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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

OP posts:
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DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 17:28

The moral of the story is you cannot safely hold a festival that celebrates an event that half the population did not want to happen in the first place - not whilst that event is in living memory, anyway.

In 1977, our stretch of road - about 80 houses - didn't have street party because the conservative councillor who lived two doors down from us objected on the grounds that "too many Indians live there". His (only) son was a year younger than me, so also missed out.

OK, generations ago. Or so you'd think. But it shows (a) how Tories are racist cunts, and (b) how willing they are to sacrifice someone elses happiness, if it means sticking it to foreigners.

I suspect that "Brexitval" would be a very carefully vetted event. Probably cross referenced with the voting slips from 2016.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 17:31

DGR Did he really say that? Surely he can't be that stupid?

To be terribly honest, who cares ? Remainers have had to put up with so much shit and lies from Leavers ... who gives a flying fuck if poor JRM has to suffer a made up quote. Diddums. I'm sure nanny will kiss it better.

(The more astute may suspect that DGR hasn't quite "got over it", yet)

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 17:35

@Andrew_Adonis
The more I think of Mrs May’s 2022 festival to celebrate the centenary of Irish partition, the more revolting it seems. When she nonchalantly agreed this further sop to Arlene Foster & the DUP, did she have any idea of the hugely negative political & cultural symbolism?

Is she as pretzels said announcing the start of a civil war? She threatens us on the mainland with starvation and the EU27 with a basket case war torn state on its doorstep. Involving one of the EU27 states by default.

prettybird · 30/09/2018 17:36

Just said to dh that "work expenses" should be just that: "work expenses " Confused

No profit involved yes, I know that is a strange concept for many MPs Hmm

But then I corrected myself: it might then be that some people can arrange to get fed while they are away/out on business, thus leaving more food rations available for their family SadAngry

Icantreachthepretzels · 30/09/2018 17:40

Yes he can be that ignorant. He has no concept of people not having them. Everyone he knows will have all of them.

I have long held the (completely undemocratic) belief that people who received a private education should not be allowed to become mps. There is no excuse for people as delusional and out of touch as JRM to be allowed to make decisions for a population he has no experience of.
If you want to rule the country - you should have to have spent a substantial amount of your formative years with plebs ordinary people. Otherwise you do not have the knowledge and experience of their lives to make you fit to govern the country for them.

plus it would be very funny to watch the likes of JRM wrestle with the decision on whether to send their children to public schools and keep them with their own sort - but accept that they were cutting off any political ambitions, or send them to state school - and risk exposure to poor people - but still allow them to become PM

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 17:46

Hunt's just come over all brexist and compared EU to USSR. Macedonia is another ex Soviet area desperate to join EU Hmm
Dangerous jingoistic fibs.

Peregrina · 30/09/2018 17:52

I could very much see N Ireland understanding the significance of 2022 and pushing for reunification for that date. As for, "the RoI couldn't afford it", or "NI couldn't afford it", well neither can afford Brexit either, so they might think they will go for it.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 18:02

Hunt's speech is ridiculously aggressive, referring to EU "punishing the UK" and:

"if you put a country like Britain in a corner, we don’t crumble. We fight." Hmm

What does he mean by "fight" ?
Starting a trade war ?
A blockade of key sea routes - from the RoI ? - by the Royal Navy, with minefields?

I know he wants to be leader, but is he prepared to promise war to do so ?

YeOldeTrout · 30/09/2018 18:04

Awww... Jeremy Hunt warns the EU "If UK screw this up it's YOUR fault." Isn't that nice?

Does anyone recall what happened to "The easiest trade deal in history" ?

Mrsr8 · 30/09/2018 18:16

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Mistigri · 30/09/2018 18:17

Hunt just wants to be PM. He doesn't believe any of this.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 18:21

Misti Hardly any of them are stupid enough to believe the rubbish they are spouting
but they are whipping up anger and aggression in millions of low information citizens

This is probably their only chance of retaining power through and after Brexit

So get used to seeing this rabble-rousing, even from formerly "respectable" Tory ministers

  • it could last a long time
Havanananana · 30/09/2018 18:23

Re - Festival Of Brexit briefing notes;

'Political Points to Make'

Labour messed up the Millennium Dome - OK, Blair got carried away, but the fundamentally flawed Millennium Dome project was inherited from the previous Conservative government who had already sunk millions into the project.

Before giving it away to developers - Hmm, I seem to remember a certain large stadium in East London being 'given away' to West Ham United. The £769m Olympic Stadium is rented to WHU for £2.5m a year. [For comparison, the new White Hart Lane stadium will cost Spurs over £400m to build, and the Emirates stadium cost Arsenal £470m].

It is possibly entirely coincidental that the vice chairwoman of West Ham United is the Conservative Baroness Brady, former Small Business Ambassador under the Cameron government. Someone obviously had a good head for business when doing the stadium deal with the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson.

TheElementsSong · 30/09/2018 18:24

If UK screw this up it's YOUR fault

To be fair, it has been a pretty common trope amongst Leavers. Whilst, simultaneously, it'll be the easiest deal in history because don't they know who we are and they need us more than we need them.

Motheroffourdragons · 30/09/2018 18:26

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Mistigri · 30/09/2018 18:29

Misti Hardly any of them are stupid enough to believe the rubbish they are spouting
but they are whipping up anger and aggression in millions of low information citizens

I'm not sure that's true. I think that some of them are just really quite simple (Leadsome, Grayling, Fox) and some of them are walking adverts for cognitive dissonance.

Not Hunt though. He's just a ...

ShinyElena · 30/09/2018 18:42

My leaver family's only take on this all was that Farage called Macron a ghastly little man Radio WM and isn't it wonderful. Oh, the irony! I guess Farage would have liked to give the keynote and is hanging around the West Midlands.

Also some factories in the car supply chain are going to three-day work weeks, shift work for everyone and week long stoppages. They are preparing indeed. But no one in the family made the connection to Brexit.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 18:47

But no one in the family made the connection to Brexit.

They never will.

Justanotherlurker · 30/09/2018 18:59

Also some factories in the car supply chain are going to three-day work weeks, shift work for everyone and week long stoppages.

There are some factors at play, however the major one in this scenario is the diesel fuck up, the whole industry is in turmoil really and manufacturers are trying to figure out ways to make money from mobility rather than just cars now.

It's not your family of leavers who are ignorant of facts in this situation, plus if they are employed by them they will be on 3 day week but still payed full time.

ShinyElena · 30/09/2018 19:05

I know there are other factors at play Justanotherlurker, but in this case it is specifically about Brexit, but I would rather not name where my family members work.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 19:06

Jeremy Hunt has compared the EU to the "prison" of the Soviet Union as it tries to prevent member states from leaving
news.sky.com/story/foreign-secretary-jeremy-hunt-compares-eu-to-prison-of-soviet-union-11513718

I keep forgetting to put my personal 'double think' app on.
Hunt was describing us in March 2019. Silly me.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 19:13

if they are employed by them they will be on 3 day week but still payed full time

That would be thanks to EU workers' rights legislation, just over turned by the government without a parliamentary vote.

No jobs and no rights, wasn't on the bus either.

Courtesy of the 'Brexit' Repeal Act.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
Mistigri · 30/09/2018 19:20

the major one in this scenario is the diesel fuck up, the whole industry is in turmoil really and manufacturers are trying to figure out ways to make money from mobility rather than just cars now.

This is reaching, to say the very least...

New passenger car registrations up 6% in the EU YTD and diesel is still at around 45%-ish (and diesel is a much higher % of commercial vehicles, registrations of which are up 5% YTD).

Source: ACEA

HesterThrale · 30/09/2018 19:23

That photo of Ukippers - a bit sad really.
And have you noticed Leavers always say '17.4 million people voted out', rather than 51.9%?
Maybe sounds bigger...and ignores the fact of the close result...?

Icantreachthepretzels · 30/09/2018 19:27

[[https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45696015 I do believe in Brexit says Theresa May]

I find her wording unfortunate - it just puts me in mind of the cowardly lion I do believe in spooks I do believe in spooks I do I do I do I do I do believe spooks.

The riposte of the wicked witch of the west being: You'll believe in more than that when I'm done with you.

It also has a bit of 'I do believe in fairies' to it.

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