Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

[RedToothBrush]

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

Food is more expensive here, in Germany, but it good quality and local
so I enjoy going to the farm shop every couple of days for my fruit, veg & eggs
and the local butcher who sells meat from the village farms.

It isn't that Germany has no poor people who can't afford to pay more,
but it seems that everyone except the poorest doesn't just look at price and convenience

There are far fewer processed ready meals in the supermarket - which is a strain for someone lazy like me - because it is absolutely the norm here to cook from scratch every day.

Fortunstely, I can eat out every day, good quality meals as standard and strangely cheaper than eating out in the UK.

France has always had a history of small farms which are heavily subsidised. Macron seems to have other ideas.
www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-breaks-french-taboo-on-farm-subsidies-cap-policy-eu-budget/

Boris Johnson 'would delay Brexit by six months if he topples Theresa May to become leader'

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-would-delay-brexit-by-six-months-if-he-topples-theresa-may-a3950736.html

Boris was never a brexitier, i suspect he regrets his decision.

How this helps his leadership bid i don't know, then again he introduced pollution charges to London and got away with that.

I like to have some sort of connection to my food.
Even though I don't have sufficient enthusiasm to gro or rear it, at least I see some of the people who do, in the farm shop

YouGov poll this week had very odd questions re. The Origins of WW1 and whether our DCs would enlist if a similar situation arose now.

Any extension of A50 would require unanimous agreement from the E27 countries; it is not something the UK can do unilaterally

• there is no court case about extension, only about unilateral revocation.

I suspect after all the disgraceful things our current and previous foreign secretaries have said, some or most would be very reluctant,
unless they receive assurances that the UK will concede on the NI border.

Also, they would want to avoid having UK MEPs, as a legal quirk means the MEPs would stay for 5 years

That's worries about food security, jobs, the rural economy;

But we were alright before, and it might be like Y2K, were still two statements I heard the other day. A number of others disabused them - how industry is no longer British owned, about the work we did for Y2K, but whether they listened is debatable. It will come to the crunch next spring, we felt.

Even with a deal, it could come to a crunch - with Javid's plans on immigration, how many are going to choose to come here, if they could more easily move to Germany or Sweden, or wherever?

I like to have some sort of connection to my food. I would suggest that most people don't care hence nobody will care when we get more imported meat which has been produced in horrible conditions.

Will Boris really say
""It was astonishing that he [Hammond] had absolutely nothing to say about the wealth-creating sector of the economy"

Like your literal "Fuck business" remark as Foreign Sec, you mean ?

I am sure Boris could do a deal where we would keep Nige away from Europe and we would get an extension of the negotiations. Fair deal, that is.

I have asked for seeds as Christmas present.

BigChoc, I nearly always cook from scratch, and usually take no more than 20 minutes preparing. You then need to allow for cooking time. I admit we do tend to have a lot of stew type concoctions, which don't need much attention once they are in the pan.

We are at the mercy of the weather.
It's pretty much the same weather in northern France, Belgium and NL. I think it's been a difficult year throughout the northern hemisphere.

Meanwhile, if people like portents or metaphors, the sky over Birmingham is a filthy dark dull grey.

We've had to put lights on in the house.

Well, imo poultry and animals that are raised in poor conditions produce less nourishing meat
So, my interest is by no means virtuous

The research suggesting meat, especially red meat, is harmful was done in the USA, where most people eat the heavily industrialised meat from huge agribusiness "animal factories" rather than farms.
More recent studies performed in Europe produce quite different results
US low carbers keep stressing "grass-fed" meat, because that is less common there, except for the rich

Also, I enjoy food more when I've walked through the fields and seen the crops,
seen how the cattle & sheep are roaming, game too.

Nothing beats a delic venison stew in the local restaurant after a long walk and seeing the occasional small deer whizzing by in the distance.
No, I don't feel sentimental, part of life's natural cycle so long as the animals have as natural a life as possible beforehand

Horrible imported meat like US chlorinated chicken?

It's pretty much the same weather in northern France, Belgium and NL. I think it's been a difficult year throughout the northern hemisphere. Yes and they are our fellow farmers and have suffered in the same way. They're not the enemy.

Can I explain what it was like for our in lamb ewes this March. We brought them all into the sheds. Then the snow blew into the sheds till it was six feet high. We had to clear the shed with a front loader.

I think around 1 in 6 French are involved in agriculture. My local employment exchange has a big banner up saying 'why not agriculture'.
Saying that there are relatively few other jobs in this area and villages are dying, partly because of supermarkets. From friends of relatives I know 3 farmers in the UK who have committed suicide. A slurry tank is not a nice way to go.

Peregrina You and I come from an older generation, who learned to cook from our parents, before heavily processed food was available.
(I can cook; I just prefer someone else to do the work)

I can still remember being taken to the first ever supermarket that opened in our area, which would have been in the early / mid-1960s.
We all wondered if this new-fangled idea would ever catch on (!) but expected people would usually prefer the butcher, baker, greengrocer etc - all the little shops that then filled the high street - not a takeway among them

We overlook the massive social changes that can result from new tech or new ideas.
Supermarkets are an early example of semi-automation

BigChoc - yup. I remember my local Co-op turning into a Supermarket. It was about the size of a Tesco Express.
A Chinese restaurant opened in my town in the early to mid sixties. It was about the only place a teenager between 16-18 could go for a night out. In a small town the pubs knew your mum or dad or neighbours and knew that you were 'six weeks younger than our Dave who won't be eighteen until next September', so no chance of sneaking in, even if you looked old enough.

Philip Hammond: UK will enforce hard border in Ireland if there is no Brexit deal

Speaking at a fringe event at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Hammond said: “The challenges around the Irish border are around the legal requirements we will have if we are not in a trade block within the European Union to operate the WTO compliant border, which does require checks at the border. That’s what the WTO rules require.”

www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-brexit-ireland-uk-will-enforce-hard-border-in-ireland-if-there-is-no-brexit-deal/

Watching all out politics. Tory immigration policy is nonsensical. Apparently we are only going to let in high skilled workers as this will encourage business to invest in their British workforce and turn them into high skilled workers also. At the same time we are not going to allow in low skilled workers.

They must think we are stupid. They are going to let in professionals like them and the uk workforce will be filling the low skilled jobs surely? I can't see what other consequence of this policy there could be.

Funnily enough though BigChoc, I didn't learn to cook from my DM, who hated cooking, and GM wasn't all that interested either. I learnt from a friend I shared a house with. Peppers, baked parsnips, cabbage cooked al dente, were all a revelation to me. Cabbage especially at home was cooked for a good 20 minutes on a rolling boil.

I think farms and rural life figures very large in the whole notion of le patrimoine here in France. People who have moved to the cities still feel attached to their rural roots, often keep a small property and visit for weekends and holidays. There are lots of TV programmes celebrating agriculture, local produce and rustic cuisine. It is one of the features in France that I find very noticeable.

My granny cooked cabbage like that Peregrina. Then beat it to death with a wooden mushroom thing.