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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
70
RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 09:55

James Felton @JimMFelton
Tory Government:
“You need to pay us more respect”

Also Tory Government:
“You are like fucking Stalin”

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 09:59

When it comes to suing the UK, how will the queues form ?

I did think alphabetically. But that puts Japan ahead of the US, unless the US becomes "America" for a day ?

Maybe first come first served is fairer ?

Or in order of amount claimed ?

Not really sure why I'm wondering. With all the gagging clauses shoved into the various bills, I suspect a lot of legal actions will simply be super-injunctioned out of existence. Like they never happened. Which means the public accounts will need to be maed "hygienic", in case some sharp-eyed reporter spots the shortfall.

prettybird · 01/10/2018 10:00

The mention of the South Sea bubble and Tulip Mania by Peregrina made me think of the Darien venture.

Some historians think that it led directly to the Scottish lords "selling" Scotland's sovereignty to England for 30 pieces of silver. Hmm

One of the reasons Scotland bankrupted itself over Darien was that it was trying to find an alternative route to the Pacific in the face of protectionism from England.

It's not a flattering story (for either country, nor neighbouring countries), but it did make me ponder whether history Wikipedia will look on the Brexit "scheme" with equal opprobrium.

"Darien scheme" on @Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme?wprov=sfii1

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 10:01

He also told @skynewssarah that people ‘would have to pay a little bit more’ to help fund aging population

Errr that's a shame because you see the tax receipts from the young immigrants we are kicking out was on track to fund the ageing population. Not to mention caring for them too.

BigChocFrenzy · 01/10/2018 10:22

Until this Brexshit, such disloyalty would have meant expulsion from the Tory party, or indeed from any party:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-conference-latest-conor-burns-boris-johnson-beleave-darren-grimes-challenge-sarah-a8562336.html

Conservative Brexit divisions have been laid bare once more as an ally of Boris Johnson publicly called for a Eurosceptic campaigner to challenge a pro-EU MP. [- Sarah Wollaston]
< is he just expressing Boris's wish ? >

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 10:26

{Even if the UK gets all these wonderful trade deals - doesn’t there need to be demand in those countries and don’t we actually need to produce the right stuff to sell to them? And if demand already exists, why aren’t we already selling stuff?}
Oh Buteo, don't spoil it for the poor deluded souls. Don't forget we will have magic unicorns to provide endless resources of minerals and energy that are FREE to the UK only, so we can make and sell stuff for vast profits. You only have to BELIEVE in Brexit like Mrs May.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 10:36

I suspect the UK is going to find that like jobs, trade deals are much easier to come by when you already have some.

SusanWalker · 01/10/2018 10:40

Is anyone watching Raabs speech? My blood pressure is going through the roof. Apparently the government technical notices about aviation are lies dreamt up by the elite trying to stop brexit. Who knew?

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 10:42

files.heraldscotland.com/news/16951490.scots-battle-to-win-mps-right-to-halt-brexit-likely-to-succeed/

A dramatic legal bid to win the UK Parliament a right to revoke Article 50 which is due to be heard by the highest court in Europe is likely to succeed - raising the prospect of Brexit being halted before March next year, one of the nation’s leading experts on EU law insists.

(contd)

SusanWalker · 01/10/2018 10:42

He's contradicting himself every other sentence. The cheating on the vote leave campaign is dismissed as the tough edges of democracy in one breath, then he declares vote leave won fair and square.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 10:45

For every unicorn story, we can match 10 like these .... (notice Camerons old wanking ground)

www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/16909533.brexit-exodus-of-eu-nurses-leaves-oxford-hospitals-with-severe-staff-shortage

AN EXODUS of nurses heading back to their European homeland after Britain’s decision to quit the EU has left Oxfordshire’s hospitals with an ‘extreme shortage’ of staff.

Chief executive of Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Bruno Holthof, highlighted the dire situation at the trust’s annual public meeting this week.

(contd)

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 11:05

Since there is only 1 'Sovereign' in the UK, please could she summon these traitors to the tower for a short discussion, followed by an appointment down the corridor with a man holding an axe?
We are all mere subjects and we are being subjected to insanity at the hands of this government.

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 11:30

(notice Camerons old wanking ground)

I am not sure this is a technically correct use of the term.( The porcine element makes a difference you see.)

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 11:36

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/northern-ireland-voters-fear-may-will-betray-them-8vkwmhrzk

Voters in Northern Ireland believe that Theresa May will betray them over Brexit, a Times poll has found.

Sixty per cent said they believed that the prime minister would not honour her promise to keep Northern Ireland exactly the same as the rest of the United Kingdom, with no border in the Irish Sea, according to the poll by LucidTalk.

A further 26 per cent “have their doubts” that Mrs May would keep her promise. Only 12 per cent expressed full trust in her.

(contd)

How strong is DUP support then ?

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 11:47

Meanwhile, (literally) in other news ...

  1. So, that Brexit - how's it going for cheaper housing ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45641216

Tenants living in shared houses in England could face eviction or increases in rent because of changes to government rules, the National Landlords Association (NLA) has warned.

From Monday an extra 160,000 houses of multiple occupancy (HMOs) have to be registered with local councils, almost triple the current figure.

(contd)

  1. If food looks like it's getting more expensive, it's only because you've really been getting it too cheap, and nothing to do with Brexit Hmm

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45559594

Many Britons feel they have to watch the pennies after recent inflation rises and years of flatlining wages.

This extends to their supermarket shop, with four in 10 people reporting they are concerned about the cost of food.

Against this backdrop, grocery giant Tesco has joined the discount retailers, which the launch of "value-orientated" chain Jack's.

Yet in relative terms, the British grocery shop remains one of the cheapest in the world.

(contd)

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 11:58

Food is noticeably a bit more expensive in Europe.

prettybird · 01/10/2018 11:58

IDS on Sky News saying "the border in NI should not be allowed to stop these two great trading blocs trading properly on a free trade arrangement" Confused.....and then goes on to blame Varadkar for being responsible for the problem Hmm, followed by a not so veiled threat towards Ireland. Angry

Confused
Peregrina · 01/10/2018 12:07

I think people would be happier to pay a little more, if it was guaranteed to go to the health service. But this rather contradicts the £350 million bonus that we were expecting. Will Leavers put two and two together and ask why we are paying more, and not less, but see the health service struggle further?

Motheroffourdragons · 01/10/2018 12:10

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

jasjas1973 · 01/10/2018 12:20

Perhaps people on here might but there is a significant minority who do not have any extra money.

The CPI rate the Government obviously prefers, as it doesn't inc housing costs, maybe slightly lower than wage rises but the RPI is much higher and a truer reflection of the costs people face.

Hammond thinks they'll be a Deal Dividend once Chequers is agreed with the EU.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 12:22

but eating out is much much cheaper, and the quality and choice is far better than the big chains in the UK.

We only ever go out to eat if it's for convenience to meet up with friends because we can always do a lot better at home (for a fraction of the price).

We're both sure it didn't use to be this way.

Maybe we're a little more picky because to go anywhere - especially anywhere new is a mini military campaign of checking accessibility, so the effort involved is that much more.

By contrast, our honeymoon in Spain was along a beach of completely accessible (by law) premises with really good, well priced food.

(To be fair there is one non-chain restaurant in Brum city centre. Unfortunately it's 600 metres from the nearest car parking, and the as-good-as-cobbled-streets are wheelchair kryptonite.)

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 12:33

{Hammond thinks they'll be a Deal Dividend once Chequers is agreed with the EU.}
If he has cash under the mattress then why wasn't he spending it on the NHS and transport and loads of other things that they COULD have been doing.
Running out on the EU without paying the bill will be a silly move because I have a suspicion the UK might actually need the EU more than it is making out. And that is before the Japanese and Americans pile in with law suits about deals and arrangements that have been cancelled.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 12:41

If a deal is now struck, I think we could potentially see a bounce in the economy. A lot of the bigger problems relate to the fear of no deal at this point. If we have a deal, then people can start planning again.

Its stuff like people taking money out of shares because they are scared of a stock market crash and are looking for alternative places to keep their money or invest their money.

I don't think I'd call it a deal dividend as that implies that we'll be better off than we were pre-2016. But I can see from a political point of view Hammond might want to label it in that way.

No Deal means you plan for the worst. If you have a deal, you know the score and have a theorectical bottom to economic damage, whereas no deal really is bottomless in its uncertainity.

OP posts:
borntobequiet · 01/10/2018 13:15

On eating out - the town I work in is undergoing considerable improvement in a particular "historic" area and much of this seems to involve opening huge numbers of chain eateries cheek by jowl all vying with one another for custom. I can't see how this is a good idea under any circumstances, let alone with a potential recession on the cards. The other attractions are a shopping mall and a cinema - that's it. I find it depressing.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 13:37

On eating out - the town I work in is undergoing considerable improvement in a particular "historic" area and much of this seems to involve opening huge numbers of chain eateries cheek by jowl all vying with one another for custom.

And they must all be cook-by-numbers (thanks Berni Inns) - there's no way there's that amount of trained chefs in the UK. Hence you get lukewarm soup (to be replaced with ... lukewarm soup); meals that are suspiciously cool to cold in the middle (to be replaced with ... have a guess ?).

To be fair the desserts are nice are harder to fuck up. The problem is generally, we don't do desserts.

I have to say, on the price/quality/repeatability indices, McDonalds is the clear winner. Especially since they've introduced the build-your-burger terminals (which removes the need for the staff to understand English).