Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

Useful summary of why the Tories - and Labour - are stumped & trapped on Brexit:

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

there is no way of undertaking Brexit – and certainly not hard Brexit, in its original meaning –
which does not do a level of damage to the economy and also to the politics of Northern Ireland
that no democratic government could get away with.

Hence

when the government try to find a relatively less economically damaging form of Brexit, proponents of hard Brexit revolt;

when hard Brexiters push towards an FTA or even no deal, the economic damage implied causes pragmatic politicians and voters to recoil.

It is that basic, irreconcilable contradiction which structures the current British politics of Brexit.

In fact, the way he gained power was prescient for brexit. He has great marketing skills, and could sell himself well. The party voted him in on the basis of his sales job, but didn't realise the danger of superficiality. He said subsequently that he was usually 'lucky', I'm sure that he thought the referendum roll of the dice would see his luck continue.
He and the tories, didn't think it through.

woman That speech and its impact on party members were a surprise to the world

However, it was carefully planned and rehearsed by Cameron.
He actually worked hard on that

whereas DD was lazy and didn't bother to make the effort - see a pattern with him ! - because he thought the Tory faithful would swoon before an ex-SAS officer.

Cameron is also much clever than DD and knows more (not difficult)

So that's not an accident:
the cleverer candidate who bothered to plan & work, beat the thicko who didn't

The best candidate wrt knowledge of the economy, trade, Europe, the world etc was Kenneth Clark,
but he couldn't get through the first rounds of MPs voting

• partlt because he hadn't worked at building up relationships with the younger generation of MPs He had never even spoken with most of them; he lost touch

I'm over on the Brexit Arms thread spouting ridiculousness and waving my pom-poms because I'm now at the laugh-or-cry stage with the whole damn thing...but I lurk constantly on here

I love this thread.

Ahaaaaa! He fooled me too! I thought he was a relatively wide eyed innocent.

DD also fooled many people, who assumed an ex-SAS (reserve) officer couldn't be thick and would be able to plan.

Shame his former SAS colleagues didn't leak the circular firing squad and other gems much earlier !

DD wasn't let down by poor PR skills:
he genuinely has nothing but the SAS macho image to offer

His Leave former chum Dominic Cummings summed him up:
"thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus”.

TUC voted overwhelmingly today in favour of 2nd ref being an option if negs fail

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/10/boris-johnson-increases-pressure-on-may-by-urging-tories-to-rule-out-tax-increases-politics-live

fennel yes! That's the vibe of it completely, oddly enough its really cheered me up read stopped me going completely batshit your pom poms are fabulous btw

mrs Spam-face Dave? Noted

MrsR8 He allegedly poked a dead pig's head
Not surprising now that Boris's antics haven't raised a Tory eyebrow.

They switched over from John Major's puritanical "back to basics" (while he was shagging Edwina Currie)
to extreme social liberalism - for themselves.

For anyone on benefits, very different standards required, of course

Sky News this afternoon did a piece in its "Brexit Forensic" series about the hard border between Germany and Switzerland, pointing out that it was by no means "frictionless"

"Brexit Forensics" video here:

The comments below are (or not, depending on your point of view ): the usual mix of people claiming that this is "Project Fear" (even though this is what happens now )/Sky propaganda /sticking their head in the sand/fingers in their ears singing "Lalalalalala"/complaining about "experts" and those grateful that at least here is some realism.

rebel The current negotiations are expected to drag on until late November
Then that's it.
There is no time after that for a 2nd ref, certainly not one that basically asks if the Uk should reopen negotiations

Also, a referendum takes much longer to organise - e.g. official formulation of the question - than the 4 weeks minimum for a GE, because referenda are not a normal part of the UK electoral process.

The default to A50 is no deal.
Nobody needs to vote for no deal - it just happens automatically if time runs out and there is no WA

Whatever UK govt we have must sign the WA, with the NI backstop, to avoid the cliff edge on 30 March 2019
Or cancel Brexit.
Without a referendum

The EU would not reopen negotiations in 2019, or extend A50, unless UK govt policy is expected to change sufficiently for either the WA or revoking A50

imo, the only faint chance of a ref is if May is ousted after the Party Conference in early October,
the Tory govt disintegrates into (even deeper) shambles
and the moderates of all parties unite early enough to force one.

My hope is that May, or whoever is PM, blinks at the last moment, just before Xmas
and signs the WA
in time for it to be ratified by the E27 and EP

in time for it to be ratified by the E27 and EP

Which is not a given.

And the harder no-deal looks like being, the greater the temptation for anyone with a grudge (which makes this close to "Murder on the Orient Express" ) to hold out unless they get some loving.

Spain and Gibraltar spring immediately to mind. That's if the UK hasn't already ceded Gibraltar back to Spain beforehand. I'm guessing that's possible with the Henry VIII powers ?

R North demolished the Switzerland "frictionless" border - as pushed by Tory MEP Daniel Hannan in particular:

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86850 (from 30 April)

What Hannan has relied on is an attractive picture (top) of a border crossing from Switzerland to France in the Hautes-Savoie department.
With that as his backdrop, he then tells us: "I cross the EU’s border with Switzerland every month", then claiming, "Not that I’d notice if I didn’t know it was there".

Hannan, though, is one of those MEPs who, although he gets paid the full scheduled airline fare to Strasbourg, opts to take the cheap, EasyJet flight from Gatwick to Basel airport, there being collected by a free luxury bus and taken into Strasbourg.
That way he can pocket over £500 every time he attends the parliament, adding and extra £200 or so to his profits, compared with taking the direct flight to Strasbourg.

Now the thing is that Basel airport is actually Basel-Mulhouse international airport, which is the French side of the border.
He doesn't go into Switzerland at all.
If he did, when he was driven across the border, he would certainly know it was there.
The Basel customs post is pictured above.

The border crossing used for his illustration is more than 250 miles from Strasbourg, on the other side of Switzerland.
To travel to travel to France, you have to drive south-southwest, away from Strasbourg.
The picture conveys a lie.

Photos of Swiss border with Customs etc for goods:

DG If the WA is basically as the draft, without watering down re NI border, or otherwise going over EU red lines, then I would be astonished if the EU don't pass it, because

• Barnier keeps in close touch with E27 govts, especially those with a keen interest, which includes Spain

• The WA would only require QMV of the E27 heads of govt and a majority in the EP.
  The trade framework won't be enough to count as a trade deal, which would indeed have required unanimity from the E27 national & regional Parliaments.

BUT
If the Uk insists Barnier presents a WA with e.g. a watered down Ni backstop - I doubt he would ever agree to do this - then both the EP and the E27 heads of govt would reject it

Not surprising now that Boris's antics haven't raised a Tory eyebrow.

As my late DF said when some Tory Minister was caught shagging someone else's wife: two houses, two cars, two wives, double standards. So very true.

Indeed BigChoc

We've flown into Geneva on a number of occasions to go skiing on France (yes, we're part of that middle-class privileged elite ). We've both hired cars and caught buses to get the ski resort.

You have to be very careful to exit the airport into the "correct" country: France or Switzerland. When we drove, coming back on the "French access road", we really noticed that the last section had big high fences, separating us from "Switzerland proper". It certainly didn't feel frictionless and was very definitely the sort of "hard border" that those that support the GFA if not the DUP want to avoid in Ireland

Daniel Hannan is lying being disingenouous in the extreme if he claims he's never noticed the border

If the WA is basically as the draft, without watering down re NI border, or otherwise going over EU red lines, then I would be astonished if the EU don't pass it

I mentioned that, because we all know how thick Brexiteers are, and it's fun to lay some caltrops for them in internet form, for future insurance.

I can seriously see the UK trying to wheedle a carefully curated version of the draft with some little changes, and then when it's rejected cry foul.

So I wouldn't take ratification as a given.

that's why Barnier is being so firm about precise text on NI and issues the EUI wants

• no time to renegotiate if any weasel words stop E27 approval

Sterling rises again, another distorted quote < sighs >
Sterling will fall again, after profit-taking

Barnier: "If we are realistic, we are able to reach an agreement within 6 or 8 weeks"
Financial Times: "Barnier says agreement is realistic within 6 or 8 weeks"
Forex: "Barnier says agreement within 6 weeks"
Sterling: Weeeeeeeee

I've been to the Basel crossing, thanks to a lovely Alsace holiday where we regularly popped over to Switzerland and popped to into Germany because why the hell not. That post is definitely there and very noticeable even at quiet times of day.