Just how bad is it going to be? No scaremongering.

[BoyMeetsWorld]

I'm very very worried as, I'm sure, are a lot of people.

Please can we have a thread with no scaremongering or speculation where we objectively look at just how bad it is likely to be if No Deal happens which Ms May seems set upon. For those of us left here with no escape route to live anywhere else...those of us who aren't currently in poverty but by no means rich, just middle earners with kids.

What is the most realistic situation we can expect to manage the horror stories and prepare properly? I'd like to try and cover all aspects of daily life which are likely to be impacted in a substantial way.

Bear in mind that 'serious' traders around the world are watching the UK Gov mess about and tell 'untruths' and so will take a lot of persuasion to deal. The UK is losing credibility rapidly.

The EU really don't want a No Deal but they can't break their own rules to accept a deal. We can't just offer one deal, at this very late stage in a two year negotiating process, and say 'take it or leave it'. It's utterly irresponsible.

The reality is that there are so, so many things that need resolving that no one thinks about because we've never needed to before and we're nowhere near prepared enough. Last week I was working on chlorine supplies for example. There are only two producers of chlorine in the world. If we can't get chlorine we can't cremate people. Just one tiny thing in a huge mosaic of things.

Basically anything we don't wholly produce in the U.K, including any parts required in manufacture, chemicals (including fertiliser), packaging, etc, is liable to be disrupted. That leaves us with very little and people haven't grasped that. Just one example, I've seen people on here saying that in the event of food supply disruption they'll eat lots of pulses and be fine. Where in this country are we producing beans and lentils?

Stockpiling of everything needs to be at least six weeks.

Motheroffour
TBH the FSCS stuff is all rather a red herring
nobody has actually lost their savings in a UK bank since 1971
even when ING went bust, other banks snapped up their deposits
ditto Northern Rock

The UK remains a valuable and important trading partner of the EU, particularly Germany.
We run a deficit with them to the tune of €21bl and approx €50bln across the remaining nations.
I am not saying the UK government isn’t making a huge cock up of the handling of Brexit, but while we import so much we remain a strategically important “client”

fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

If everybody in the UK gets poorer , we aren't much of a client any more. They will come back if we get economically stronger. There are other people to sell to.

If BMW can sell a car to a Spaniard for £45000 with no stress of tariffs / customs / specifications
or to a Brit for £44000 with customs delays and costs of having to put the steering wheel on the other side (due to the weak pound)
which one do you think they will choose to do?

Or, we are in a bad position to strike a new trade deal . But hey, they need us more than we need them. Faridge keeps saying it so it must be true.

@bellinsurge, the fact a global recession is forecast means there will be less purchasing power across the globe. Not just the UK.

But why let “facts” get in the way of the abhorrence remainers feel towards people who voted to leave, even when data is offered which may challenge that view

I've been watching 3BlokesInAPub in YouTube. Awful lot of facts there. From people who know stuff.
I accept there is a predicted global recession. All the more reason not to make the country vulnerable.

I might be missing something here frank but we sell 274 billion or 44% of our total to the EU, we are one country, treating the EU as a country and the figures look bad but it isn't, the 8% or even the 18% of their total exports is divided amongst 27 different countries.

German exports $1.2 trillion world wide, double the UK's sum, whilst IN the EU, 67billion to the UK, it is a comparatively small amount, it is why German business are not knocking down Merkels door to have a deal with the UK, they value the EU's single market and the EU's FTA's far more.

Of course even in a no deal, some trade will still take place, we certainly wouldn't want all those euro car dealers to go out of business.

I'll say again, Brexit is a potential business opportunity to the EU, they can take back finance and manufacturing to the mainland and May knows this, despite the humiliation, the UK gov still wants that deal, it realises that no-deal will be v bad for all of us.

@bellinsurge I don’t tend to use Youtube to educate myself, but if it works for you, who the hell am I to use qualitative data in an effort to help you see the “other” side?

Ah, i get it now, when forecasters come up with "facts" that suit Brexit, these must be accurate but when the same people say the UK will be worse off outside of the EU, that becomes "Project fear" ?

@FrankUnderwoodsWife , you do you. Perhaps you don't want to listen to a person with loads of experience in making international trade or someone who operates a pan-European courier service.
But hey, JRM is more knowledgeable and experienced.

Thanks isittimeformybathyet thats really interesting and concerning. Do you really believe they'll do it, no chance of saying "fuck this it's a bad idea" from central gov point of view?

Ta1kinpeace

It’s quite obvious that they will sell two cars. One to the Brit and one to the Spaniard isn’t it. Basic business that isn’t it???

Frank is right and his point is valid. However, it doesn't trump the single market and those rules will not change to accommodate us.

All i am trying to say, is while a no deal is BAD for the UK, the EU wont come out unscathed.

@bellinsurge, you know nothing about me, or what I know, and who I talk to in order to better inform my views.
God forbid anyone doesn’t follow the MN consensus, and if you do get labelled ignorant and racist.

The lack of respectful dialogue surrounding Brexit by both sides is why it is set to fail

@FrankUnderwoodsWife - I have not labelled you anything. You clutch at whatever straws make you happy.

@bellinsurge I am happy, because I tend to be a 1/2 glass full kind of person, who looks for the positive, rather than the negative.

I guess you and I are poles apart,so will never see eye to eye, what with you being a prepper therefore of the mindset to be expecting and thankful for Armageddon, in order to be proved “right”

'German Cars' - again.

The UK is an important market for German cars, but not anything like as important as the UK likes to think.

VW sells 10 million vehicles a year worldwide - only 250,000 of which are sold in the UK, so less than 3% of annual sales. VW sells 4 million vehicles a year in China alone - the same China that the Brexiters claim the UK cannot sell to because of the EU. After Brexit, VW will continue to sell to the UK - the cars will just cost the customer 10% more.

Mercedes and BMW sell less than 10% of their production to the UK. People who want a Mercedes or BMW will still buy one after Brexit - the car will just cost 10% more. These customers are not going to start buying a Hindustan Ambassador instead.

If you don't want to buy a German car, your options are almost entirely cars built in other EU countries - Fiat, Renault, Peugeot, Opel/Vauxhall, Skoda are obviously European cars, but so are Kia, Toyota and Hyundai, which are built in Slovakia, Poland and Czech Republic for the European market. Once Jaguar/Land Rover, Mini, Nissan and Honda relocate, almost all cars sold in the UK will be from the EU. Even Jeeps are built by their owners, Fiat.

EU manufacturers will lose some sales to the UK, but will actually gain overall if the UK car assembly plants are relocated. The UK however loses one of the major exporting industries and 200,000 people will lose their jobs.

Now repeat for aerospace, chemicals, machine tools, food and drink - the EU loses a bit of their market; the UK risks losing a whole lot. But why worry - Minford, Rees-Mogg and Raab think it's alright for UK manufacturing and agriculture to be destroyed. It's a price worth paying - apparently.

Don't know much about uk prepping do you?

Hazardswan I know no more about what will end up happening than anyone else although I am convinced that France and Germany will do everything they can to soften Brexit for their own sakes as much as anything else. But I think the next two weeks of party conferences will tell us a huge amount about the possibilities for the next six months; not exactly an insider view! I'm also pretty certain No Deal won't get through Parliament but not a scooby what will happen after those votes. If it weren't so upsetting it would be fascinating.

No deal doesn't need to get through parliament. It's simply the default position at 23h00 on 29/3 if no withdrawal agreement has been signed.

But I agree that all parties will be working very hard to make sure that doesn't happen.

Does anyone feel we were better prepared and better informed for the 'Millennium Bug'? I worked in A&E then and did the millennium night shift. I was attending planning meetings and regularly receiving briefings for over 6 months before the date so we all knew what to do if everything went tits up at midnight. Brexit is bigger, more uncertain and with such huge consequences yet no-one convinced me there is any robust preparation.

I repeat: No deal brexit is as bad for the EU as it is for the UK, so while this is of OUR making, it is also in the EUs interest to negotiate a deal
No deal leaves both sides too vulnerable, and I can’t see the tax payers in France and Germany willingly picking up the tab for OUR decison