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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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woman11017 · 30/09/2018 19:29

@JeremyCliffe
I've just spent several days in Riga talking to Latvian leaders. To hear Jeremy Hunt's comparison of the EU (which has brought Latvia prosperity, security & confidence) to Soviet domination (painful memories of which still traumatise this country) is repulsive, and below him.

Hunt's moronic comments about the EU in Birmingham were straight from the Kremlin's playbook and will doubtless play out on RT across central and eastern Europe tonight.

There was a time when Britain actually cared about this sort of thing: democracy, geopolitics, Europe & the West. Now it's a country engrossed in its own petty obsessions, barely shrugging at a world that needs capable & liberal British commitment more than ever. It's very sad.Genuine disgust is being felt here in Riga at Hunt's insincere speech comparing the EU to the Soviet Union. His comments have caused lasting damage:

@BaibaBraze
Dear @faisalislam , just FYI - Soviets killed, deported, exiled and imprisoned 100 thousands of Latvia's inhabitants after the illegal occupation in 1940, and ruined lives of 3 generations, while the EU has brought prosperity, equality, growth, respect. #StrongerTogether twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1046433310094905347
11 replies . 84 retweets 118 likes

Yes, Hester ukip barely exists, tories' membership is imploding, but nevertheless it goes on. Remain on nearer to 55% at least now, I would have thought.

Icantreachthepretzels · 30/09/2018 19:34

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-thousands-take-to-streets-at-conservative-conference-in-defiance-of-leaving-the-eu-a3949541.html

Looks like the anti brexit march today was a pretty good size.
The picture they used of Nigel Farage is Grin ... but the rhetoric he used at the leave means leave rally is concerning. Straight out of the facist dictator's handbook. Doesn't say how many people were at that rally though...

HesterThrale · 30/09/2018 19:37

Hunt also said we risk 'no Brexit at all':

foreign sec says party and country have to unite and disloyal Brexiters risk “no Brexit at all”...
“however fierce the debate, never forget that disunity and division won’t give us a better Brexit but the wrong Brexit, a Corbyn Brexit or perhaps no Brexit at all”

mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1046433654115913734

BlueEyeshadow · 30/09/2018 20:10

Risk?!

We got a People's Vote leaflet through our letterbox today, which is interesting. This constituency was strongly leave, hence our remainer MP being scared to do more than try to push for EEA/EFTA. Wonder how much the mood is actually changing here, if at all.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 20:32

Hunt is playing the game. His audience is the tory faithful. His weakness is he's seen as a remainer. If he wants to be leader, which he does, he needs to say the right things to the party members.

However there is still a touch of both siderism going on. Why mention no Brexit at all as an option?

When he reminds people of this, he's also encouraging part of the party who want that, to fight for it. He's placing an idea into heads that this a possibility still. This fires up the Brexiters too. And makes it more difficult for May in the process...

... Whilst he gets to play the loyal solider to May. But actually he's making her job harder at the same time. He not shouting a party line, he's fuelling the disunity. Deliberately so I'd argue too.

His outings as foreign sec so far have otherwise been far more diplomatic and gracious and frankly professional in comparison to Johnson. This isn't hard as Johnson set the bar spectacularly low. But the point is, the tone has been completely different to a foreign audience compared to a domestic one.

He does risk making the mistake May made in 2016 at the Tory Party Conference where foreign leaders had kittens (the last Estonian PM has been sounding off on twitter about Hunt) and it damaged relations with the EU.

But having a shot at being leader makes it a worthwhile gamble for Hunt. Cos he's playing party politics.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 30/09/2018 20:44

Hunt is playing the game
Definitely. But not for our team. He plays for the other side.
Apart from Johnson( who doesn't count as a minister for this country) I can't think of a foreign minister who's made such inflammatory accusations against all of our neighbours. Did George Brown?

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2018 20:55

This is an interesting read, sorry if its been linked to before

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-tory-labour-policy-hitler-appeasement-terrifying-parallels-a8553686.html

Remainer or Leaver, we should all take notice of history.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 21:07

Thanks jasjas1973 great article.
Indeed, significant pre-war pro-appeasement Tory politiciansSomerset de Chair (who first entered parliament in 1935, and whose son-in-law is the arch Leave advocate Jacob Rees-Mogg) became notable post-war proto-Eurosceptics

Labour leader George Lansbury delivered a speech which would have been music to the Fuhrer’s ears if he ever heard about it – and which represented an abandonment by Labour of the possibility of supporting any real physical backing for European stability: “I would close every recruiting station, disband the army, dismantle the navy, and dismiss the air force. I would abolish the whole dreadful equipment of war and say to the world, ‘Do your worst!’ I believe it would do its best.” Two years later, as Hitler was beginning to massively expand the aggressive capacity of the Luftwaffe, the Labour leadership actually blocked an internal party policy proposal to support British air parity with Germany

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 21:14

I work in the German automotive industry, in vehicle tech development and it is rubbish to say the 3-day week etc in Britain are because of the diesel scandal:

Auto manufacturers are not planning 3-day weeks or shutdowns after March in Germany, France, Italy, Spain etc - , just in Britain
and the planned date is from Brexit Day - just a coincidence ?

In fact, ever since the 2008 financial crisis, industry experts have been saying that the European market has too much manufacturing capacity and that probably at least one volume producer will be lost.

The diesel problem hitting all firms has added to this situation.
So there has been much speculation as to which manufacturer will be found the weakest, to gradually disappear

Now, I hear the industry opinion here (Germany) that Brexit is a game-changer
and that manufacturing capacity in Europe will be reduced not by taking out a manufacturer or two,
but by taking out capacity from several firms in a single country: the UK

Brexit certainly didn't create the problems in the auto industry, but it made the UK the obvious target for reduced capacity.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 21:21

It is not expected to be a dramatic pullout, unless extreme UK govt incompetence makes Brexit worse than all predictions.
Instead, manufacturers will not retool for their next model cycles, but will just let the current models run through to the end, to get the most from their existing investment.

There is much speculation that foreign investors - particularly Japanese - are preparing to sue the UK govt for any losses, under an existing international treaty that the UK pushed for and signed.
Reportedly Hammond has reserved a few billion in his UK piggy bank in case of this.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 21:32

There is much speculation that foreign investors - particularly Japanese - are preparing to sue
I saw that.

Reportedly Hammond has reserved a few billion in his UK piggy bank in case of this
Racism is so expensive.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 21:40

@Steve Bullock
I’m (foolishly) going to call this now. By the end of the Tory conference, the relationship with EU27 will have been irrevocably soured. UKGov won’t come with a new backstop text. Talks will continue through October, with no progress, just more bluster & blame from UKGov 1/

Yet another appalling diplomatic misjudgement. You have to wonder if UKGov have now accepted No Deal as a catastrophic reality that they lack the wit to avoid, and are now concerned solely with shifting the blame for their incompetence in driving the UK over the cliff. …

UKGov will reject a new EU27 text ‘dedramatising’ by allowing checks away from ports, and continue to falsely paint it as an attempt to break up the UK. The ‘emergency summit’ in November will be cancelled (or not announced). This will also be used to point blame at EU27. 2/

No Deal then looms, with the stab-in-the-back myth taking hold as a tame press parrots UKGov lines and whips up hatred. All companies that have them implement contingency plans. 3/

DoctorTwo · 30/09/2018 21:46

We should just build a bridge, doesn't matter where, and stick Boris under it, just so he can say "trip trap trip trap who's that crossing my bridge?" like the troll he is.

Peregrina · 30/09/2018 21:48

I agree with you BigChoc - I believe I said something the same maybe two years ago, or certainly 18 months ago, that the car factories would just not retool for the new models, rather than pull out. I wonder what bribe may did promise to Nissan? Did she promise anything to BMW, in Oxford? It would be especially galling for us, because we voted Remain. Many of us were walking around in shock for the next few days after the result. Now to me, my anti-Brexit feeling is just a cold anger.

Peregrina · 30/09/2018 21:56

This will also be used to point blame at EU27.
Absolutely. And as the UK breaks up I can just see the headlines in the Tory rags "EU breaks up UK." Not "Cameron and May break the UK", which will be the truth.

The article that jasjas linked to in the Independent is a sobering read and I have been reading much lately about the 1930s and how we blundered into war. One thing did strike me that would be different now - with the rise of China, the USA is now very much a declining power, so won't come be able to come to our aid. Not that they really did before - the saw it as a chance to take power away from the British Empire.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 22:04

Jacob Rees-Mogg calls African country 'the People's Republic of Jam Jar or something
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-calls-african-13337964

They're definitely going for it this week.

@J_amesp
Not looking good, is it?

MyCatIsBonkers · 30/09/2018 22:05

I was talking to a friend today who is a politician here in Sweden. He mentioned the Strazborg meeting and said they were blunt and to the point with TM because her attitude at that summit was aggressive, rude, belligerent and disrespectful. They were really shocked by it. They were also really shocked at the fact the death of Chequers seemed to come as a surprise to her as she'd been told over and over again.

When I told him that she thinks Chequers is still on the table he burst out laughing. Absolutely not he said. She thinks the EU are playing games, saying one thing but meaning something else. But they're not. They're telling her straight. There will be no last minute climb down from the EU, which appears to be what she's banking on.

He also told me that the governments of the 27 are pretty happy with their brexit preparations, which are well advanced. Their latest assessments show that any disruption caused by brexit to them should be back under control within 5 days. They are genuinely ready for no deal brexit

Moussemoose · 30/09/2018 22:05

The British belief that we can manage without or simply ignore Europe was to blame for many foreign policy mistakes in the first half of the 20th century with dire consequences.

A democracy is only as strong as individual MPs. MPs are elected to show leadership not follow the will of the people even if that means they make unpopular decisions. We are about to find out how strong our democracy is.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 22:10

Hunt just ended the negotiations.
@AndrewAtter
#CPC #Conservatives2018 Mr Hunt @foreignoffice @Jeremy_Hunt are you aware of the monumental diplomatic travesty you committed today? Donald Tusk was leader of Student Committee of Solidarity in Gdańsk from ‘81. He literally helped bring down the fall of Communism.

twitter.com/AndrewAtter/status/1046480406881742848

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 22:10

After banks, insurers and asset managers decided whether to move to Frankfurt or Dublin,
the other group cities have been tryng to woo are traders:
Looks like Paris has won them

Paris set to triumph as Europe’s post-Brexit trading hub

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/paris-set-to-triumph-as-europe-s-post-brexit-trading-hub-1.3646648?mode=amp

Paris is emerging as the favoured financial trading hub for continental Europe, as some of the world’s biggest banks and asset managers prepare for life after Brexit by steering their EU operations away from London to the French capital.

BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase are poised to join Bank of America and Citigroup in the vanguard, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Over the summer BofA accelerated its preparations for Brexit by announcing details of a new Paris trading floor with room for 1,000 staff.

Wall Street rival JPMorgan Chase is also increasingly attracted by Paris, bankers said, though it has yet to declare officially how big a trading operation it will put in the city.
“Over time, and depending on if a place becomes the new financial centre in Europe, we may do what we did in London 20 years ago, and consolidate,”

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 22:17

Looks like Paris has won them
James Patrick predicted these industry and banking flights almost to the week.

her attitude at that summit was aggressive, rude, belligerent and disrespectful. They were really shocked by it
Sad There is something very troubled and troubling about this woman.
Which is being used.

Annandale · 30/09/2018 22:19

The US entered WWII in response to an attack by Japan and a declaration of war by Hitler. But yes, the world is very different now, and having a TV personality in the White House who experiences any legal/rule bound relationship (such as marriage, business partnership, democratic election, international treaty) as an intolerable attempt to upstage his top billing, means the reactions will be rather different.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 22:30

The EU leaders have repeatedly said that both the E27 and the UK will suffer from Brexit; it's unavoidable.

The E27 all look far better prepared than the UK, but I expect the RoI, Rotterdam (Netherlands), Calais in particular to be hit hard.

However, the E27 will rally round them

whereas the UK will be hit far worse and will have no neighbours rallying round

  • I don't expect help from Trump across the Atlantic either, just a smash & grab operation

Also, the E27 won't have lost all their trade deals around the world, their international transport links, their essential agencies like EURATOM.

What is worrying me about the UK are the problems noone has thought of, because noone has left such an integated trade bloc before.

It is like creating a new country off the coast of mainland Europe,
but one with a large highly complex economy from day one, not at all like a developing country or former Eastern bloc country gaining independence

  • those countries knew and expected fundamental problems. The Uk govt seems oblivious to the possible practical difficulties.

... those "unknown unknowns"

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 22:39

those "unknown unknowns
There are nutter brexitty/trump Rapture types tweeting in support of no deal, which is not fantastically encouraging. Bad luck for us that Marxism has its own rapturist malarkey too. What bad timing.

wherearemychickens · 30/09/2018 22:58

Fucking hell this is so depressing. It feels like being in the slow motion bit of a car crash where all the good things in life flash before you, before we get to March next year with no deal and everything speeds up and bad shit happens with a godawful blur and bang.

And yet at the same time most people seem utterly clueless - I had someone at work last week say to me, "A hard border in Ireland - what's that then?"