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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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10degreestostarboard · 02/10/2018 14:58

Motherof dragons

...so, err,why shouldn’t your children be paying for their (world class) university courses again?

Or should poor folk contribute from their taxes instead?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:06

10degrees State help is of particular important to students from poor families

I grew up very poor with a disabled widowed mum who could barely keep us both until I finished A levels.
I would never have gone to uni and dragged us out of poverty, had a chance at a better life, if I'd had to take on a loan.

It would have been terrifying
It was bad enough resisting the "no good comes of getting ideas above your station"
as well as the pressure in our social circle for me to get an ft job and start supporting mum, so she could retire
(she was 40 years older)

My fees were paid for my STEM Bsc, MSc, Phd (I changed fields a bit)
as well as an adequate maintenance grant.

So, I left Uni without any debt and the qualifications that changed my life

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:10

Students in most of the EU pay no or very low fees
Why should Uk students be deprived of this route to upward mobility ?

imo, it's partly because thsoe already at the top, or even the middle rungs, want to pull up the ladders
It's also because it*s easy to keep poor people down if they are less well-educated

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 15:13

Jean-Claude Juncker, signalling that he expects a row with the British prime minister at an upcoming “moment of truth” summit.

Presumably as a "bloody difficult woman" May will be looking forward to this?

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 15:13

I HATE TUITION FEES.

I marched in 1985, when Keith Joseph start the idea of charging. And as I have said to DS ever since, "Sorry, we let you down Sad"

10degreestostarboard · 02/10/2018 15:15

Nope - our mistake was in sending everyone to university when not all are suited. All we have done is devalued the degree qualification and passed on debt

Which is why those like mother of dragon moaning is mildly irritating. Her children are at good universities and with good onwards prospects. Why shouldn’t they contribute to that?

The real con trick is on the ba(hons) courses in community services at a rubbish former poly.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 15:21

..so, err,why shouldn’t your children be paying for their (world class) university courses again?

Well for your old Etonians, like Johnson, £9500 p.a. is an absolute bargain.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 15:25

Nope - our mistake was in sending everyone to university when not all are suited.

And the Tories plan for decent alternatives? Until they stop sending their own sons to Eton, who walk into Oxford, despite being of the sterling calibre of Boris Johnson, then nothing will happen.

Mightybanhammer · 02/10/2018 15:26

Agree 10 degrees about the devaluing and not all being suited. Whilst the opening out of higher ed sounded good in theory, in practice it hasn't worked. The level of debt is astronomical. I was appalled at how much some have to pay for accommodation- it sounded very good mind you, en suites and all that. In my day.... mouldy back to back terrace.... outside loo.... no central heating ... Grin anyway a bit OT.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:31

When I went to Uni, it was only for 5-6% of kids

When Blair announced his plans of degrees for half the population, he had no plans to expand the number of jobs x 10 to make it worthwhile for students

Many of us expected supply and demand to devalue degrees. So no surprise

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:33

We should feturn to funding the top 5-6%
it was only those from the pooret families, like me, who got the full mintenance grant
That boosted social mobility .. which has gone down since.

The grant was scaled down according to income, so the upper mc received zero

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 15:34

...so, err,why shouldn’t your children be paying for their (world class) university courses again?

Depends on whether you view education as a commodity, or as one part of a mosaic that goes to make up society.

One of the beauties of learning is that it can lead to completely unexpected - and unquantifiable - discoveries.

For myself, I've always thought a mark of a civilised society is that it supports every citizen in bettering themselves - even if there's no immediate apparent benefit. Whether to themselves, or to society. And as such, I've always believed that people should be encouraged to attain the highest possible level of education they can. If that means that the state pays for the courses then so be it.

Instead, we've gone the other way (the quote about knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing nailed it). Education is merely a Henry Ford type process intended to take raw materials at Reception, and churn out money making robots out of University.

I am afraid that many posters here will have heard discussions amongst their DCs peers about what they want to study. And rather than choosing a subject from interest, they have to think "what's the best earning career I could get into ?"

The ultimate end point of this "logic" is that people who are deemed to be capable of earning more than they are will be penalised for the workshy slackers they really are.

"You got good grades at A level. You could have been earning £50,000 a year by now. Instead you're content to lounge around on £20,000 a year ... well don't think the state is going to sub you that £30,000 - we'll take it off your NHS allowance."

NHS allowance ? How long before we see caps (like my DB has on his US insurance policy) on care. His is $1,000,000 btw. Or was, I think he was advised to up it.

Mightybanhammer · 02/10/2018 15:37

Well quite. Should have said ' sounded good to some in theory.' My ex was an academic. Some of the essays he said were so poorly written they made no sense, so had to start with the basics of how to write! Children let down at school, combined with channelling far too many non academically inclined towards university.

Mightybanhammer · 02/10/2018 15:42

I was at university same time as you I think big choc - I was part funded but parents paid a top up according to means. Some parents refused to pay the top up and left a few of my friends in difficulties. The grant was not generous by any means and I was absolutely expected to live within it, so I did. Skills learned in those days may come in handy again shortly.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:42

European Parliament's Brexit chief rejects calls for extension of talks

Unfortunately for us, they all speak English, can read UK papers & watch UK speeches

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-guy-verhofstadt-tory-conference-european-parliament-eu-a8564401.html

Speaking to MEPs on Tuesday Guy Verhofstadt rejected Boris Johnson’s suggestion that talks should be extended,
arguing that “enough mess has been created” by Brexit already.

“Let’s stop it,” he said, branding the actions of some Tories in recent weeks “insane”.
We will never undermine the principles of the European project to rescue a political party
who is not even capable to find a common line on the mess of Brexit,” < blunt >

...“When you see these insane notions of some Tory politicians of the last days:
Boris Johnson, his latest invention, you have seen that?
He will solve the problem by building a bridge between the UK mainland and Ireland.
Mr Boris Johnson is more known for burning bridges than for building bridges!
....
“Then there’s Mr Rees-Mogg who’s saying ‘yeah, I have the proposals for the future of Brexit, ordinary citizens and their savings can be secure after Brexit!’
and in the meantime he’s opening for himself an investment fund in Ireland, to transfer his money to Ireland.”

He added: “Jeremy Hunt, who is comparing the European Union with the Soviet Union.
But in his case that is not so abnormal: he has once even confused Japan with China. This is not the first time this is happening.
“The previous time he was insulting his wife, but this time it’s something far more different: he’s insulting not us, but millions of ordinary citizens who have lived under Soviet rule for so long.
...
Other senior Brussels politicians also used the debate to tear into senior Conservatives.
Manfred Weber, leader of the centre-right European People’s Party and an ally of Angela Merkel, told MEPs that British politicians would have to start taking responsibility for their mistakes. Grin
“Brexit means leaving the European Union and this means losing the advantages of this Union

“The big challenge for the politicians in Great Britain like Hunt and Johnson is probably that after March next year they have to take over responsibility.
“For the first time they have to explain to people what they did, what are the mistakes of their political engagement, and they can’t blame Brussels anymore for what is happening in Britain"
Hmm < Brexiters will never accept blame >

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 15:45

I managed to save a bit on my grant - being already used to frugal living - and I saved all my pay from holiday jobs, minus keep to my mum.

So I started work with a good nest egg already
All my career is thanks to state help at uni Smile

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 15:46

I'll probably regret this, but one thing 10degrees has a point about is University is not for everyone. Which isn't and should never mean it's in any way "superior" to any alternatives.

Like many systems in the UK today, education is really more about benefiting the people working in it, than the people it's supposed to serve. A fact that can be deduced from looking at it.

If education were intended to benefit the pupils - and the wider society - it would drop this ludicrous obsession with league tables, and regimented exams, and deliver a much more flexible system where the absolute core basics were made rock solid (maths, IT, English, second language, and a blend of history/geography/citizenship). From there, people could dip in and out as they felt able and best prepared. So the more academic kids might go on to do subjects for exams. Others might be encouraged to investigate trades and apprenticeships. Those that don't proceed to exams immediately would be able to return 1,2,10,20 years later, since education would be viewed and provided as a lifelong pursuit, not something that stops at 16.

As can be seen, I've hardly put a Beveridge scale of effort into the idea. But since it's never going to happen, I'm probably better off investing my efforts elsewhere.

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 15:46

My parents could have never afforded to send me to uni. They worked in agriculture in Hungary. All my education was free and I also received maintenance grants and scholarship. I will forever be grateful and try my best to repay it.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 15:53

The grant was scaled down according to income, so the upper mc received zero

Especially if their parents didn't pony up.

Some of the poorest students I knew came from minted families who disapproved of their choices, so didn't pay.

10degreestostarboard · 02/10/2018 15:54

Dgrossetti

All very well and good talking up the nobility of education but when things like the nhs need more money we have to make choices

More doctors or more fine arts degrees for folks who will never hit an earnings threshold where they need to start paying their fees back...?

10degreestostarboard · 02/10/2018 15:55

Dgrossetti

Agree that skilled trades should have parity of esteem with undergrad courses

After all, ever tried to quickly find a reliable plumber!?

Motheroffourdragons · 02/10/2018 15:58

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

10degreestostarboard · 02/10/2018 16:01

Motherofdragons

Two points

  • no one is made to university: Fees shoud not be a surprise
  • taxpayers own the risk where low income graduates pay very little of their fees back

Education should be for our brightest and best not all and sundry

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 16:02

More doctors or more fine arts degrees for folks who will never hit an earnings threshold where they need to start paying their fees back...?

My key point was highest possible level. So if you can do a degree, go for it. But if you can't - well, it's not for everyone.

Following your shaky logic, we should make medical degrees free as a way to boost the number of doctors ?

There's also something which a lot of people miss when it comes to education. Whilst it's nice and helpful to have studied a subject to a degree. It's not the subject that's the key. It's the effort required to achieve it which is the real prize skill here. If someone is capable of doing a degree in Ancient Norse Lesbian Myths, they will have certain core skills which can be applied in all sorts of unrelated areas.

When I was studying IT in the 80s, hardly anyone who worked in IT had studied it at Uni. My first boss, and her boss, and her boss had History, English and some sort of oddball divinity degrees from their education. But were all very sharp when it came to computers.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 16:05

After all, ever tried to quickly find a reliable plumber!?

Er, no. All plumbing, electrics, roofing are done in house.

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