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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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Thread gallery
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1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 18:26

{So the Rees-Mogg plan for getting away from UKIP - is to go on a nationwide tour with Farage? }
Maybe they are going to do a 'Benny Hill' type sketch, running around?
Actually like Stattler and Waldorf in the Muppets where they contradict their own viewpoint.

UnnecessaryFennel · 01/10/2018 19:05

James Patrick

@J_amesp

In a short while I’m going to do something I would never normally dream of doing and share a sanitised intelligence briefing on Brexit. After that, I’m pretty much done besides creative projects and everyone gets what they deserve

I've been following James Patrick for a while now - he is getting more and more despondent and angry.

I'll be waiting for this tweet later, but not looking forward to it.

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 19:34

You have to wonder what planet Grayling is on. He is, of course, trying to channel the Dunkirk spirit. Leavers don't like me reminding them that the French regarded Dunkirk as a betrayal, but obviously bringing most of the personnel of an Army back, even though we lost our equipment, was an achievement.

I was glad I'd paid for my Monarch flights by credit card, so I got my money back with no problems. But, once bitten, twice shy, and I am not risking buying any flights post 29th March next year, until the agreements are signed and the ink has dried. None of this, 'oh it will be alright' for me.

jasjas1973 · 01/10/2018 19:55

He thinks he is Winnie and Monarch was his Dunkirk moment.... film coming soon

Mightybanhammer · 01/10/2018 20:02

I wondered if James Patrick is JDD of the RNorth blog? But he looks to be a younger man. - JDD mentioned he had come out of retirement to become an advisor and mentioned telecoms ventures he had been involved with in the 80's. Anyone else have a view?

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 20:07

This is what James Patrick days his sources have told him ShockShockShock
A horrible plan if true, but are the Tories clever enough ?

If true, it is deliberate war, just using Brexit instead of bombs - it would destroy relations with the EU for 1-2 generations
In fact, the aim is to destroy the EU Angry

https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamesp/status/1046828583484821504?s=200_

The Uk govt have been planning for no-deal all along.

The British government aims to prevent France and other EU countries from properly preparing for no deal by continuing to falsely engage in the negotiations in bad faith,

keeping the EU27 from moving from early stage plans to contingency measures as long as possible.

Intend to deliberately cause as much disruption to EU (esp France) as possible.
Create a Europe in chaos narrative.

The Uk will invoke emergency powers on 29 Jan.

Plan all long was for UK to be tax haven on Europe's doorstep.
They arranged emergency supplies of food etc from USA.

The British government hopes this collateral damage will add to planned disruption around the EU election processes next spring
and they will use dissident relationships to further this - likely to include Orban.

The British are aware that contingency planning in France has not yet reached operational unit level even in the GIGN because the general French presumption is that the British government is genuinely engaged in good faith, which they are not.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 20:12

However, Hammond at least doesn't seem to be in on that plan, if it exists:
One small part of the alleged plan is to make the EU impose controls on the NI border, but Hammond says the Uk will also have to:

https://www.politico.eu/article/philip-hammond-brexit-ireland-uk-will-enforce-hard-border-in-ireland-if-there-is-no-brexit-deal/amp/?twitterr_impression=true

Britain would have to enforce border controls on the Irish border if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a deal, Chancellor Philip Hammond said today.
In remarks which appear to undermine the official government position that the U.K. will do all it can to avoid border checks after Brexit,
Hammond said that under World Trade Organization rules, London would have no choice but to reinstate checks.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 20:19

Imo, if that plan exists, it certainly doesn't involve the whole cabinet - they can't agree on anything.

It might be that May has allowed DD and then Raab to organise it as an emergency fallback, if her Chequers plan doesn't work
The civil service has the knowledge to carry out this plan, but some of them have allegedly leaked to Patrick

However, being a tax haven won't supply enough money to replace what the economy will lose from industry, far,ing, pharma etc
It would certainly be a scorched earth policy - if the EU won't save us from our own stupidity, then we will try to take them down with us.
Boris had it wrong about who is wearing the suicide vest - it's the Ultras

But is that plan just an Ultra's wet dream - maybe even to try to scare the EU into concessions - or is it genuine ?

red: what do you think - anyone else ?

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 20:27

ban No, I'm very sure he's not JDD.

However, JDD some months ago was talking very wildly about a possible military coup - RNorth deleted his comments very quickly, for whatever reason
JDD has always referred to post-Brexit as being apocalyptic and horrifying, but also of total govt ignorance & stupidity.
So if there is an evil plan, it probably won't go well

Thomasinaa · 01/10/2018 20:27

What advantage would come (and to whom) from deliberately harming the EU? Who is behind it?

UnnecessaryFennel · 01/10/2018 20:29

The James Patrick thread is terrifying but I can't believe it is an actual Cabinet 'plan' - if only because they are clearly all so fucking incompetent.

I genuinely believe that no deal has been the plan for a long time now - disaster capitalism is so tempting, after all - but this is a blueprint for war in Europe, and that seems several steps too far.

Then again, I wake up every morning newly baffled and horrified by the news, so... perhaps we are just being gradually desensitised.

Thomasinaa · 01/10/2018 20:30

I don't get the massive escalation. Unless, possibly, leading conservatives have been bribed by Russians or possibly by American extremists.

Hazardswan · 01/10/2018 20:31

I read through the thread 5 times questioning it....

Similar to you choc i don't believe the full cabinet would be in on it if it were 100% true. At the same time this is totally something I could see Britian do esp with a Tory gov. We are bastards historically. Various tories look bitter enough to have an attitude of if I'm going down I'm taking you with me.

PCPlumsTruncheon · 01/10/2018 20:40

Who/what is JDD?

YeOldeTrout · 01/10/2018 20:44

Listening to coverage of Tory party conf yesterday... I put odds of 'No deal' brexit at 90%. In reality, 'No deal' will involve a load of (?) temporary agreements so the planes can keep flying & the container ships keep sailing, medicines moving, etc. Some kind of BINO in Norn. But out of customs so JIT manufacturing is going to have to heavily change or go into chaos.

I am not sure about the £40 bln we said we'd pay EU; will we still pay that if 'No Deal'?

Check out these odds from the bookies, tonite!! Odds on (?I think!) for another referendum & a different PM before 1.4.19.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 20:51

Trout Part of the exit fee was for the transition period.
Without that, the bill would be about €30 billion

Govt ministers, including iirc Raab, have said the UK will pay that bill.
In the event of a no deal, the govt might delay, but would likely be sued if it just says it's not paying.

Also, the EU would demand payment before starting any trade negotiations.
Until then, UK exports might even be deliberately blocked, which would be much worse even than WTO rules

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 20:55

Boris had it wrong about who is wearing the suicide vest - it's the Ultras

Politics in the Trumpian Era is all about accusing your political opponent of what you yourself are guilty of. It's something that Hitler subscribed to, referring to it as a k'the big lie'. And that's what this particular propaganda technique is generally known as now.

Joseph Goebbels made a particular reference to how the British establishment employed it, and I think the quote in the context of 2018 perhaps needs reflecting on.
The essential English leadership secret does not depend on particular intelligence. Rather, it depends on a remarkably stupid thick-headedness. The English follow the principle that when one lies, one should lie big, and stick to it. They keep up their lies, even at the risk of looking ridiculous.

The Tory Party has been split over Europe for decades. I could well see some taking the line that since they can not resolve matters internally they should force Europe to bend to the benefit of the Tory Party. After all this particular bunch are exceptionally Machiavellian even by their own standards.

James Patrick writes a lot of stuff which naturally flows on from what my old lecturer was writing about in the late 1990s about the next big war being characterised as information and propaganda war, perhaps with hybrid elements of traditional warfare. (Think NI and Bosnia for where that might happen).

The trajectory we are on, is increasingly like the US - the US are headed for an explosive civil unrest situation. Personally I think the US situation is now locked in. I don't yet think we are locked into to our fate but we are close to it. I don't think a lot of the remain camp realise, and this is where my reservations over the approach its taken creep in. They lack the capacity to comprehend just how far some of these Brexiters will push it. There is still the sense that everything will turn out OK.

I don't necessarily believe this. This is why I am mentally struggling with it all. I am also acutely aware that my get out of jail free card to the EU is time limited because of the politics of enemies and even if we did go, things could turn nasty if the British, Americans and Russians turn the heat up on propaganda.

Forgive me on this next bit because my memory is hazy and this is something lurking at the back of my consciousness. Last month I have a vague recollection of a Huge amount of money going into national security to do with online content and fake news. It was a staggering amount that got my attention but annoying I wasn't paying more attention.

I'm not sure if it relates to this or is a separate thing
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/23/new-national-security-unit-will-tackle-spread-of-fake-news-in-uk

But the amount was such that I thought it constant with severe military grade threat.

If James Patrick is correct, then you'd expect May to be starting to prepare the public psychologically. Which is what she's doing to the letter.

Indeed I am trying desperately to make a counter argument that makes sense. It makes sense of everytime the Brexiters ignored rational. Even what Tusk said in October 2016 and the former Polish finance minister said in 2016 fits with it.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 20:56

The long and short of it?

Not seen a better explanation for the government's behaviour over the last two years. Have you?

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prettybird · 01/10/2018 20:56

Doesn't part of the "bill" include pension payments for MEPs? Wink

not all pensions need to be paid, especially for MEPs who never did any work but drew maximum expenses Grin

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 20:59

I don't get the massive escalation. Unless, possibly, leading conservatives have been bribed by Russians or possibly by American extremists.

This lot don't need bribing. They have their assets off shore and just want to cash in and become the merchants of the empire era. They are happy to share with other oligarchs if they get their cut of the prize.

The cake is for a certain establishment class. Not for ordinary people.

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borntobequiet · 01/10/2018 21:00

Paddy Power odds last week on 2018 election 9/1, now 9/4.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:01

Farage will get his pension payoff either way. In fact he probably will get more from no deal.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:03

The Tory Party Remainers and soft leavers have to see, recognise and believe that the risk of a Corbyn government is less than an all out tax haven armaggeddon Brexit.

I'm not convinced they will ever get to realise the extent of the danger nor be able to get past Corbyn even if they do.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:06

Plus a GE won't necessarily change anything at all. It could strengthen the Tories. My suspicion is that lots of the left will be disillusioned and dispirited and simply won't turn out meaning the Tories do better than expected.

In good news, DH randomly said, oh we should get a pile of baked beans in.

His head won't accept it and what else is coming out his mouth is not consistent with other comments he making.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 21:11

Faisal islam @ faisalislam
DUP “pushing back hard” against new backstop compromise ideas floated by UK Government, says ministerial source. Various “hybrid models” of UK-wide customs alignment and NI regulatory alignment with EU around that will create new regulatory checks partic on food/agriculture 1/5

DUP’s Foster and MPs have arrived at CPC18, sources playing down the notion that there are formal negotiations on this now, but others say clarification sought on Bloomberg story about new UK backstop proposal

EU27 and Team Barnier expect a new backstop proposal before the Brussels Summit in a fortnight and “substantial progress” on the backstop issue. November’s special Brexit summit depends on it - so understandable that things are being discussed now 3/5

Don't know where parts 4 and 5 are. DUP will be hung out to dry however this drops.

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