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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 07:52

Esther Webber @ estwebber
Theresa May slaps down Hunt's EU-Soviet comparison: "I can tell you those two organisations are not the same" @BBCBreakfast

Really? No shit. So why is your foreign sec saying it. Why aren't you sacking him for saying it.

Shit. It's like Boris Johnson never resigned.

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1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 07:54

@Frumpety
That is pretty mild compared to what you find when you follow some of the links that have been references on this thread over the last few months.
Too many in the UK have got used to the 'sanitised' pictures in the news. The Balkan conflict was not far away and quite recent, to say it can't happen to some degree in the UK is not too far fetched.

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 07:55

Re the theory of brexiters wanting to destroy the EU and actually creating as much unrest as possible.
Actually I would agree with that but with the proviso that you need to add Russian influence too.
You don’t need the whole government to be involved, just a few members (because the No Deal scenario is actually easy option)
I also believe that because all TM actions are what will happen with a no deal(see her immigration plan, the ministery of Food, Henry VIII powers etc etc).
For a while, it has looked like to me that all the steps to have a totalitarian regime were been put in place. Incl the demonisation of a few groups, told that they were at the root of all evils - the immigrants and the disabled.

RedToothBrush · 02/10/2018 07:58

Oh dear

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 08:01

Again??
A sign of things to come for them? Wink

borntobequiet · 02/10/2018 08:04

I listened to some Young Conservatives being interviewed yesterday. Their answer to every question was "Theresa May" in weird sing song voices. There's another thread I'm on, I think in Feminism Chat, that recently referenced The Midwich Cuckoos (book)/Village of the Damned (film of book). I thought it would apply equally well to the YCs, but without their malevolent deathly powers perhaps.

1tisILeClerc · 02/10/2018 08:05

I would agree that the 'plan' is bigger than just the UK gov.
There is something a bit 'fishy' about the poisonings, 2+3=4.
'Oh dear the lab door was accidentally left open when the guard went for lunch, and some poison seems to have been stolen'.

Mrsr8 · 02/10/2018 08:05

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

borntobequiet · 02/10/2018 08:05

I mean the aliens' deathly powers, not the YCs. Sorry for any confusion.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 08:11

Meanwhile:
www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/01/uk-manufacturers-jobs-brexit-ihs-markit

The report from the IHS Markit and Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply purchasing managers’ index found the number of employees working at large firms fell for a second successive month in September.
... suggested smaller manufacturing firms kept hiring last month to boost operating capacity, although large companies shed jobs.

Firms suggested the lack of clarity on the UK’s future trading relationship with Europe was a factor.

HesterThrale · 02/10/2018 08:19

Opinion polls all over the place at the moment.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 08:30

Btw I do think that this is the reason why the EU has tried to keep things going.
They dint want a country such as the U.K. in a state if unrest just at their doors.
This is also why they won’t go back in their 4 pillars. Too dangerous and destabilising.
They know it and have a clear idea of geopolitics and the risks involved ( as well as who is finding what - Esp if it has actually made to the newspapers).

It also reminds me of an article linked a (few?) thread away on the the USSR techniques to destabilise a country, one that was running over a generation or two. And how Putin will have kept those when he got in power...
Dangerous times indeed.

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 02/10/2018 08:49

uk.businessinsider.com/half-a-million-nhs-jobs-could-be-slashed-in-plan-by-theresa-may-former-policy-chief-george-freeman-2018-10?r=US&IR=T

More good news
An influential Conservative MP who used to work for Theresa May is pushing plans for nearly one million public sector jobs to be automated by 2030, including nearly 500,000 jobs in the NHS.
George Freeman told a Taxpayers' Alliance fringe at Conservative conference that "automating" the NHS would save £12 billion a year.
The Employment Minister Alok Sharma said jobs would be moved from the public to private sector.

And we are supposed to pay more for all that too....

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 08:50

@frumpety

Men from DFs village were not only there when they strung Mussolini up, but pulled the ropes.

derxa · 02/10/2018 08:51

I wish the farming community would wake up to the fact that they are irrelevant to this Conservative government. I would suggest that we are completely irrelevant to all politicos and the general public. I think we should take a leaf out of the French farmers' book and start spraying some slurry.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 08:55

An influential Conservative MP who used to work for Theresa May is pushing plans for nearly one million public sector jobs to be automated by 2030, including nearly 500,000 jobs in the NHS.

Actually one of the easiest jobs to automate is politician. In fact if they were - like legal decisions - we'd probably end up in a fairer society.

ShinyElena · 02/10/2018 09:06

PCPlum I am just catching up. JDD was a poster on one of the Norths' trade blog, who described themselves as a civil servant. They claimed that for instance the government is preparing for the introduction of rationing. It does nor sound so crazy now as it did months ago.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 09:17

I read a really interesting document kindly provided by Jas about robotics in the care industry DG . Very few of the technologies they were suggesting could be used in the future have actually been developed, biggest single issue appears to be who is going to fund the development.
Automated sounds suspiciously like privatised to my mind.

frumpety · 02/10/2018 09:19

derxa there's been a few grudges settled with slurry in my area Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 09:25

Eating is pretty essential,
but there seems a belief that food grows on the supermarket trees, in a warehouse somewhere

The UK public seems more disconnected than most, about where food comes from and about how animals fit in to our lives, other than as cute fur babies.

DGRossetti · 02/10/2018 09:27

Very few of the technologies they were suggesting could be used in the future have actually been developed

Ignore all the bollocks about "AI". There's no such thing. (and I have my doubts about natural intelligence at times ...)

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 09:29

I'm concerned that the remaining small farms will be driven into bankruptcy after anything but a very soft Brexit, with almost frictionless trade.

That's worries about food security, jobs, the rural economy;
also because reportedly the suicide rate for farmers is already dreadful

derxa · 02/10/2018 09:36

Eating is pretty essential, but there seems a belief that food grows on the supermarket trees, in a warehouse somewhere. That's the nub of it.
The fact is farmers are going out of business because the costs of production are always rising. Plus we are at the mercy of the weather. This year being an extreme example. Do the British public want British produced food or not?

BigChocFrenzy · 02/10/2018 09:37

derxa Why do you think farmers are regarded by the UK govt as so unimportant, compared to say in France or Germany ?
Is it just the fewer numbers ?

In the UK, I mostly lived rurally, apart from when I was attending my 3 unis
In Germany, I've always lived in villages and each one had small family farms around it

I get the impression that Germany and France, maybe most other EU countries, have many more smaller farms, which EU policies try to encourage
whereas the UK has moved towards larger farms, more indiustrialisation of farming & agriculture, in the supposed interests of efficiency / higher profits.

derxa · 02/10/2018 09:38

I'm concerned that the remaining small farms will be driven into bankruptcy after anything but a very soft Brexit, with almost frictionless trade That's happening without Brexit.