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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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borntobequiet · 01/10/2018 21:19

What would happen if the DUP withdrew from their confidence and supply deal with the Tories?

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 21:20

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Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Gumpendorf · 01/10/2018 21:25

Delurking to say thanks for all the info and discussions. Thanks

On the JJPatrick thread, last week he was asking for a direct contact point for Macron. He was clearly v worried about something, and to a casual observer it might have seemed a little drama queenish as he insisted he a message for Macron personally not just his office. Now we know.

DP read the Grayling speech and is finally accepting what I've been saying about the lure of disaster capitalism for the last 2 years.

I don't think we've past the point of no return yet, but Remain are still blind to the dangers and playing the rational game. The Brexiteers are monsters.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:25

The big thing the DUP are needed for is not the brexit stuff but to get the budget through. Hammond moved the budget forward.

This means the DUP would have to remove confidence and supply over Brexit. They also can't hold the government to ransom.

If the DUP did remove supply and confidence we are into a GE, but with things finely balanced still, the DUP would have to make a decision over whether to vote with the Tories or Labour.

The DUP support Corbyn???

I think they'd rather destory themselves by any other way possible than do that.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:31

James Patrick @J_amesp
No Deal does not require legislation, or a vote, or anything else. It’s a neutrally worded note from the government on how they plan to proceed. The fantasy around no deal is dangerous.

It is 'accidental brexit'.

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bellinisurge · 01/10/2018 21:31

@DGRossetti - thank you.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:33

In reference to James Patrick's thread:

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Plausible, but a bit conspiracy theory for my liking. More likely - there is a clique within Government who would like to see this or believe it will happen, but they are not necessarily the ones in charge. That would fit with some things I have heard.

Yes but a clique in government who might force an accidental Brexit, if we are not careful and Remainers are not careful.

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frankiestein401 · 01/10/2018 21:36

like many conspiracy theories it falls on the count of people who would need to be in the know and the likelihood of no leaks.
if anything its a fake news from the russians to stir up the eu.

ClashCityRocker · 01/10/2018 21:36

This is probably a really stupid point but...

Does a deal have to be done on everything now? I can see why the Irish border is a sticking point when it comes to movement of goods and people (and obviously rightly so).

But given that the government have issued these technical notices they are clearly aware of the multitude of side issues (aviation, medicines, euratom, universities.....)

Could someone not have been working on these issues and getting an agreement in place in the last two years? Have they been?

If not what the fuck have they been doing?

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:47

Frankiestein, I do agree with that to a point.

The problem is you don't need a formal plan, just an understanding of how the dynamics are set up to make accidental brexit a real policy.

Also there have effectively been several plans saying this, coming from the disaster capitalist think tanks.

May is keeping certain cards close to her chest. She will know this is a possibility. She might back Ollie Robbins, but she has always played two hands at the same time, just to keep power. It might be one thats out of her hands though.

Remember the talk of parallel leadership, where no one person is properly now in control.

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BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 21:47

imo Tory Remain MPs are the typical weak people we read about in history books who didn't stand up against evil during key periods,
so it triumphs

I'm not expecting them to ride to the rescue
especially since it would probably mean letting their bogeyman, Corbyn, become PM

SwedishEdith · 01/10/2018 21:50

Really, really never know what to make of James Patrick. Of course, if/when everything does go to shit he'll be "I told you all but you wouldn't listen" but he's a bit throw everything and something will end up being true.

Alexander Clarkson Retweeted James Patrick

GIGN is the Gendarmerie special response and intelligence gathering unit. It would not be involved in Brexit contingency planning in the first place. That would be left to the operational planning unit in the Gendarmerie's DOE. If key details are off worth treating with care

James Patrick
@J_amesp

The British are aware that contingency planning in France has not yet reached operational unit level even in the GIGN because the general French presumption is that the British government is genuinely engaged in good faith, which they are not.

Williamson 🎖 High Tory 🇬🇧
@PoliticalDec

Replying to @APHClarkson
You're conversing with the Craig Murray of Brexit 😅

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 21:51

I suppose with any luck the bigger EU companies will have been planning to leave the UK for 2 years. I can't really believe that the EU won't have been aware of the possibilities of something like JJPatrick's theory as the UK has been arsing around from day one and if Russia is involved 'behind' the plan, the Eastern Europeans would have constructive thoughts.
I did entertain myself for a while reading the comments on the Mailonline about Mr Junker saying that planes might not fly and per quarantine. Apart from the obvious 'lobotomy down the pub' standard of comments it would seem to be no clue what is coming.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 21:56

That plan may be May's fallback, because she seems genuinely desperate to get Chequers accepted
and that would be understandable if she were forced by the Ultras to have this wrecking as a fallback - maybe as part of the deal for letting her be elected leader in 2016

It doesn't actually need many people in the loop,
just the responsible minister plus a team of 20-30 civil servants

and now it had leaked ... if Pattick is correct.

I still suspect it may be just disinformation to help convince the EU that the UK govt is too dangerous to allow a no deal and hence force EU concessions

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 22:00

Important that there does not need to be a vote or a govt statement about no deal for this to happen:

no deal cliff edge is the automatic A50 default unless otherwise specified in a Withdrawal Agreement

woman11017 · 01/10/2018 22:04

I believe Patrick is a public service worker in the traditional sense. That's why he's making those podcasts with a soldier with disaster zone experience advising on getting through the first few weeks of this.
Because no other government dep or LA is.

He's not posh, and which sadly sometimes affects perceptions here. David Allen Green is surprisingly not posh too! Smile

I agree on the remain campaigners being all over the place. It's a real open goal for no dealers.

The shock of what is about to happen will be too much for many to withstand. That's why Patrick's posting about it now.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 22:07

BigChoc, I seriously hope you are right!

You've been more pessimist than me generally, but I think I'm definitely on a bit of a downer at the moment.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/01/julie-girling-pro-remain-tory-mep-brexit
I hadn't realised they had expelled two remain tory MEPs

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woman11017 · 01/10/2018 22:14

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Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 22:21

imo, much of the Tories wild aggression and naked lack of scruples is because many think this is their last chance

... last chance to fix things in the way they want for a generation, like MrsT did,
before they are swept away by voter demographics and discontent with living standards

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/01/theresa-may-voters-tory-policies-labour

“We are a dead party,” says Nick Denys, a councillor from Hillingdon and head of policy for the Tory Workers group, whose other members include Ruth Davidson and Robert Halfon.
“Even our membership is literally dying.
What do we have to offer families of working age?”

Motheroffourdragons · 01/10/2018 22:26

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

jasjas1973 · 01/10/2018 22:28

If Brexit goes wrong, they ll get the blame and be out of office for a decade or more, Corbyn is getting on, may well not be leader come 2022.

In which time we could be back in the EU, though more likely EFTA.

Buteo · 01/10/2018 22:35

YouGov survey:

3643 GB adults were questioned on 1 Oct 2018. Results are weighted to be representative of the GB population.

Thinking about the current position in the Brexit negotiations, do you think...

Neither side will compromise enough for an agreement and Britain will end up without a deal ... 34%

Britain will end up compromising to agree a deal closer to the EU proposals ... 23%

Both sides will end up making compromises to agree a deal in the middle ... 15%

The EU will end up compromising to agree a deal closer to the British proposals ... 5%

Don't know ... 23%

Lico · 01/10/2018 22:38

De lurking:
To be quite honest, there might something in this Patrick theory.
It would not be the first time that some evil individuals planned this kind of treachery. For instance, De Gaulle had a problem with UK joining the Common Market? Why?
Because the U.S. together with the UK had planned to make France a protectorate, French Dollars had already been printed in the US and had circulated in Normandy until De Gaulle chucked the U.S. out.
Both US and UK were then very keen to annex the French Colonies for its raw materials.
As for the liberation of France, the Allies (UK and US) had no intention of liberating France- the plan on D Day was to shift East and destroy The Ruhr. De Gaulle made sure that the plan did not work. Peregrina is righ, Dunkirk is considered betrayal by the French (see New York times).
Macron is a fervent Gaullist so will know his history!!

mondediplo.com/2003/05/05lacroix

www.nytimes.com/1964/09/06/archives/why-the-french-mistrust-us-a-frenchman-reviews-the-state-of.html

changehere · 01/10/2018 23:08

British govt is considering regulatory checks between GB and NI. Is this the start of backsliding?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45711991

maizieD · 01/10/2018 23:34

Delurking too.

I came on here to see what you lot think of James Patrick's theory because it's scared the hell out of me.

The one thing none of you are mentioning are the Henry VIII powers that Parliament idiotically allowed in the Withdrawal Act. There was no limitation on them The Executive can do exactly what it wants. The minute there's any civil unrest after Brexit the army will be straight out on the streets. Curfews, censorship, suspension of fixed term parliaments? The world is their oyster.

The other scary thing is that everything that's been done, or not done, since May took over fits Patrick's thesis, as RTB said earlier in this thread.