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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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GhostofFrankGrimes · 01/10/2018 15:45

I've always lived by the mantra 'never trust a Tory'. Don't see why Gove should be any different.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-michael-gove-live-animal-exports-ban-restrictions-eu-slaughter-a8534051.html

borntobequiet · 01/10/2018 15:52

There was quite a funny sort of interview with Michael Gove on the Today programme, from the bits I caught he was in a lift with Mishal Husain and trying very hard not to be interviewed. Unless it was a waking dream, I'm not up to much first thing.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 15:57

“I think there’s lots of failures of propaganda really that we have allowed Brexit to be about immigration or putting up barriers or not liking going on holiday in Europe. It’s none of that. It’s about who runs your government, do you or somebody else,” he said.

The problem is, for a lot of UK voters, you can't tell the difference.

Given the relation between my votes and the shower of shits I got in return, I may as well have voted for someone in France or Germany.

derxa · 01/10/2018 16:00

I've always lived by the mantra 'never trust a Tory'. Don't see why Gove should be any different.

I'd rather trust someone who makes it their business to understand their brief. I hated Andrea 'butterflies' Leadsom.

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 16:13

{Theresa May promises to stop restaurants deducting from workers' tips}
I am not suggesting this a bad idea but I think, looking at the state of the UK economy and the massive upheaval that is 6 months away, that Mrs May ought to be looking at something a little more important.
Forcing through legislation so that workers were being paid properly would actually be a start of course.

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 16:30

The focus on the issue of tipping, service charges and salaries has been ongoing since 2009 when the Independent newspaper named a number of companies that were using service charges to meet minimum wage obligations.
In July 2009 the then business secretary John Hutton announced plans to amend the law and a consultation on it all .. The point is tips and restaurants has been in issue for at least 9 years. Surely if you’re trying to do a ‘Look a squirrel’ there are better Topics ( see what I did there?)

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 16:31

Theresa May promises to stop restaurants deducting from workers' tips

Just restaurants ?

DS works in a casino, and some punters can drop a £5,000 tip without blinking. (Apparently it takes a while to count £500,000 even in £50 notes).

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 16:32

Thing is, tips aren't income, so should they be taxed ?

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 16:49

We only have to see from these threads that some Leavers say, "it wasn't about immigration", only to be contradicted by another Leaver some posts later, saying "it's about immigrants taking our jobs, our school places, stopping us getting GP appointments." If JRM didn't think it was about immigration, why has he waited until now to say so? If it's about who runs our Government, how does he feel about Theresa May saying that we never lost Sovereignty? One moment he appears to be saying we are a vassal state, and the next, that we will become one. Which is it? As an aside, what did the expensive educations of these Tories teach them - they seem so woefully ignorant.

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 16:50

Re Tips, I believe that HMRCs stance was that if there was an expectation of a regular amount from tips, then they could be counted as such.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 16:57

Re Tips, I believe that HMRCs stance was that if there was an expectation of a regular amount from tips, then they could be counted as such.

I'm nasty enough to suggest that HMRCs stance may not be what the law says. There's also the added complication of non-monetary tips - such as a bottle of wine, which might see Muslim employees rather pissed off at having to pay tax on a tip they couldn't partake of.

One day, I might start a consultancy suggesting interesting edge cases to lawyers for a fee.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 17:04

Michael Gove at the Conservative Party conference. Discussing farming, fishing and the environment. I'm convinced. No one else discusses our concerns. I hate Gove but.. Am I on the wrong thread?

Gove looks good as a minister in 2018.

These things, however, are relative and the competition at the moment isn't up to much.

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DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 17:08

Remind me again, why the Tories are considered the party of fiscal responsibility ?

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-latest-cuts-miscalculation-billions-public-sector-pension-costs-a8562491.html

The NHS will suffer cuts worth £2.7bn after the government miscalculated the pension costs of public sector workers, new analysis by the House of Commons library has shown.

The research suggested that government underestimated the costs by as much as £4bn a year.

(contd).

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 17:26

Didn't I see something about Gove taking a great interest in USA farming a few days back, and making comments which would contradict his apparent plan to keep standards high?

prettybird · 01/10/2018 17:29

I remember 30+ years ago, when I was still a student, getting tax codes from HMRC that included an assumption of quite a high level of tips Hmm.

Had to contact them to say that
a) I only worked as a waitress in the summer holidays (St Andrews, so had a job at the Rusacks Marine, a 4 star hotel so admittedly a good location for tipping - although not as good as many might have thought as all the Americans on golf tours thought that their tips were already included/paid them to the hotel),
b) that you only got a share of the hotel tips (as opposed to the restaurant tips) if you were still on the books at the end of September (and I never was Sad as I would use September to go around Europe on an Interail pass) and then
c) I'd stopped working as a waitress anyway as I had now graduated Confused

The only year it would have actually made a difference was the year I graduated as up until then, I earned nowhere near the threshold to pay income tax - but it was a pain having to contact them each year.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 17:31

BBC politics @bbcpolitics
Boris Johnson has been snapped running through fields near his home. But was he also attempting to "troll" the PM, who famously said her naughtiest moment was running through fields of wheat as a child?🤔

Wtf is he wearing?

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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FishesaPlenty · 01/10/2018 17:32

I'm nasty enough to suggest that HMRCs stance may not be what the law says.

www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/1/section/62

“earnings”, in relation to an employment, means—

(a)any salary, wages or fee,

(b)any gratuity or other profit or incidental benefit of any kind obtained by the employee if it is money or money’s worth, or

(c)anything else that constitutes an emolument of the employment.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 17:34

Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsMEN
Because they’re children

Love this!!!!

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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Hazardswan · 01/10/2018 17:46

🐟 👴

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 17:56

Dawn Foster @dawnhfoster
Michael Fabricant just knocked over and broke an outdoor pub divider while carrying some drinks #CPC18

Is it just me, or does the Tory Party Conference remind you of a really, really bad wedding?

One that was organised by a particularly annoying tosser on don't tell the bride who has pissed most of the budget on the stag do.

First he forgets the invites, and doesn't invite all the brides best friends and family.

Then he has to beg his soon to be mother in law for money to bail him out to buy 4 bridesmaids dresses after he bought some off ebay for £5 and they turned out to be dodgy underwear and all the bridesmaids pitched an absolute fit when they see them.

On the day, the bride is expecting a make up artist. Instead she gets an old lady his nan recommended and ends up looking like something out of a 70s disco horror movie.

Now in tears she waits for the car to turn up. But he's forgotten this, so it's a mad right around to his mates who turn up in their wheels complete with lowered suspension.

They turn up at the festival site which out of season is a mud field rather than field of wheat. The low suspension cars get stuck and his mates force the bride out to push with inevitable consequences.

She eventually gets to the venue only to find its full of all his freeloading mates and his extended family who she's never met.

She feels she has no choice and still goes through with it.

The after dinner speeches are cringe worthy and her FIL cracks lots loads of racist jokes and upsets her foreign family members who have been forced to watch via video link.

Everyone spends the entire reception shouting abuse at each other before the fights break out.

The bride by now, crying her eyes out and saying she would be asking for a divorce but for the fact she has two kids with this guy and she's held hostage by circumstances.

Then her best mate then drops the bombshell the bride is pregnant again. Groom issues grovelling apology.

To which the best man flips out, and claims its his and he wants soul custody.

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RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 17:57

And everyone goes "why is she so upset? Ungrateful cow. He got the dress right"

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ShinyElena · 01/10/2018 17:58

Michael Deacon Retweeted
Ciaran Jenkins @C4Ciaran 30 Sep
Bit of a gift to sketch writers at the Tory conference where there is literally a barrier to opportunity. (Photo:@Labour4EU)

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 18:06

Tom Peck @ tompeck
So Chris Grayling has just gone on a lengthy ramble about how inspiring it was when everyone pulled together to save stranded passengers after Monarch went bust, before adding: "And that, my friends, is what will happen after Brexit."

Grayling campaigned for Brexit, voted for Brexit, and now, on stage at Tory Confernce, has likened it to an airline going bust and having to have its passengers repatriated as a matter of emergency.

I'm not making this up. The collapse of an airline is an inspiration for Brexit.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
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1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 18:15

Um.
Most of the airlines aren't British.
Several of the bus and train operators are not British.
I thought the plan was that the UK would be far better off outside the EU.
Permission to be confused please!

Havanananana · 01/10/2018 18:19

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the darling of the Tory grassroots, has said Brexiters must “get away” from the “Ukip-isation” of Brexit in order to win back the votes of young people.

Leave Means Leave plans to hold a string of rallies around the country in the coming weeks, including on on Saturday in Torquay where Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg will share a stage and organisers hope almost 2,000 people will attend.

So the Rees-Mogg plan for getting away from UKIP - is to go on a nationwide tour with Farage? Confused