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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 12:24

I think it might be through proper engagement in the EU processes (euphemism).

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 12:28

Aren't vets quite useful in farming too ? Maybe the solution - like carers - is just up the wages. I'm sure it can't be that difficult.

Actually thinking about it, while people are learning, we might save money on abattoirs Hmm - waste not, want not (as I am amazed we've not heard from camp Brexit, yet).

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/10/01/vets-last-ditch-warning-shows-insanity-of-anti-immigrant-bre

missclimpson · 02/10/2018 12:31

Reminds me of the apochryphal translation of 'les agriculteurs français vis à vis le marché commun as "French farmers live to screw the common market" 😀

Mrsr8 · 02/10/2018 12:37

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 12:44

Having MEPs that attend debates and are awake and sober probably helps.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:03

Peregrina My late dad was an excellent chef, who taught my mum.
Fortunately for me, although I grew up poor after he died early, this was before supermarkets and processed meals existed in our area.
I'm an Aspie and was very fussy until uni - still am really !

I respect the food and the animals that nourish my bod, so I respect the farmers who raise the crops and the animals, who invest their work and their emotions.

I'd much rather pay them, than supermarket shareholders.

I always choose to live in villages, when in Germany, for the quality of life, especially the taste of the food.
It reminds me sometimes of growing up in the 1950s and 60s.
Maybe derxa can say if this is like their family farm / area used to be:

Local farms, vineyards and cafes provide work for a lot of voters here, small businesses that are often passed down the generations
Politicans have to consider the interests of all these voters.

I've just a short walk to a small farm which has the large courtyard they all seem to have, where they built a shed / shop - so no extra rent or rates to pay
As well as fruit, veg, eggs they sell homemade strawberry wine from their own berries, cider from their own apples

The wineshop nearby is also built on a house - they sell wine made from their own grapes in the vineyards nearby

The local bakery and pastry shops are family run, as are the little restaurants and cafes I go to, that serve homemade dishes

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:05

All these small German businesses make a decent enough living,
maybe because we are prepared to pay a bit more here for food that is produced locally

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 13:18

Congrats Mrsr8

Johnson clearly went with housing for millenials instead of bringing back public hanging or the empire.

MyBrexitUnicornDied · 02/10/2018 13:32

Our Irish passports arrived today

That’s great news mrs8

I missed most of Boris’s speech which is probably a good thing for my blood pressure.

HurricaneFloss · 02/10/2018 13:33

Oh I bet Nadine Dorres is all in a flutter over Barnstorming Boris.

He is good at talking tosh to the converted.

HurricaneFloss · 02/10/2018 13:35

*Dorries Grin

MsForestier · 02/10/2018 13:36

Mrs congrats!

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:38

Emilio Casalicchio @e_casalicchio
Here's the VIP list for the @BorisJohnson #CPC18 speech.

MP names you can read are
Ben Bradley
Andrew Bridgen
Conor Burns
David Davis
David Davies
Nadine Dorries
Iain Duncan Smith
David Evenett
Mark Francois
Zac Goldsmith
Chris Green
Rob Halfon
Bernard Jenkin
Andrea Jenkyns
Jo Johnson
Sheryll Murray
Priti Patel
Owen Paterson
Andrew Rosindell
Desmond Swayne
Ross Thompson

I also note the name Richard Tyce...

I think there is only one on the list who is anything of a surprise.

Thats 21 MPs. Some do have + by their names (Patel has a plus 5), if they are all MPs that would take him up to 32. As a starting point I'd say thats less than I'd expect. More than I'd like.

Also, with a list like that, if you harbour any thoughts about Boris being willing to keep us in the EU or have a softer Brexit, please do shoot yourself in the head now and spare yourself the agony of finding out to the contrary.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:39

Congratulations, Mrsr8 on your continued FOM and possible escape route

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:42

Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov
Boris Johnson says Labour have a policy of holding a second referendum, which of course they don’t. #cpc2018
Boris Johnson speaks at length on the virtue of homeowning. Gives little detail beyond promising “devolution” on what he would do about increasing it. #CPC2018
Boris Johnson praises society’s “grafters and grifters.” Not entirely clear whether he understands what the latter word means. #cpc2018
Boris Johnson suggests the prime minister could be prosecuted for her Chequers plan. #cpc2018
Boris Johnson calls for the “unconstitutional” Irish backstop to be scrapped. The same Irish backstop he congratulated Theresa May for agreeing last December.

Lock her up? Honestly. Thats not even original.

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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:45

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Sorry did Johnson just say that Chequers "is not democracy"?

The only possible take-home message is that Theresa May is a treasonous prime minister selling Britain off to a foreign power.

This is extraordinary

Remainers/People's Vote should be ecstatic at this. Johnson essentially promising to vote against May's deal if it resembles Chequers.

By angrily saying you can't take up the fight from outside the EU, he is actually dismantling the Brexiters' most credible strategy. All but guarantees May's deal will be rejected in the Commons.

Well that was fucking mental.

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:46

EU anger over May's post-Brexit immigration plan

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/02/eu-anger-over-mays-post-brexit-immigration-plan

Senior EU figures have attacked Theresa May’s post-Brexit immigration plan with the president of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, signalling that he expects a row with the British prime minister at an upcoming “moment of truth” summit.

As May sketched out her plans to end freedom of movement and adopt a skills-based migration policy during a Tuesday morning tour of radio and TV studios, there were demands for a tit-for-tat response during a debate in the European parliament.

The plan to curb low-skilled immigration was seized upon by Manfred Weber, the German leader of the centre-right EPP group and a leading candidate to be the next European commission president.
...
In a sign of growing concern over the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, Weber, whose party is the largest group in the parliament, said that
a deal already agreed in talks over citizens’ rights should be ringfenced.
...
Juncker:
"when it comes to the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, we are sticking to the point of view that we have expressed so many times. Ireland first.”

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:47

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries
An electrifying speech from @BorisJohnson No other speaker at conference has had this response. #CPC18

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:48

Boris:
"If we cheat the electorate – and Chequers is a cheat - we will escalate the sense of mistrust. W"

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:48

George Trefgarne @GeorgeTrefgarne
I watched @BorisJohnson speech on YouTube. I enjoyed it, like those in the room. But total number of viewers never went above 1,896. People want solutions to Brexit not just rhetoric.

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SusanWalker · 02/10/2018 13:48

Boris hasn't done his homework (surprise surprise) as he seems to think we can ditch the backstop then use the implementation period to get ready for Canada plus/WTO. Without the backstop surely there is no implementation period.

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:49

Iain Dale @IainDale
Just been to see the Boris speech. Utterly lacklustre. Nothing new. He just can't make a good speech when he's trying to be statesmanlike. Couple of good jokes, ritual 'chuck Chequers', but where was the beef? Still at the butcher's shop...

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BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 13:50

Disgusting Dorries licking the parts of Boris's anatomy that I don't want to visualise 🤮

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:51

George Osborne @George_Osborne
Our second edition ⁦*@EveningStandard*⁩ as Boris speaks at the Tory Conference

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 13:51

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
For the faithful that was a good, well- crafted speech from Johnson.And if it wasn’t a leadership bid, I’m a banana

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