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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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FishesaPlenty · 02/10/2018 10:39

This is the second time I have been told, entirely seriously, by young Conservatives here, that colonialism should be Britain's post Brexit future

I read that as "cannibalism should be Britain's post Brexit future". Grin

It seemed to fit in with some of the other comments on this thread as well...

derxa · 02/10/2018 10:40

That field Boris was running through wasn't a field of wheat. What an arsehole he is though.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 10:40

Yes, we referred to the cabbage DM cooked as 'killed cabbage'.
I don't remember any wooden mushrooms, except for wooden darning mushrooms!

With Brexit, we can go back to those days! What fun!

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 10:41

The agricultural vote is not important any more. There are not enough votes in it.

Labour don't even bother in a lot of rural areas - this is why you tend to see the LDs being the second party in more rural parts.

At the moment the swing votes are seen as being in small and medium sized town. Thats who Labour and the Conservatives are both pitching at in a big way. The Conservatives also need to do a fair about in big cities and suburbs to retain their traditional vote which largely came out of home ownership.

Cos no one cares about the agricultural vote, the policy area will be neglected. The irony here being that if we are going to be more self sufficient food wise its the most important issue.

We risk a situation where we risk starving many of our poorest because we treat agricultural labour as second class citizens who don't deserve to be listened to.

DH pointed out that if you live in a city there are less local produce outlets around. If you live more rurally then you might have more options. Expensive ones, but options none the less.

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SusanWalker · 02/10/2018 10:42

From the Belfast Telegraph:

DUP leader Arlene Foster praised Boris Johnson's "positive" Brexit vision saying it was wrong to think the Good Friday Agreement was "sacrosanct" in determining the final deal with the EU.

The MLA was speaking to the Daily Telegraph ahead of an appearance at an event at the Conservative Party conference on Tuesday.

Poll: 60% of voters believe Theresa May will agree to Brexit border in Irish Sea

She said it was wrong to suggest the 1998 peace accord could not be altered to accommodate the final Brexit deal.

“It has been deeply frustrating to hear people who voted remain and in Europe talk about Northern Ireland as though we can’t touch the Belfast Agreement. Things evolve, even in the EU context," Mrs Foster said.

“There has been a lot of misinterpretation, holding it up as a sacrosanct piece of legislation.”

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 10:43

an older generation, who learned to cook from our parents, before heavily processed food was available.

DM - bless her - wasn't really into cooking. Very much a functional exercise. (Probably had all the fun driven out by a trio of disparate eaters, plus DF who worked all hours). But DF (again, not at all conforming to stereotypes) loved cooking, when he could, and was just as happy as DM to let me into the kitchen to see what was going on. I feel slightly privileged to have grown up thinking it was normal for men to cook. Something I very quickly discovered was not the case in the UK.

DW and I have been known to argue over who gets to cook Smile. I think currently we are leading the weather by a day with meals, as last night we had a lovely stew (with kidney Smile) when yesterday was beautiful. Would have been much more suited for today, looking at the sky (not cold though, 15C at the moment).

We recently did some sums and worked out that on average we spend £3.00 each on an evening meal because we cook from scratch (and count calories Grin)

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 10:48

{That field Boris was running through wasn't a field of wheat. }
I thought not too, but the picture was in the Sun and well.........
Never mind.
Wurzel Gummage!?

SusanWalker · 02/10/2018 10:57

Wurzel Gummage opened our first supermarket in the late seventies or could have been early eighties.

John.Redwood has just said that if free movement ending causes shortages in carers, then companies will have to pay carers more. Now I'm all for carers being paid more, but I can't see how that's going to happen when the social care budget is already so squeezed.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 10:59

Agriculture employs a tiny percentage of the population in the UK, something less than 1% I believe.

I live on the edge of town, but in the next village down there used to be five farms even after the war. There are now two, one of which seems quite prosperous still, but neither make their income solely from farming. One has a huge weekly car boot sale in the summer. They expect to lose a good chunk of land to house building, which might make it unviable. The farmer still supports the Tories though, or he did at the last two elections.

Peregrina · 02/10/2018 11:07

I think it was about 10 years ago, Delia had a cookery programme using instant foods. I thought at the time, "surely people know how to boil and mash spuds?" But it appears not.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 11:08

John.Redwood has just said that if free movement ending causes shortages in carers, then companies will have to pay carers more.

Which suggests there's not much skill in being a carer ... no lag to get qualifications, no need for certification. Just "turn up and care".

To be honest, I must admit I'm struggling to see the downsides. Maybe the vulcan has cracked it after all.

I wonder if we could roll it out to doctors and nurses ?

jasjas1973 · 02/10/2018 11:09

@SusanWalker

This is exactly how i interpret their immigration policy, this is fair enough if they plan to up skill the UK workforce and such immigration is short term BUT there is little mention of this, just £30m for FE tech.

I suspect that access to high paid jobs and universities will be the price of FTA with the worlds major economies.

So much for Mays "We want a deep and special partnership with the EU"

Deeply depressing.

DarlingNikita · 02/10/2018 11:13

They are going to let in professionals like them and the uk workforce will be filling the low skilled jobs surely?
Yes. Doesn't the article (or an article on this subject) actually say that?

It made me think of a TV show from a while back that followed an employment agency specialising in low-skilled work. They were bricking it at the thought of people from EU member states disappearing after Brexit, because most of their staff came from outside the UK. The British people who did come through their doors were either unable to work much/effectively/often through no fault of their own (disabilities, illness) or in some cases, frankly, couldn't be arsed to.

But it's just the same as that Leadsom (I think?) fantasy about how UK nationals would happily pack up and move to Norfolk or wherever for a couple of months in the summer to pick fruit. With their families being looked after and supported by fairy godmothers, one assumed.

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 11:18

{With their families being looked after and supported by fairy godmothers, one assumed}
Do the pickers from Eastern Europe have fairy godmothers to look after their families when they come to the UK to pick fruit and veg?

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 11:24

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Fairly understandable anger from Lobby colleagues at @GMB, @Channel4News and @5_News today that No10 has dumped PM's regular conference interviews with them, allegedly to preserve her voice. Running away never a good look.

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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 11:25

James Patrick @J_amesp
Discussing this the other day. The problem with a lot of what’s been facilitated in the world is that most people act in good faith, resulting in a critical lack of cynicism. In a world of criminality, it’s proven deadly.

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Peregrina · 02/10/2018 11:29

But it's just the same as that Leadsom (I think?) fantasy about how UK nationals would happily pack up and move to Norfolk or wherever for a couple of months in the summer to pick fruit.

I am 100% certain that this is not the sort of thing which Leave voters voted for. It is the sort of thing which working class people used to have to do. Before the war there used to be special hop picking trains to take East Enders down to the hop fields of Kent. Oh well, as my friend said, 'We were OK before'.

DarlingNikita · 02/10/2018 11:32

LeClerc, I don't know, you'd have to ask them. I'd assume though that it makes more financial sense to come from certain countries to work here, even temporarily, than for UK nationals to uproot for short periods within the UK. Seeing as this is the 'natural' pattern of how it's happened in the past.
I also seem to remember reading that there's a tendency for people to come from other EU countries short-term but then stay on, thus adding to the workforce, paying taxes, buying stuff and generally adding to the UK's economy.

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 11:32

Good luck with the trains now though!

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 11:46

Meanwhile, 2 and a half years too late ...

www.history.co.uk/shows/al-murray-why-does-everyone-hate-the-english/articles/uk-great-britain-british-isles-%E2%80%93-the

(Al Murray in a new series "Why does everyone hate the English"

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 11:53

I'm concerned that the remaining small farms will be driven into bankruptcy after anything but a very soft Brexit, with almost frictionless trade
I have been told that this is necessary anyway, citing what happened in New Zealand. Small farms disappeared to be replaced by big farms who were then much more profitable.
I think it’s missing the point that in the U.K. some areas exist only thanks to the farmers and the environment is such that only small farms could subside (I’m think about the Dales and the Noth Yorkshire Moors there - what we know as this pretty countryside wouod just disappear wo the sheep graZing)

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 11:54

Oh I missed a whole new page of comments!!

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 12:06

The Standard.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 12:09

It would take someone brave to do some 'social engineering' to accept that in many places in the UK farming is not 'profitable' but to employ farmers as 'groundkeepers' to look after the countryside.
I have no idea of figures but surely families working the land for a decent sustainable 'wage' is preferable to them signing up unemployed and living 'off the state' and doing nothing.
There has to be something 'in the blood' to make sheep farmers get up at stupid o'clock in the morning in mid winter to go out and look after their sheep etc. It all boils down to reasonable distribution of wealth. It is far more sexy to have gleaming tower blocks with bankers in them than folks trudging around in animal shit.

missclimpson · 02/10/2018 12:17

My farmer cousin walked round our French village open-mouthed at the tiny farms saying, "how can they make this work?".