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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:52

Yup, susan Without the NI backstop, there is no WA (unless the RoI changes its mind)
hence a cliff edge no deal, no transition either

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 13:52

The only possible take-home message is that Theresa May is a treasonous prime minister selling Britain off to a foreign power.

As predicted (by me). Once you start using weapons like calling people traitors, then they will be turned against you. Her silence last year means she's now just as vulnerable. The biter bit.

Again.

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 13:53

I love Ian Dunt.

@IanDunt
He really didn't.

Replying to
@Bloomberg Brexit
BREAKING: Boris Johnson calls on Conservative Party to back Theresa May on Brexit

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 13:54

Meanwhile, poor Scott Adams has had to deal with a flood of job offers from the Tory party as a strategy adviser. They genuinely think he's a blue sky thinker.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 13:55

Ok, so what does Boris's speech actually mean other than shameless self-promotion?

prettybird · 02/10/2018 13:56

My impression when I spent my year (and later a term) in France as part of my degree and on subsequent holidays in France, Italy, Germany and Greece is that food is more expensive there but - and this sounds like a cliché - food is treated with respect and appreciated.

This results in both less waste (so reducing the overall cost) and a greater appreciation of "real" food. Hence the importance of the regular local markets, specialist shops (as in boulangeries, charcuteries, fromageries etc) and local/corner shops.

And that's before you factor in the greater proliferation of independent eateries compared to the national (and international) chains.

Compare the centre of Paris with the centre of London. Even in the CBD in Paris, you can still find decent food shops.

It's something dh and I have talked about a lot over the last 20 years: how government (and society) in the UK has become increasingly obsessed with the price of everything and the value of nothing. Angry

It's partly why the EU requirement to tender for all public sector procurement exercises causes such angst: we have literally lost the ability to write "value", "quality" and non-financial benefits into the tenders. And then we complain when the "cheapest" bids win and we don't like the quality of the products or services that we get Sad

derxa · 02/10/2018 13:57

It reminds me sometimes of growing up in the 1950s and 60s. Maybe derxa can say if this is like their family farm / area used to be I grew up in the 1960s. We had a dairy herd of around 100 which increased over the years to about two hundred. We raised hens which were supplied to farmers' wives for egg laying. Our dairy cows went out to pasture during the spring summer and autumn. The male calves went for beef.
Now dairy cows are often inside all year round and male calves are often not wanted because they are too skinny and rangy compared to the Friesians of decades gone by. I run a small flock of 100 ewes. Grass fed and out in most weathers. Sheep farming is the most traditional type of farming. We've had a price collapse in our breeding stock sales this year because some farmers have less winter feed due to drought. They can't afford to keep them. Brexit has made everyone nervous as well.

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 13:58

Dilbert is the best.

John Ashmore @Smashmore86
Former minister Jim O'Neill on the big challenge for the Tories:

"I guess key people in this party have to stop being dickheads, really"
12:04 pm · 2 Oct 2018

valysue@valysue
Replying to
@Smashmore86, and @MichaelPDeacon

A bit unlikely then.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 14:01

Dilbert is the best.

While true, I have a soft spot for Garfield too ...

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 14:08

It means May can not get ANY deal through the commons. It doesn't matter if its a brilliant deal. She can't get it through.

It means no withdrawal agreement possible.

This leaves us at a point where the only option left is to say we will remain in the customs unions, until a deal on NI can be reached (it can't). These effectively means staying in the customs union indefinitely in theory.

In practice it doesn't mean that either. Cos until a deal is reached, there is no extension period and we accidentally Brexit by default.

But this is how Remainers are (wrongly) seeing it.

UNLESS May decides to pull a fast one with the help of the EU and pull a deal out on 28th/29th March next year which no one can vote on cos there is no time left, or we are in a situation where the country is already in melt down and Labour are begging for a deal. Any deal. Because they know that the opportunity for a GE, extension or a vote have gone and they also know that the damage has been done and it'll still be a shit deal.

May isn't in control. Remember this.

She can only beg the EU for an eleventh hour deal to save the country and to bypass parliamentary process by using the power of the executive.

She is instead having all her strings pulled by other people. She is no longer free to make decisions.

This is why Boris's framing of May as 'May the Cheat' fits in.

If she pulls that trick, Boris is first in the queue for a leadership bid and gets to shout 'I told you so'.

But yes, I would fully expect that EU talks will effectively break down later this month and there will be a MASSIVE push on No Deal planning.

Panic will start to set in, as people realise its really happening in mid Jan - especially if we have a cold winter and the annual NHS winter melt down is bad.

That date of the 29th Jan... yeah...

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ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 14:13

So who will be the king of ashes? Johnson or Corbyn?

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 14:15

The gangsters. And the smugglers. And the money launderers.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 14:16

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
BoJo blow as no show from bro Jo.. Minister brother was not in the front row for Boris speech despite having a seat reserved for him.....

Lib Dem supporting sister Rachel did turn up though.

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 14:17

Seems cocaine is to be taxed, to raise some money.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45707227

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 14:30

Speaking of public finance initiatives, wasn't there some talk on these very threads a while back about the government playing a little fast and loose with how it defines "spending" on education ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45706603

If you're a student paying tuition fees, you might be surprised to find that the cost of going to university is being included as "spending" in the government's defence of its record on school funding.

But when ministers faced accusations of under-funding schools in England, a figure they quoted widely as evidence of high spending included billions of pounds of university fees being paid by students, rather than only government spending.

(contd)

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 14:31

Sorry, losing the plot, why mid Jan for 'major upset'?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 14:40

because after then it's too late for a deal to be approved by the E27 heads of govt and the EP,
even with the 1 month A50 extension that would avoid UK MEPs

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 14:41

It is when the financial markets are expected to decide there will be no deal,
so Sterling expected to plummet
and maybe some big names to pull out of the UK

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 14:43

Thank you.

Motheroffourdragons · 02/10/2018 14:44

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Motheroffourdragons · 02/10/2018 14:48

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Motheroffourdragons · 02/10/2018 14:49

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 14:49

Derxa After the incredibly long hot summer - 30C until 2 weeks ago, still 22C this coming Saturday - I expect low crop yield and price rises in 2019
The E27 as a bloc is self-sufficient in food, but probably less / no surpluses to export next year

Even considering the different tastes in cuts of meat etc, I expect many E27 producers will have less available to export.
So some may decide to skip the unknown unknowns that would be involved in exporting food to the UK from 29 March

Motheroffourdragons · 02/10/2018 14:52

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Mrsr8 · 02/10/2018 14:55

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