Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

link
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-would-plummet-in-no-deal-brexit-says-carney-csgr9j0hj

Just confronted DH over the data protection issue (he does data protection and security as part of his job). Spelling it out to him he went

"Oh yeah. Youre right. Hadn't thought of that. Oh well at least I have a job in X!"

Ffs. If he's not clocked it until its spelt out, uk is screwed.

30, 35? Either way it's gone up!

35% drop in house prices? I’d better hold off buying somewhere then. Been going backwards and forwards about whether or not to buy now. It would really be a long-term home but with everything so uncertain, don’t want to be stuck with a huge mortgage and then negative equity.

100 What is that you posted ?

35% drop in house prices? I’d better hold off buying somewhere then. Been going backwards and forwards about whether or not to buy now. It would really be a long-term home but with everything so uncertain, don’t want to be stuck with a huge mortgage and then negative equity.

Everyone is already doing that round here. It's annoying but frankly suits us for the moment just to sit tight and wait.

Jack Maidment @jrmaidment
Everything you need to know about the latest batch of no deal Brexit preparation papers: Blue passports, £5.50 to drive in the EU, shipping woes, roaming charges, gun passports and more.

Passports: Ministers confirmed there will be a wait for blue passports with the first ones not issued until late 2019.
That means even afrer March 2019 people will get burgundy ones.
But the EU won't be mentioned on the front cover.

Passports MKII: In a no deal British citizens would have to make sure they have at least six months left on their passport before travelling in order to comply with the rules of the Schengen area.

Driving licences: May no longer be valid on their own and a permit would be needed to drive on the continent.
The permits would cost £5.50.
But there are different types which means you might need two if you were going from, say, France to Spain.

Roaming charges: A no-deal “would mean that surcharge-free roaming when you travel to the EU could no longer be guaranteed”.
But Vodafone, Three, EE and O2 have all said they have no plans to change their approach to the charges imposed when abroad.
So it might be ok.

Exports: Some goods like bicycles are currently subject to national regulations, not EU-wide rules but they can still be sold across the bloc.
In a no-deal the UK would no longer be part of “mutual recognition” scheme so would have to build stuff to EU standard for it to be sold.

Cars: It could be difficult for UK car makers to export to EU in no-deal scenario because type-approvals (which say the car is safe) issued in the UK would no longer be valid for sales or registrations on the EU market.
So UK would have to ask EU permission to sell in Europe.

Shipping: Ferries travelling between EU countries can be exempted from having to provide security information like passenger lists.
In no-deal UK companies would no longer be eligible for the exemption.
Failure to provide info = ships not allowed into EU ports.

Guns: Bit niche this. At the moment you can get what is basically a gun passport but (European Firearms Pass).
But in no-deal EFPs would no longer be available to UK residents.
Essentially taking your gun abroad would be much harder.
Again: Niche.

Space: The UK would be shut out of Copernicus, the world’s largest earth observation programme, in a no deal.
UK would not get updates about space debris and the movements of satellites.
Not ideal.

My conclusion after reading the Government's 28 no-deal technical notices:
No deal means a whole lot more bureaucracy and red tape.
Which is ironic.

amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/sep/13/gchq-data-collection-violated-human-rights-strasbourg-court-rules?__twitter_impression=true
GCHQ data collection regime violated human rights, court rules
Surveillance system revealed by Snowden breached right to privacy, Strasbourg judges say

GCHQ’s methods for bulk interception of online communications violated privacy and failed to provide sufficient surveillance safeguards, the European court of human rights has ruled.

But the ECHR found that GCHQ’s regime for sharing sensitive digital intelligence with foreign governments was not illegal, and it explicitly confirmed that bulk interception with tighter safeguards was permissible

Mark Rutte @minpres
Just had a telephone call with PM @theresa_may in the run up to the informal #EUCO in Salzburg. Migration, internal security and Brexit are on the agenda. Concerning Brexit: the clock is ticking, maximum effort is necessary.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Interesting PM doing foreign leader calls as part of warm up for next week

Britain faces recession, a plunging pound and soaring prices in the shops after a no deal Brexit, credit ratings agency Moody's warns
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6164477/Moodys-Britain-faces-recession-plunging-pound-soaring-prices.html
The Mail!

This isn't terribly clear but this is what George Freeman said at event.

Beth Rigby @ bethrigby
Our @laurabundock is at the Times @GeorgeFreemanMP @JacobReesMogg event. This is what he said: “We are arguing about the wrong thing...let’s get the withdrawal agreement over the line...let’s leave the decision about the end state to be negotiated by Theresa May’s successor”.

About cars and approval to sell in the EU.
It wouldn’t much more difficult to sell cars there. But it would mean the cars to be checked and approved by an EU validated certification agency.
Which means that all the models currently build in the U.K. would need to be certified again.

Tbh if said car has already pass the certification now with an UK certification agency, it should also be ok to do with another EU agency wo major problems.
It IS more paperwork to do though...

We are arguing about the wrong thing

David Allen Green says this too? 'Remainers need to urgently accept it and mitigate the carnage rather than try to stop it'.

If it was just leaving the EU over a sensible time frame, I could be just about persuaded. But it's not is it. It's a fascist seizure of power from an incompetent parliament and electoral system. That's just a bit too important to give up on.

But pragmatically they may be right.

Unless the JIT issue is resolved the certification of cars is almost irrelevant. Mass manufacture will close and the 4 or 5 niche manufacturers can hike their prices as necessary as their actual production is pretty small.

hermione After no-deal, cars export to the EU - and possible other countries too - would probably be more complicated than it first seems

The current UK certification for cars to be sold in the EU would become invalid, just like planes etc

• except for some cars made by German manufacturers in the UK that iirc are already certified in the E27 not the UK.

Certification for all the individual components would also become invalid

So all cars & components currently certified in the UK - and all future models - would need to be certified again in the E27

Costs a few millions and the cars would have to be shipped there for certification, so takes a few weeks, maybe more
because it would in fact be a separate lot of certifications by different institutes.
These are the main ones, but there would be others

• Crash Safety, i.e. the different types of crash test, one vehicle for each, plus dozens of replacement parts - hoods, bumpers etc - after tests like front, side, rear, then pedestrian impact, interior head impact etc The tests and the vehicles that are written off are expensive and take probably 3 weeks to complete all of them

Note: there might be quite a wait, because these test institutes are at near full capacity already

• Electrical safety

• Recycling certs

• C02 output

• Various component tests, e.g airbags, brakes, seatbelts

Weird what David Allen Green says , I was under the impression that Remainer's had no power ? Neither the Conservatives nor Labour care what we think ? The People have spoken after all , full steam ahead for no deal Brexit , Brexit means Brexit , No deal is better than a bad deal, Strong and Stable, Be a Beleaver , sovereignty , FOM is baaaaad , nope I am running out of steam , hang on , just thought of one , 350million to the NHS.

Sorry, frumpety that's not a direct quote, (bad use of quote marks from me) he said something like that when he was on a Remainiacs programme. I think he's a 'thoughtful leaver'?..

Yes, we've only got 200+ local groups. Wonder how it compares to tory membership.

woman I agree that it is difficult to agree to "help" a hard right govt, pressured by a near-fascist internal grouping,
to avoid disaster.

For me, the absolute red line before cooperating is that the govt signs the WA, with the clear NI backstop and expat rights.
The EU would also insist on their exit bill

Without the govt giving in on these 3 prereqisites, any cooperation is pointless

The WA must include a transition period under current EU terms & conditions (except the UK loses its vote) until 31 Dec 2020.

This heads off the immediate concerns about food shortages, meds etc - but we would have to trust the UK govt to sort out permanent arrangements during transition

Of course, although the EU cn treat us the same as before, noone can force non-EU countries to keep the Uk in their EU trade agreements,
but imo there is a good chance just for the transition, because any new deal would take time anyway

If the Uk does not choose Norway + during transition, then the UK economy will plummet afterwards

Most EU businesses in that case, would have used transition to relocate / eliminate UK supply chains, so the EU would be mostly OK

Jesus. Just looked through some Twitter responses to the No Deal house price drop news.

There are still idiots who think it means they, or their children, will be buying cheap houses.

Do they not think that house prices will drop because of recession = job losses + massive, chaotic cut back of public services (including benefits, FFS)? And ....

I can't go on.

And this is after people are now pointing out that No Deal = government collapse.

Honestly. I think half of the UK is deranged.

Can someone remind me, is Parliament getting a vote on the final deal or did they vote that away?

I've actually forgotten.

I could see a possibility of the UK producing 'niche' things. Mass production (independent of others) is largely out as we will have to import many raw materials but the 'Swiss' model where they bypassed the real heavy industry but bought in supplies of say steel to make clocks and very high quality machined goods.
It is getting a bit late for this however and would require massive investment and 'rebranding' the country. The 'brain drain' to Europe and further afield would not help this either. We can't make 'lots of stuff cheaply' as China does this already and we haven't got significant sources of raw materials. We really are 'boxed in' on all sides by having chosen to leave so completely.

cat Some will probably profit: those who can risk a gamble

If I were 15 years younger, I might be waiting to snap up a few cheap houses at firesale prices
Much richer people than I, might turn £10 million into £100s of millions

Those properties will mostly come from people with mortgages, rather than the retired - who can mostly stay put
So, it may be that, among home-owners, Leavers are less likely to suffer

However, some renters, who think they have nothing to lose from all this, may be sadly proved wrong:

benefits are likely to be slashed if the economy really nose-dives - too few people paying in, too many in need
And of course, fewer will be able to afford to donate to food banks, or they will feel too insecure to risk it.

So renters with secure incomes, not on WTC or benefits, will likely benefit from cheaper housing
Others - who lose hours or entire jobs - may become homeless