequiet · 02/10/2018 18:03

I heard a programme about cats with opposable thumbs yesterday. Or was it another dream?
FWIW I teach apprentices. In secondary, I had to get cross at least once a day. In the past 5 years in FE, I’ve got cross 4 times. There’s a thread at the moment about appalling behaviour in lectures at University (some posters saying they behaved equally badly 25 years ago).

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 18:04

James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Word is that Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds are seeing Theresa May this evening. Suspect meeting might be quite robust...

The DUP have a problem.
No Deal Brexit means a hard border and a push for a united ireland.
A border in the sea, means they are not part of the union enough for their ideology.
They were edging towards wanting a softer option last week.
Now when there is talk of staying in the customs union longer or a border in the irish sea they are backing away.

But the reality is, that if they don't back the PM, then the government has a minority and can be defeated - and might even fall.

Which means they might well get one of the options above they don't like.

Plus they won't be in government and they won't get their kick backs from the Tories.

May at this point does have the upper hand. They will make a lot of noise and complain, but they know the deal too.

They will have to suck up what May says...

...unless they back Boris for a leadership challenge BEFORE Brexit Day.

Note, it has to be before Brexit day, or they have the same problem they have if they end the government deal with Tories.

And Boris can't offer them anymore options than May anyway.

And thats why they are making purring noises at Boris today. Not because they are on side, but because its trying to get leverage on May. Leverage that makes fuck all difference because all options lead to them being screwed or hung out to dry.

They might want to rip up the GFA, but it makes no odds. Politically they will be damaged one way or another.

They are just waking up to the inevitable and trying to come up with a damage limitation exercise to pass the political blame.

OP posts:
DarlingNikita · 02/10/2018 18:04

we would go onto the basis of WTO tariffs and so those world trade organisation tariffs would kick in

Am I wrong or do you have to negotiate and agree WTO terms? They don't just 'kick in' just like that, do they?

borntobequiet · 02/10/2018 18:04

Here:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polydactyl_cat
It was on the Museum of Curiosity.

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 18:15

I think WTO terms are the 'framework' for deals but not the actual deals themselves. I have a feeling there is a 'default' position which can be entered fairly quickly but it is terrible for the economy. I have a feeling it basically puts 10% on everything coming in and going out of the country. Actually doing 'real' deals can take 10 years.

YeOldeTrout · 02/10/2018 18:53

(afaik) WTO sets the rules in absence of any deals.

One of the rules is to treat everyone the same (in absence of a deal). So if Japan/Canada/Korea/EU have a default tariff of 20% on widgets from no-deal partners, they will have to set that same 20% tariffs against everyone's widgets they don't have a deal with. They can't make one-off exceptions unless it's a formal arrangement. Also... most recent trade deals have 'most favoured nation' clauses. That means, for instance, that UK can't get a better deal with SKorea, Japan or Canada than those countries already give to EU (else EU gets to move to the better deal we might try to strike).

Another way the WTO rules works, if UK says "0% tariffs on bananas" they have to offer 0% to everyone. ERG argues we can have zero-tariffs on just about all imports.

In which case, who would bother to make a trade deal with UK that covered bananas? Can't get better than 0%.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 18:56

The UK submitted its quotas and schedules to the WTO
AS soon as these are accepted by all WTO members, the UK can trade on WTO terms

Problem is:
some countries have already objected to the UK's proposals
These include the USA and iirc, NZ, Australia, Argentina
Expect some other countries - especailly with old grudges - to use this power to squeeze concessions / money out of the UK
The EU will stand by, neutral.

Much bigger problem:
No country in the world trades solely on WTO terms; every one has some trade deals

There is a reason for this : with countries increasingly joining trade blocs, there is little space for a lone wolf, unless maybe it is a superpower

prettybird · 02/10/2018 19:08

unless maybe it is a superpower

You see, there is the nub of the problem. There are those amongst the Brexiteers who genuinely think that the UK is still an economic superpower (as well as a military one Hmm) - not recognising that when it was , it was on the back ( almost literally) of its colonies Empire Confused

IDS yesterday was going on about not letting pesky Ireland get in the way of a trading agreement between two great trading blocs HmmAngry

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 19:09

{Palestinian diplomat says UK must lead the Middle East peace process}
This seems misguided. Do they want BoJo, Hunt or May to take the lead?
Interesting that Guy Verhofer's piece as reported in the Independent hasn't made it to the BBC or Sky news. I think he was a star!

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 19:12

In fairness the UK probably should take at least some responsibility for the middle east as it was partly to blame for making the mess in the first place.

HalfStar · 02/10/2018 19:37

hi all, been lurking on these threads for a while, so thanks to all who contribute.

Following Brexit proceedings agog from over here in Ireland. Each time I'm on MN I expect Active conversations to be full of Brexit threads with questions and concerns...it never is!

My question is when do you think most people are going to start really sitting up and paying attention? Or is there some kind of secret ban on too many hard facts being broadcast - industries told to not blab too much? Sorry haven't phrased this well, am bfing and knackered. Just can't figure it out.

DoctorTwo · 02/10/2018 19:38

All very well and good talking up the nobility of education but when things like the nhs need more money we have to make choices

Really? Why? I'd love to see your reasoning.

Mightybanhammer · 02/10/2018 19:42

halfstar any Brexit related thread tends to get moved over here unless the OP asks otherwise. Hmm
Make of that what you will.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 19:46

Hard choices -yes. We spent £350 million a week on tax cuts for the wealthy and replacing Trident, let' spend it on the NHS, education and affordable housing.

I have no idea what the cost of those two items is, it's a fantasy figure I made up, but so was the Leave campaign's figure.

Swipe left for the next trending thread