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Brexit

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/09/2018 23:25

The key phrase that was once parroted by all the lead Brexiteers, and repeated by their social media followers.

BUT curiously, it seems that those who once said it with such conviction seem to be backing away from it.

Take a lot around at who is saying it, and who no longer seem to be. Certainly not with the same force.

May, alone, seems to have decided to nail herself to the mast of No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal in her post Salzberg Toddler Strop. She seemed to be announcing that in practice No Deal was now official government policy, because the EU weren’t playing ball. It wasn’t an abandonment of Chequers but it seemed close to it.

But who else is still saying it? It would seem its only the die hards on twitter and the Nigel Farage / Arron Banks camp.

Not people with tangible power. Not people who have to actually vote on the matter. Apart from Theresa.

David Davis who at one point seemed to be saying it every other day, now seems - along with Jacob Rees Mogg and Boris Johnson - to have moved to a Canada Plus position. They don’t seem to be anywhere near so enthusiastic about a No Deal. The ERG as a whole largely seems to be backing off the idea, though if it happened, they probably wouldn’t be too upset. They just they are starting to see more risk than even than even they would like to hazard as a first choice, contained within No Deal. When No Deal is starting to be perceived as too risky for disaster capitalists, you might start to pay attention.

But nope. Not Theresa.

Theresa has very firmly got it into her head that this is her ‘Iron Lady’ moment. The rhetoric about not being for turning, is deliberately evocative to a certain group. She’s trying to get a deal like Thatcher got with the CAP from the EU. Except we’ve been there and done that and politically is that even an option for the EU to do that in our current political climate with Trump and the Rise of the Authoritarians.

May’s previous track record, also points to her stubborness going above and beyond the point where it is sensible - or even sane - to continue to pursue. She is pig headed to the point of spite. She takes things personally when things going against her. In the Home Office she took cases to appeal which defy all sense of logic and public interest purpose. Its been up to the courts to tell her no in, no uncertain terms before she has eventually stopped. And in some cases she ignored this. Its petty, its arrogant and right now it's a clear and present danger to the national interest.

The Cabinet who have remained loyal to May up to this point, are also starting to recognise the danger. The Times has reported that Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid are in this camp and May can not necessarily rely on them. They are said to be leaning towards the ERG position.

The problem being that the DUP seem to be going in the opposite direction in leaning towards a softer Brexit. They label both Chequerers and Canada as unworkable. The reality of the border is kicking in, in the circle that matters. The DUP can not ignore nor underestimate the potential for rising support for a United Ireland.

Theresa as a committed Unionist is now very much at odds with the DUP.

May also is facing rebellion for a reported 40 MPs over Canada, according to Amber Rudd. Again they are pushing for a softer option.

In the background is the revised labour policy which now supports a People’s Vote, if they can’t force a General Election. They also won’t support a deal for May. It's something of a fudged position with limited effect, but it's a move to a softer position than previously. Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, also is alleged to have challenged the leadership by saying Remain would be an option during the Labour conference. McDonnell has very much denied this.

In October 2016, it was said by Donald Tusk that it was a choice between a very Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077

It was also said by the former Polish Finance Minister that Hard Brexit was the easiest political choice for both the UK and Europe.
www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-political-logic-of-hard-brexit

For everything that has gone on in the last two years, these two points of view seem to be holding up better than the majority that any British commentator has come out with.

And whilst Theresa might now be the only one still saying no deal is better than a bad deal, she is perhaps the closest to the political reality of the dynamics of how everything is going.

Her Salzburg speech, definitely came from a mess of her own making, as she was unable and unwilling to take different political approaches and she lacked pragmatism and flexibility. But at the same time, where she is now is also a result of always being something of a hostage to political circumstance too.

Her speech can also be read as an inadvertent announcement and a warning of ‘accidental no deal’ because she does recognise that all alternative political solutions domestically are impossible to her and she can only be saved by the EU. That’s not taking back control. That’s begging for a way out and for the EU to solve British political problems, which they have always said they would not intervene in.

And isn’t that just the irony.

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RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 16:13

Whoever owns Brexit when we leave has a choice: they either are damaged politically or are blamed for the economic damage.

If its looking particularly toxic there is actually an incentive to hold a general election. And potentially to lose it.

Whether we will get there is another matter...

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DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 16:14

Julia Hartley-Brewer @juliahb1

Seems a tad dim, if she thinks from her tweet:

Dear Tories gathering at party conference and wondering how to win the next election, BUILD MORE HOUSES.

That (a) anyone gives a flying fuck what JHB thinks, and (b) that any future government is ever going to "build houses". Putting aside the fact that it sounds dangerously socialist (I'm sure she had her fingers crossed when she tweeted it), what's the incentive ? Any government stupid enough to "build more houses" is only going to incur the wrath of people who have already bought houses, plus the wrath of the developers that have banked land to make lots of money.

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 16:15

Is Ms JHB missing a word - Build more SOCIAL housing?

er, no. JHB is a vaguely mini-me Katie Hopkins. Or at least that's teh opinion I have formed from her tweets and general demeanour.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 16:18

Is Ms JHB missing a word - Build more SOCIAL housing?

Tbf more houses of any kind would ease pressure on social housing. As long as they aren't unoccupied for investment. Extra supply would be useful.

What Julia HB says also echoes what I hearing. Once upon a time saying such a thing would be a voter loser.

The mere fact anyone like Julia HB is saying it is a shift and important

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DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 16:21

Whoever owns Brexit when we leave has a choice: they either are damaged politically or are blamed for the economic damage.

The answer, of course, is to ensure that the political system of the future doesn't actually allow voters to do anything (other than vote).

I'm vague surprised no one on the swivel-eyed-loon side of the Tories has thought to call for the next GE to be suspended (as it was during their beloved war) given the "importance of Brexit".

Or are they keeping that up their sleeve ?

Ultimately, if the government decided that a General Election was "too destabilising" what can be done about it ? Especially since it's already been conceded that elections are counter to democracy ?

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 16:22

The mere fact anyone like Julia HB is saying it is a shift and important

As a talking point. Don't expect any more houses though. That ship sailed years ago.

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 16:22

Mood 3: Surprised by presence of more than a few Tories at nearby “People’s Vote” march - thought it would be mainly Libdems... adamant what appears self evident - theyve entirely lost their party - can be overturned... Number of their MPs backing is creeping up, tho still small
Quite a few tories for People's Vote placards out at today's march.
Dominic Grieve was campaigning in Beaconsfield yesterday on People's Vote stall. Heidi Allen announced support yesterday too.

Steve SODEM in Boots the chemist in Birmingham, happened upon David Davis and asked him a few questions about medicine, especially insulin, post no deal. Guess what the answer was.
twitter.com/SODEMAction/status/1046399031956705286

2022 is centenary of Parition of Ireland.
Pretty tasteless and provocative. Probably deliberately so.
alphahistory.com/northernireland/partition-of-ireland/

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 16:30

2022 festival of brexit might be an Orange Lodge March round the whole country, with its attendant issues.

1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 16:36

There is quite a bit of housing outside the SE but the problem is insufficient decent jobs. Governmentally it COULD be cheaper to encourage jobs rather than new houses.
I've heard that 'the North' can be quite pleasant on a sunny day.

prettybird · 30/09/2018 16:41

If I were Nicola Sturgeon, I'd tell her to fuck off go take a running jump on "the collaboration with the devolved nations [with the Festival of Great Britain and Northern Ireland]" Angry I note that they're not planning on calling it "The Festival of the United Kingdom" because we are not Hmm

But I'm not and I'm sure Nicola will be more diplomatic even if the answer were still "Fuck Off" Wink

lonelyplanetmum · 30/09/2018 16:42

All these jobs going isn't a price worth paying then?

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTIPx0lI6pb-3Tn-3D6uNJNyKcCd-A8uPMxViagyJAR9T87ZmnSdAEPCzp5ljlNYoUNdxJiJqQdBm7b/pubhtml

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 16:49

Why the Daily Mirror is having to tread a Brexit tightrope
Worried about their Northern readership

www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2018/sep/30/daily-mirror-brexit-tightrope-labour-split-second-eu-vote

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 30/09/2018 16:58

Have been away from SM and all news sources all day. Started telling DH and in-laws about stuff I’d read on this thread very late last night - the Festival of Brexit and the Conservative conference app gaff. Stopped half way through as I suddenly became convinced I’d actually dreamt it all.

Festival of Fucking Brexit. She’s insane.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 16:59

The Tories receive twice as much money from dead members as live ones !

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45271284

Combined with the facts that they only won only 27% of the votes of 18- to 34-year-olds last GE

and that voters are generally not turning Tory as they move into middle age, because they are not accumulating wealth like previous mc and upper wc generations

Not healthy demographics for them.
Is the Tory party finally going to die out, or will the US oligarchs manage to turn them into a US-type hard right party of hate ?

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2018 17:03

Festival of Britain = bread and circuses
... maybe without the bread !

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 17:03

Why the Daily Mirror is having to tread a Brexit tightrope Worried about their Northern readership

I presume this is repeated for the other papers too ? Just like political parties are split along Leave/Remain lines, so papers will be too ? Sadly it's an unequal contest, as Remainers are probably better equipped to apply learning and discretion to biased content than Brexiteers.

Mind you, despite knowing a few people (remembers DM, fondly) who are/were Mail readers, not one of them remotely sympathised with their politics. DMs reasoning was that she just didn't like broadsheets. Once you eliminate them, the only tabloid which isn't a comic is the Mail. (When I started buying papers, I had the same view - the moment the Times went tabloid, I switched).

Some people used to only but The Telegraph for the crossword ....

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 17:04

and that voters are generally not turning Tory as they move into middle age, because they are not accumulating wealth like previous mc and upper wc generations

We're doing our best to hang on to what little we have ...

DGRossetti · 30/09/2018 17:06

.

Westministenders: “No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal?”
1tisILeClerc · 30/09/2018 17:12

Why do I have a feeling that JRM may not be correct in his assertion?

woman11017 · 30/09/2018 17:12

@AdamBienkov
At the “How can the Conservatives win back the under-45s?” Fringe. Average age of audience: 55. Number of bow ties: 2.

George Freeman asks for a show of hands for how many women there are in the room under the age of 47. There are around 8.

twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1046371387819139073

Is the Tory party finally going to die out
It exists but only as a front for its benficiaries, I don't know what the technical name for that is.

Icantreachthepretzels · 30/09/2018 17:17

Surely having a brexit festival (whatever they call it - and whyever they pretend their doing it - we all know what it is) to celebrate something which 48% and rising of the population did not want in the first place is ... misguided at best.

If she's thinking a festival as in the type they have for jubilees - street parties and discos at community centres - then basically that is just announcing the day that she plans for the civil war to officially start. (Though if we've made it all the way to 2022 without one I will be impressed.)

If she's thinking 'festival' as in one specific place a la the crystal palace or the millennium dome ... well, good luck getting in to visit that with all the protesters there will be outside (presuming the IRA don't just 'deal' with it first). She's announcing the site where she would like the first battle of the civil war to be held. (again - probably three years too late.)

The moral of the story is you cannot safely hold a festival that celebrates an event that half the population did not want to happen in the first place - not whilst that event is in living memory, anyway.

And where is she thinking the money for all this going to come from? Does she really think tax payers who have suffered through food and medication shortages, who have lost their homes and their jobs and are facing spiralling cost of living increases are going to be happy to stump up the cash to pay for a vanity project festival? A festival that celebrates the event that caused them to lose their entire way of life?

Has she completely taken leave of her senses? And does she not have more pressing things to think about right now than a sodding street party in four years time?

Hasenstein · 30/09/2018 17:21

DGR

Did he really say that? Surely he can't be that stupid?

Of course, everyone's got bonds & shares to offset adverse Brexit effects. Oh, and we've all got fat inheritances to fall back on. Maybe we can rely on fiddling our "work expenses", which is no doubt a highly prized skill in Westminster.

MyBrexitGoesOnHoliday · 30/09/2018 17:22

www.yahoo.com/news/brexit-cost-britain-500-million-pounds-week-study-110644249--business.html?guccounter=1

Britain's decision to leave the European Union has cost the government 500 million pounds a week, wiping out for the moment any future savings from stopping payments to the bloc
Oh dear, so at the moment it cost TWICE as much to play at dong Brexit than it was before (because we are still paying the EU anyway until march19).
Where’s the money for the NHS then???

Hasenstein · 30/09/2018 17:24

Has she completely taken leave of her senses? And does she not have more pressing things to think about right now than a sodding street party in four years time?

Perhaps she's been watching too many Leni Riefenstahl films. Well, lots of people turned out for the Nuremberg rallies.

RedToothBrush · 30/09/2018 17:24

Did he really say that? Surely he can't be that stupid?

Have you been paying attention to the last two years?

Yes he can be that ignorant. He has no concept of people not having them. Everyone he knows will have all of them.

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