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Brexit

'People's Vote' - is it pie in the sky? Is there simply not enough time left?

141 replies

Ihaventgottimeforthis · 11/09/2018 20:02

I think there is increasing momentum behind the idea of a 'People's Vote', as a second referendum on the 'Final Deal'.
But reading this Jack of Kent blogpost from December last year, he thought we were running out of time then, let alone ten months later.
jackofkent.com/2017/12/there-will-soon-not-be-enough-time-for-a-further-referendum-before-29-march-2019/

Essentially, we can't vote on the Final Deal until we know what it is, we need new (and better) legislation, we need time for a campaign and we need a procedure to revoke A50. And that's even if the idea of a second referendum was supported by the government or the opposition.
So (as much as I would LOVE Brexit to be reversed as it's the Worst Idea Ever) I think this People's Vote campaign is a distraction and false hope.

Can anyone with more knowledge tell me different? Please? Pretty Please?

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SacrebleuLondres · 11/09/2018 21:46

There won't be a deal to vote on. No deal will satisfy Brexiters and solve the Irish border problem.

So we are left with Remain or Crash Out. There is no appetite in Parliament to crash out. As they are also not very brave it's likely the decision gets handed back to the people. If more time is needed I don't see why the EU27 Council of Ministers wouldn't agree to an extension- but only for a vote.

I have never thought there would be a deal. Nor have I ever thought we would leave in the end.

We do need public sentiment to change more convincingly. It's happening. The latest demonstration today by the Mogg band of idiots is going to scare people. When we solidly get to 60/40 for a vote you'll see the political voices get
Louder for a vote. It's beginning to happen.

Theworldisfullofgs · 11/09/2018 21:49

Apparently the government have asked for legal advice for extending article 50

twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1039397028059639808?s=19

That might make a difference..

SacrebleuLondres · 11/09/2018 21:54

@Theworldisfullofgs

It requires unanimous consent. It's written clearly in A50. The analysis is political not legal. I don't see extension as a possibility unless to accommodate a vote. Why would the EU27 agree? We've messed around for two years, still don't know what we want. Why would more time change that?

1tisILeClerc · 11/09/2018 22:11

A delay might buy a couple of weeks but the EU will not want indecision to run into their next election period which a month or two after 'B' day.
Apart from that, there is no point. The UK have buggered around for 2 years and almost less sign of them actually getting serious.
Mr Raab getting a 'flea in his ear' because UK have been trying to negotiate 'private deals' with countries directly to maintain flights and shipping.

FocusOnMePlease · 11/09/2018 22:12

They have said they will allow an extension for a snap election or if they are very close to sealing a deal where everyone is satisfied. They will not extend if we are still dicking around like we have been for the last 2 years and no further in to negotiations. If we asked for more time for another vote i would think they would allow time for this only incase the out come was we will remain, but if the outcome was leave again that would be it and we would leave with no deal or whatever shit terms we had already agreed on.

MorrisZapp · 11/09/2018 22:14

What would be on the ballot paper?

1tisILeClerc · 11/09/2018 22:19

As Focus says is what I believe is the case.
If it were to come to a delay for another vote or election I would expect the EU will demand that the question is unambiguous and with a suitably high threshold to prevent further messing about.

Dodie66 · 11/09/2018 22:19

They were talking about another referendum on the news recently and said that there is not enough time to get one in before the leaving date at the end of March. There has to be legislation put in place to have one and it would take too long to do that

Southwestten · 11/09/2018 22:24

What would be on the ballot paper?

I would like to know this.
Can referendum ballot papers have several options or are voters just asked yes or no?

DullPortraits · 11/09/2018 22:32

The EU want us to stay though so if there was a chance we would vote to remain they would allow the time for a second vote.

Re the peoples vote: The ballot would likely cover the choice of 1) remain in the eu. 2) leave on terms agreed/ with no deal
(whichever is applicable to the outcome of negotiations)

We cant just have a second referendum as we would be voting for exactly the same as last time 1) remain 2) leave but no one knows what leave will mean.

bellinisurge · 11/09/2018 22:37

Referendum can only be yes or no. If it's a referendum on any deal, I'd have to say no because I didn't want to leave in the first place. Which puts me in bed with Hard Brexiteers who'll vote no because the deal doesn't include unicorns. Urgh.

MrsFogi · 11/09/2018 22:38

Too late to keep all the business that is now being moved. Businesses are not waiting until the last minute to make plans - they are moving various functions etc to other EU countries (from what I have seen they have moved up several gears in doing this over the summer).

missmoon · 11/09/2018 22:44

Referendum can only be yes or no.

There’s no reason why this needs to be the case, Parliament is sovereign and can design any kind of referendum it likes.

DullPortraits · 11/09/2018 22:49

Fair enough..

Peoples vote ballot:

Do you wish to leave the Eu on the terms we have set? / with no deal?

Yes

No

Personally I still think the outcome would be to leave even with a no deal consequence.

bellinisurge · 11/09/2018 22:50

Trouble is @missmoon , it has to be approved by the Electoral Commission as being fair and clear and not loaded with bias. Otherwise it's not allowed. Remember the hoohaa over the wording of the Scotland referendum and the Brexit referendum.
People claim not to have understood what they were voting for with the Brexit vote. Can't think what question there would be now.

Artesia · 11/09/2018 22:55

I don’t understand how this would work- if the EU do (as PP said) want us to stay, and knew there was going to be a second referendum on the terms of the deal, it would be in their interests to make the deal as poor as possible to ensure the British electorate would reject it?

Ihaventgottimeforthis · 11/09/2018 23:05

I’m glad it’s not just me who’s confused. I really don’t see how we can deliver a second referendum- it would be an impossible campaign to try to communicate whatever shambles of a Deal we come up with, and the other choice probably will be Leave with no deal, rather than Remain after all. It’s a mess.
Peoples Vote is a nice idea, a diversion, but it’s false hope. It can’t give us what we want, a reversal of Brexit.
Is it just a sop to appease the masses and for Pro Remain campaigners to say ‘well at least we tried’ when they knew it was doomed from the start?

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Ihaventgottimeforthis · 11/09/2018 23:09

SacreBleu if by some chance we were allowed to reverse the notification do you think the EU27 will let us back on previous terms, or will it be Schengen, Euro, no special conditions for us anymore?

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walkingtheplank · 11/09/2018 23:09

Brexit is going to happen. Article 50 has been triggered. That's it.
We either leave with a deal or no deal. No one will be happy with said deal as everyone wants to be able to have their cake and eat it.
The People had their vote in June of last year.

1tisILeClerc · 11/09/2018 23:15

Until literally the last minute we could remain with the terms we have at the moment as we haven't actually left yet. One minute past and the terms disappear.
I believe this to be the case but may be incorrect.

DullPortraits · 11/09/2018 23:18

I agree there likely wont be a peoples vote.

Even though technically we have got no where in negotiations the whole thing has come too far to turn back now.

We will leave with no deal or a really shit deal Sad

Ihaventgottimeforthis · 11/09/2018 23:20

I’m not sure about that LeClerc.
I don’t know if there is a mechanism or legislation to stop Article 50, even if the government had the guts or the motivation to do so.

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Parker231 · 11/09/2018 23:27

We can’t have another vote - we’ve had one. How many times can we have a vote, to get to a point everyone is happy? It’s not the best of three. TM has said there won’t be another referendum.

We’ll leave next year with or without a deal.

1tisILeClerc · 11/09/2018 23:32

Article 50 was drafted by Lord Kerr (English).
The text below stated earlier that as he was a politician rather than a lawyer the article was not as tightly defined as it should have been, so leaving an element of doubt.

{Prime minister Theresa May and her government have not publicly acknowledged that there is a possibility of reversing Brexit. The only inkling has come from Jessica Simor, a lawyer citing two unnamed sources, who has said May has received information that says Article 50 can be reversed and if done before March 29, 2019, the UK can remain in the EU under the same terms.}
It is probably POSSIBLE but not necessarily easy, but it is mostly a political decision so could probably be negotiated.

Ihaventgottimeforthis · 11/09/2018 23:43

Parker231 theoretically we could have as many votes as we wanted, that’s what a democracy is. The question would be quite different now to 2016.
I just don’t think there’s the time, the legislation or the will.
The government have cocked this up massively and we will all pay the price.

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