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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 23:04

Surprising to remember that only back in 2015, under Cameron, the Tories did very well with young voters - compared to Tories historically.

The sudden change in just 2 years is because of Brexit; austerity started back in 2010 and hadn't lost them the youth vote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/30/tories-conservatives-could-go-out-of-business-without-engaging-young-voters-says-their-own-mp-neil-obrien

Neil O’Brien, who became MP for Harborough last year, noted that in the 2017 election there was a massive deficit between the Tories and Labour in terms of younger voters, and those from minority ethnic backgrounds.

At the 2015 election, O’Brien said, the Tories lagged two percentage points behind Labour for voters in their 20s, and by four percentage points for those aged 18-24.
Just two years later these deficits had shot up to 26 and 40 points behind.

< Has this last ditch victory by the hard right in bringing about Brexit doomed their party for the future ? >

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2018 23:11

Hopefully.

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2018 23:14

The Tories are the party of the rich and privileged, its in their DNA, austerity hits the less well off and vulnerable, certainly not the rich and if there is any upside to Brexit, it is the tories go the way of the Dodo.

SusanWalker · 30/09/2018 23:22

Harry Cole
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
Into the second hour of her speech Andrea Jenkyns calls for a new Royal Yacht Britannia to be built in the UK: "let this be the age of greatness, lets this be the age of global britain."

Myrnafoy · 30/09/2018 23:28

What I find sad is that despite the absolute mess the country is in - NHS, education, prison and probation service, emergency services, housing, the average joe will still probably vote Tory because they fear the alternative is even worse. Ever read any of the comments on the Facebook page of the bbc question time programme ?
Full of seemingly ordinary working class people who have this visceral hatred of ‘loony lefties’ and swoon over people like Jacob Rees Mogg ....just don’t get it Hmm

Icantreachthepretzels · 30/09/2018 23:39

So at the same time as appointing a minister for rationing and instructing the NHS to stockpile essential meds - the tories are also planning a festival of national celebration and brand new national yacht
are they out of their fucking minds????

A toddler can see that rationing and yachts do not go together!

Peregrina · 30/09/2018 23:39

Full of seemingly ordinary working class people who have this visceral hatred of ‘loony lefties’ and swoon over people like Jacob Rees Mogg ....just don’t get it

I fear that is the case, but don't forget the vitriolic hatred the Press showed for Corbyn before the 2107 election. We never heard the last of one time Labour voters telling us that they wouldn't vote Labour, so it looked as though May had her 100 seat majority in the bag. Despite that, she lost the slender majority she did have.

As for shipbuilding - well, it would be good to see a UK shipyard again, although I am sure there are better candidates for new ships than the Royal family. Are the Tories going to invest state aid in such shipyards?

AdaHopper · 30/09/2018 23:43

Stop whining you lot. Brexit is going to be great. And there is a video that proves it!

www.facebook.com/bbcthree/videos/2168932530015034/

(Sorry for those not on facebook)

MyBrexitUnicornDied · 30/09/2018 23:53

Festival of Britain ? - what the actual fuck is she thinking?

You know in a weird way the worse Brexit looks the more hope it gives me. Surely the numbers of people cheering on Brexit must be diminishing by the day?

I’m being too optimistic aren’t I. Hope it’s a killer Sad

Quietrebel · 01/10/2018 00:51

My heart sank when I read Hunt's rant today. And Mogg calling for the hardest of brexit etc.
Seems really hopeless right now.

mathanxiety · 01/10/2018 01:15

I think the real parallel is the tendency of British politicians to immediately seize the opportunity for internecine jockeying for position regardless of the effect on the major problem faced by Britain, when any major decision has to be made.

This happened throughout the final decades of Britain's relationship with Ireland, and it is the pattern for all other UK relationships ever since. No PM was ever certain of the backing of his party when dealing with Ireland. Every one was constantly waiting for the knife in the back, watching out to see who would wield it. Result = initially, Irish independence, and later the GFA which not only tacitly admitted the previously unthinkable possibility of Irish reunification but provided the means by which this can be achieved.

mathanxiety · 01/10/2018 01:23

Not that they really did before - the saw it as a chance to take power away from the British Empire.

And there is the other parallel that should be remembered. Focusing on the 1930s and on Hitler is focusing in the wrong place and on the wrong time.

The US has been continuously in expansionist mode since the early 1900s, with an uncharacteristic period of quiescence in the 1920s to late 30s.

RedToothBrush · 01/10/2018 03:30

Jessica elgot @jessicaelgot
Never mind the data breach, the #cpc18 app is the worst app I’ve ever encountered. The only result when you search for the time of the prime minister’s speech is “Nick Clegg.”

Nick Clegg @nickclegg
Well... as deputy prime minister I blocked the mad Tory ideas for a referendum. As prime minister I guess I could just stop their mad ideas for Brexit all together...

www.thesun.co.uk/news/7384606/theresa-may-chequers-brexit-conservative-conference-boris-johsnon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May opens door to dumping Chequers plan for a soft Brexit – as Tories defend her from Boris Johnson onslaught

Theresa May opens door to dumping Chequers plan for a soft Brexit – as Tories defend her from Boris Johnson onslaught

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
‘Anyone But Boris’ group of Tory MPs plan to boo him at conference Brexit rally on Tuesday;

At times like these a sense of humour and small acts of rebellion are gold dust to sanity

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 01/10/2018 04:00

What is worrying me about the UK are the problems noone has thought of, because noone has left such an integated trade bloc before.

It is like creating a new country off the coast of mainland Europe, but one with a large highly complex economy from day one, not at all like a developing country or former Eastern bloc country gaining independence - those countries knew and expected fundamental problems.
The Uk govt seems oblivious to the possible practical difficulties.
BigChoc

When Ireland declared independence from Britain (and the Empire) the rebels were under no illusion that they were revolutionaries. So all the institutions of state and the apparatus of the justice system remained, just with green paint instead of red and official titles and government publications in Irish as well as English, and trade went on with a few interruptions (the Anglo Irish trade war, for instance). The Common Law remained, and the Irish Parliament took up where it had left off a hundred or so years before, retooled to account for vastly increased suffrage, and with women's loos. The Civil Service remained in situ, with its traditions of impartial advice and professionalism.

Likewise, the countries of eastern Europe all moved from one bloc to another, understanding that being adrift was not sustainable and understanding that a solid legal foundation for trade is a very good thing.

There are plenty of lessons there for the UK, but they go unheeded because the myth of Empire and the 'special relationship' has a peculiar hold over a big chunk of the Tory party and the electorate, along with the misapprehension that because the UK and the US share a language they must be similar in terms of culture and interests, and this could not be further from the truth. Above all, there is the revolutionary zeal that seems to have taken a firm grip of the wheel.

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 06:47

There's a word my Grandma used to use which has evolved differently these days- pixilated. It means bewildered or confused. These government ministers are pixilated in the extreme ..The EU do not want to 'lock us in' -does Raab read the Mail? It's just a lucrative trading bloc- that's all.

We've asked to flounce off into the land of unknown unknowns and the EU've opened the door, waving au revoir.I suppose Raab does say if.

"If an attempt is made to lock us in via the back door of the EEA and customs union... or if the only offer from the EU threatens the integrity of our union, then we will be left with no choice but to leave without a deal."

No
Choice? What about staying and continuing our increasingly worthless and irritating participation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45700833

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 06:50

Raab clearly thinks ' no deal' keeps the integrity of our union intact?

BeardedMum · 01/10/2018 06:54

I am terrified when I look at people in charge of this mess. I guess at some point they will just disappar like CameronSadAngry

missclimpson · 01/10/2018 07:12

I woke up this morning planning a speech to say that the country is sleepwalking into a disaster and it is all just insane. Surely there must be someone, somewhere who can tell it like it is so the media will report it seriously. 😨

SergeantPfeffer · 01/10/2018 07:26

Well the bbc interviewed airked an interview with a Tory voter this morning who said “why should we pay Brussels? We paid our dues to Europe during the war!” 🤦‍♀️

This is how people in this country actually think and we are now going to have to pay for the tories desperation to win these sorts of people over. It’s so utterly stupid it blows my mind.

SergeantPfeffer · 01/10/2018 07:27

Apologies for typos- school run rushing!

woman11017 · 01/10/2018 07:29

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Myrnafoy · 01/10/2018 07:30

I watched Andrew Marr interviewing Theresa yesterday - really grilled her but she’s Teflon coated and just deflects the questions without even answering them ! She did look awkward though ....

lonelyplanetmum · 01/10/2018 07:44

Well the bbc interviewed airked an interview with a Tory voter this morning who said “why should we pay Brussels? We paid our dues to Europe during the war!”

Oh Lord I hate that line, my friend's rabid Leave Mum says that regularly in that oh so wise way.

I've tried to show her this but she won't even look at it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7cgRwDkP6vk#men

Annandale · 01/10/2018 07:49

'We paid our dues to Europe during the war'

What, ADULTS say that? Grown ups with proper jobs who can read and everything?

FUCK ME.

Mrsr8 · 01/10/2018 07:50

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.