Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

For example see this:

Heidi Allen @ heidiallen75
For the avoidance of doubt, I’ll back the PM to push her Chequers proposals as far as she can, but if unsuccessful and we are faced with no deal, I’ll be backing #PeoplesVote

Beth Rugby @bethrigby
By my count, six Tory MPs now backing #peoplesvote; Guto Bebb, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Justine Greening and Philip Lee.

No one unsurprising there but early days...

I don't care how many Tory MPs back the People's Vote - it's which Lobby they go through when the Division bell sounds which matters.

If we were to have a People's Vote they would have to think mighty carefully about how they phrased the question(s), and drew up strict rules as to whether it was binding or not. They would also need to legislate to stop false promises being made. I can't see this last think happening in the near future, although it may come in the end.

Good explanation of Sweden election results. 200 000 Swedish ex pats votes could be critical. Refreshing to see a country with an informed, pragmatic and nuanced approach to media and democracy.
www.thelocal.se/20180910/what-next-for-sweden-after-election-nailbiter?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

According the english speaking media here, the nazis won.

Place Mat King

I wonder just how the vote for May's Chequer's plan will play out? Some will be against it because it doesn't go nearly far enough, some will vote against because it goes too far. It's dead anyway, so what is the point?

Constitutional chaos enables a crash out. Doesn't the Repeal Act enable a minister to choose the time of crashing out?

woman The sociopathic Uk media oligarchs celebrating 3rd place for their fascist chums
They big it up, to try to create a bandwagon effect, especially in the UK

Must be frustrating, that it is (currently) no longer acceptable to editorialise

"Hurrah for the Blackshirts"

Mushrooms. bigchoc.

Independent doing a live blog today, don't know if it's cos of the debate or they have a theory today is going to be extra news worthy day.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-politics-live-updates-boris-johnson-brexit-conservatives-theresa-may-chequers-labour-baker-latest-a8530536.html

Thanks woman if any one is going to any protests or marches have a good old scream and chant for me! Gutted I can't make one. Just everyone knowing DP and people like him exist is a start, few months back disabled and sick people were dismissed with a wave of a hand and "it'll fine". Even people who vote leave are started to listen....in small amounts

Boiling frog, woman

Is that a preppers recipe?

💐

'Freedom for frogs' party here, we are being oppressed!

As a prepper, boiling frog sounds like a hard one to sell to the family. As a British citizen, boiling frog sounds exactly like what's happening.
Off to put the kettle on .

Thanks for the new thread, RTB!

(This weekend I was at the Great Northern Stop Brexit conference, excellent speakers and plenty of food for thought - have a look on Twitter #BrexitNorth for summaries)

I cast a Swedish expat vote (and it certainly wasn't for SD)

I think the more profound impact on Swedish politics is how anti-immigration sentiment has moved into the political mainstream. Two years ago, it was taboo to suggest hundreds of thousands of people immigrating in one year could be anything other than good. Now, the consensus has shifted (and remember Sweden is a country of consensus), so it's acceptable to talk about immigration and, sadly, to be much more racist in mainstream politics.

Because it was seen as beyond the pale to question immigration, there wasn't a healthy debate when we needed to have one – and now we're stuck with the Swedish Democrats and the sort of political climate Denmark and Norway have had. This has a lot to do with the way Sweden works – the consensus – so I wouldn't necessarily see it as a harbinger for other countries.

Now, excuse me while I weep at the SD statistics in my hometown... although here's an interesting thing for you. One can see the breakdown by locality, so down to less than 1000 votes.

The town voted the social democrats top, both the wealthier and the poorer parts (where most immigrants live - remember the segregated housing market), with SD coming in second or third. The wealthier the area, the more voted for the moderates instead of SD.

In the surrounding villages, any industrial clusters voted social democrats while SD comes in on top elsewhere. This would be where there aren't that many immigrants...

Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson2
Despite huffing and puffing, Tory MPs will support any deal the PM secures. The priority is to get UK out of EU. Voting against is too risky. Once A50 is done, they can impose their will: leadership change, Canada "FTA" etc. Meanwhile, 2-3 months of tedium.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Agree. Especially if the final vote is Chequers v 2nd referendum, which may be Labour’s position by Dec/Jan. May’s hand a bit stronger than it looks.

This is actually why the Tory MP's line on the People's Vote is important.

You have Tory MPs hell bent on No Deal no matter what. But they are small in number. You then have a bunch saying No Deal but are just full of hot air. Then the majority of Tory MPs are silently shitting themselves, and whilst there is a split between those who support chequerers and those who don't, this is ultimately the score.

The pro-EU Rebel Tory MPs who are now pro-people's vote are pushing the line on this hardest. But yes I do think they would go with the PM ultimately if there was a deal. Heidi Allen's tweet is the most revealling on that.

Boris Johnson's comments at the weekend are also reflective of this. He's spelling it out before hand, knowing that this is what will happen. Because it works for his leadership bid.

Personally, I'm not terribly keen on a People's vote. But I do see the importance in the campaign for one.

Aren't there threads on Mumsnet which are positive about Brexit? (I don't know - I don't venture there...) Better show them this (but I think they'll stay positive):

I can’t promise life will be rosy after Brexit, says Liam Fox

Leaving the European Union would not guarantee a rosy economic future for the UK, the international trade secretary Liam Fox has admitted.

In a frank assessment of Britain’s prospects Dr Fox said that fellow Brexiteers needed to beware of succumbing to “irrational positivity".

He said that Brexit offered opportunities but the UK would still be subjected to “buffeting pressures in the global economy” that the government would not be able to control.

Dr Fox’s remarks will be seen as a rebuke to Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, who has talked repeatedly of a “glorious vision” for the future of a Britain free from interference from Brussels.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-cant-promise-life-will-be-rosy-after-brexit-says-fox-b22w97jt7

Two of the greatest genuine believers and drivers in our exit path are:

• Rees Mogg- Who says we may see some benefits but admits this will be in 50 years time at the earliest.

• Disgraced former Defence secretary etc Fox- Who admits we are embarking upon a course of action that it is irrational to be positive about.

Hey ho -and on we go...

Red, when he says Meanwhile, 2-3 months of tedium, do you think he means food and medicine shortages, grounded flights, civil unrest, M20 a lorry park etc?
One way to describe it, I suppose.

And by the way, when they say 'civil unrest', it sounds very - well - civil.
They should say RIOTS. And lawlessness. Say it like it is.

re supporting May's "deal":
that will have to move quite a way on from Chequers, which is still unacceptable cherry-picking to the EU

Priority: She needs to accept the NI backstop,
after which both sides could fudge some form of words for the future trade framework, which would not bind a UK PM and hence could get through the HoC.
I'm sure Barnier has a helpful draft or two.

The main thing is to get a WA, which would bring a transition period and time for the UK govt to negotiate with EU and non-EU countries & bodies,
in order to sort out aviation and certification of British exports

The comment a lecturer made 30 years ago (about Sir Clive Sinclair) seems a perfect fit for Brexit ...

It's a little like ordering a coat hanger and cigarette lighter for £5, and getting a bent nail and red headed match back

That's Brexit, in a nutshell. We can't even have the de luxe version. We're going to get a bargain basement Brexit, with no air-con (which is ironic on so many levels), manual windows, 1 speed wipers with a squeezy pump on the dashboard for the washers, and a radio that only picks up AM.

It's the Arthur Daley Brexit special. Bought to you by the Tories.

Even Brexiteers are realising they've been sold a pup.

I had a vague fantasy last night, of conflating the climax of "The Godfather" with real life, and Farage, Johnson, Gove, and Fox all being taken out at the same time, as Elgar plays at the proms.

The main thing is to get a WA

The only thing, I think.

I think a lot of people have missed point that if there's no agreement by March 29th, that's it. No more taking. We're then into a no-deal Brexit, where everything has to be agreed in one go. No itsy-bitsy chats over this, or that. Still no cherry picking, but a process which will either take years (as the UK limps along in "get home mode") or a simple sign-up to everything on offer with all the attached conditions.

But I am still reading guff about how the Germans [car manufacturers] need us more than we need them.