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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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missclimpson · 01/10/2018 07:51

The people who trot out the "we won the war for them" bollocks seem to be utterly clueless about the actual history of WW2. I blame re-enactment and all the superficial TV programmes.

Parker231 · 01/10/2018 08:01

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-45700833

Looking more like a no deal than ever. One of the problems is the the UK seems to think it should get special treatment from the EU - why should they? We’re leaving not them.

prettybird · 01/10/2018 08:13

"Many businesses are , frankly , sitting on their hands " (said Hammond, when interviewed on BBC Breakfast and talking about the hit the economy has taken.

So it's the businesses fault too? ConfusedHmm Nowt to do with the Government. After all, it's just following the Will of the People Hmm even if it no longer is

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 08:14

Tom Larkin @tomlarkinsky
Brutal from Philip Hammond, keeping up the attack on Boris Johnson: "He's a big personality. The process of government is the process of attention to detail, follow-through, lots of hard work. It isn't just about flamboyant statements and big announcements."

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Peregrina · 01/10/2018 08:14

I can't help but feel that even if the 75% of MPs who were against Brexit were now to rouse themselves, the forces propelling the UK out, are now unstoppable. The EU will be blamed.

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 08:22

I agree Peregrina.Its like someone said threads ago- it's just an unstoppable ball plummeting down hill.

It makes me so mad that 48% of us- millions have been completely ignored.

Even down to the symbol of a multi million festival to stick fingers up at us all. Surely a celebration of our EU neighbours would have been a more tactful festival?

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 08:24

"Many businesses are , frankly, sitting on their hands "

So what do they do? Incur the expense of preparing to leave, or hoping for a deal which enables them to continue? Is BMW bringing its shut down early, sitting on its hands? Or the Road Haulage Assoc, desperately asking for meetings "sitting on their hands".

Motheroffourdragons · 01/10/2018 08:24

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

HesterThrale · 01/10/2018 08:36

Approx 20% of Tory MPs are women.
Approx 3/4 of Tory MPs publicly supporting a People's Vote are women.

(*Soubry, Wollaston, Greening, Allen, Sandbach? I can't find definitive data on this but this seems about the size of it. Is Philip Lee the only male Tory who's come out in support? Grieve???)

Small sample I know, but interesting stat. And brave people. We need more to join them.
They're probably getting a lot of abuse and I believe Arron Banks is targeting them.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-final-say-conservative-mps-dominic-grieve-eu-vote-a8561691.html%3famp

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 08:41

Quite a thoughtful piece by Julie Girling MEP

I can't help but think there must be many Tories who think like her. ( Though I admit, I do find it difficult to understand the Tory mindset.)

SusanWalker · 01/10/2018 08:48

Conversation
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
@business
Think you can do better than Theresa May at the Tory conference? Play this game to plot the Brexit of your choice (link: bloom.bg/2NdWK0B) bloom.bg/2NdWK0B

I just managed to get us to a second referendum on this game.

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 08:48

I suppose Hammonds comment that the UK can 'afford' a 'no deal' is a good start.
I do suspect the UK may then feel that it has been turfed out of the warm nightclub and is now sat in the road in the rain in it's pants.
I can only presume the Tories are on a suicide mission. JRM insulting one of the few countries where a possible trade deal or two has been penciled in (Africa), outright lying to all and sundry, May demanding the EU tell her stuff that they have been saying for 2 years, antagonising Russia, the list goes on.

HesterThrale · 01/10/2018 09:10

Watched the Galsworthy/Oulds debate (while part laughing, part shouting, part crying) and I thought, this Brexiteer doesn't seem very wise. Then I wondered, are Brexiteers made up of those who've been conned and those doing the conning? Because there really doesn't seem any sense in it, backed up by evidence, logic and facts...

m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=174364656788527&id=642444842524195&refsrc=https%3A%2F%2Fm.facebook.com%2Fscientistsforeu%2Fvideos%2F174364656788527%2F&_rdr

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 09:14

I suppose Hammonds comment that the UK can 'afford' a 'no deal'

And why doesn't this trigger any nagging doubts in a JAM leaver's head.If we can afford no deal, we could have afforded more for the NHS anyway.So could there be another agenda?

MyCatIsBonkers · 01/10/2018 09:14

I'm still clinging to the belief that the country's parent will step in at the last minute, take the brexit toy away and send everyone to bed. My head just can't compute that 'they' will allow this to happen.

Peregrina · 01/10/2018 09:17

I hope for someone seeing sense at the last moment. Like the sudden crash of the South Sea Bubble or Tulip mania in Holland. If that happened, I could put up with the Leavers crowing that it was like the Y2K problem.

FridayThirteenth · 01/10/2018 09:26

The thing is, the vast majority are still not sitting up and taking notice. Even those that are anti Brexit. Everyone believes life will just carry on and seem oblivious to how close we are getting to no deal and all it's implications.

Surely at some point it's going to have to become widely clear just what is going to happen, and surely at that point those in their comfortable bubbles will start to make a fuss?

The impact assessments don't seem to have been widely published and still when I mention to my (very remainy) friends that I'm not yet booking flights for a trip I want to go on in April, they think I'm acting like a conspiracy theory loon.

How do we wake people up?

1tisILeClerc · 01/10/2018 09:33

{I'm still clinging to the belief that the country's parent will step in at the last minute, take the brexit toy away and send everyone to bed}
Nice try but we have had over 2 years of 'Home alone' with an annoying brat trashing the house and doing everything possible to really piss off EVERYBODY. You have to now consider why would the EU that has been forced to spend shitloads of money, possibly unnecessarily WANT the UK to stay? They have put up with the UK 'being mean' and not wanting to join in properly.
The improvements to ports like Rotterdam will come in handy for INCREASED trade to China, Russia, Japan and simply forget about the UK, some annoying little island between mainland Europe and Ireland.

prettybird · 01/10/2018 09:40

Friend posted this on FB, which I think is a good summary.

Paraphrasing Jeremy Hunt at tory conference

"The EU want to punish us for choosing to leave the EU by letting us experience the effects of leaving the EU”.

How utterly absurd. The harm we're going to be enduring is self inflicted.

Confused
Peregrina · 01/10/2018 09:42

"The EU want to punish us for choosing to leave the EU by letting us experience the effects of leaving the EU”.

But there weren't supposed to be any effects - the Trade deals that everyone was going to rush to do with us, were going to more than compensate.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 09:51

Really, it's quite simple. The UK has - quite impressively, given it's starting position - managed to paint itself into a world where the least-cost option for the EU as a whole is a no deal.

It's a feat of stupendous undertaking, and I think it's fair to say not many countries could have pulled it off so completely. If there were one of those "Seven wonders of the modern world" listicles that does the rounds, it would be unfair if Brexit didn't appear within a couple of places of the moon landing. Both required impressive amounts of effort of belief of the entire country.

So the tables are now turned, and it's the EU that can simply wait for the no deal crash out. As others have noted, countries are more prepared for no deal than any other deal, so why waste any more effort.

I'm now just curious as to how exactly the UK will go from 28th March to 30th March 2019 ? Will parliament even get a look in ? I'm guessing not ... I suspect that the government will say that no deal is "no deal to vote on" - so go whistle (to coin a phrase). The only way that can not happen is if a General Election were called first.

I think a key question, is can a General Election be called if the government resists it ? Or to put it another way, are there any Tory MPs who would vote against the government to force an election. Because frankly all we've seen so far is words, not votes.

DGRossetti · 01/10/2018 09:52

There's also an upside about creeping towards no deal, which is less shit from Brexiteers.

They aren't even trying now.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 09:53

norman smith @BBCNormanS
Hammond confirms taxes will have to go up to pay for promised extra £24b for NHS @BBCr4today

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Buteo · 01/10/2018 09:54

Even if the UK gets all these wonderful trade deals - doesn’t there need to be demand in those countries and don’t we actually need to produce the right stuff to sell to them? And if demand already exists, why aren’t we already selling stuff?

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 09:54

Beth Rigby @BethRigby
He also told @skynewssarah that people ‘would have to pay a little bit more’ to help fund aging population when asked about #NHS. And said to wait for the Budget.

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