Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

If anyone's interested
audioboom.com/posts/6938415-hard-brexit-here-we-come-with-guest-david-allen-green
At 36 minutes in
'Remainers are making the mistake of trying to avoid Brexit without thinking about what follows. The Association Agreement is the question to be answered.'
Looking back on it it already seems years ago, and it was made in July.

Do you think campaigners should be working for the WA? BigChoc
I know that's the game with the threat of the no deal, but food, trains ....
By 2020 everything will be lovely and we can re join of course, or ask for humanitarian aid from UN. lol.

I walked through local SE town centre for the first time in ages. So many empty vaults where Littlewoods, soon to be emptied House of Fraser used to be. This town had attracted Italians in the 50s, Pakistanis and West Indians in the 60s and East Europeans for the last decade. It's emptying out.

If John Lewis goes it'll be like a death of a royal.

Parliamentary votes are what they used to do in the olden days cat.
Isn't there a take it or leave it one planned for just before March?

Yes. That's my take, BigChoc. So, if I can see that, I can't understand why people are saying: 'I can't afford a house now, but this is going to put a house within reach!' It won't.

I suspect it will act as a funnel for a huge transfer of land and house ownership to a very small section of society. That's not good.

Anyway. I remember: yes, a vote on final deal.

So ... bear with ...
It's likely to be binary: shit deal versus no deal (and that's if we're lucky).

Labour is committed to voting down a 'bad for jobs' Brexit - and we all know pretty much any deal now will fall under that category.

I also suspect they are hoping for a Brexit bad enough to get a majority.

(A big gamble, since I suspect that ... well, we all know.)

So I suspect they'll vote against Shit Deal.

That plus the ERG people is enough to sink Shit Deal and deliver No Deal - yes?

I know that's what many on this thread suspect but ...

I would like to hear your thoughts, since no-one in MSM appears to be discussing this.

woman The WA in itself would be a big govt climbdown and probably cause the Tory civil war to come into the open and destroy the party

It might in itself cause so much political chaos that there is a last minute Remain - this may be the emergency fallback for May and Ollie Robbins, that they dare tell noone.

We know the disaster capitalists and their fascist chums want no deal;
that many Tories would prefer no deal to their party disintegrating

We also know that no deal risks shortages of meds and food

• it really shouldn't, but I have some doubts that this incompetent, arrogant govt will manage basic emergency planning

I know it is tempting to push for no deal, in the hope this would bring a quick rejoin under Article 49,
but I am not that ruthless:

It would be too risky for those depending on meds,
or the poorest in society depending that society remains functioning and solvent

A49 would also take 2-10 years

I'd rather go for a WA, then push all out in the transition period to go for Norway+ / EU Associate member
We could always rejoin from there, more easily, less to change than from a no deal disaster

I'm getting really annoyed with all this: 'What a No Deal could mean.'

Do people seriously not know? By now?

(And yet, clearly, many do not AND they don't believe it.)

cat Since the GE, Labour's policy appears to be letting the Tories destroy itself over Brexit,
rather than be seen to interfere to be to blame in any way.

A no deal, or anything but a WA and then Norway+ is likely to bring them to power for a long time

Re housing crash - there will indeed be some winners among the losers:

Someone in a good job, that they don't lose, might be in a much better place to buy a 1st home, or a better one, after the crash.
Ditto, renters can upgrade, or pay less rent for the same place

The trick is, to judge if the job is secure
and many people, especially Leavers, haven't factored in that a normally safe job can be swept away if there is a recession and another 2 million unemployed.

Also, many who sneer at those on "benefits" also don't realise what they themselves receive from the State and how much they depend on it, until it has been removed.

I just don't see that there is going to be anything other than No Deal.

I really don't.

I think Labour + a rump of the Cons will vote against Shit Deal.

I don't understand why people (outside of this thread) aren't discussing this. 😳

I think Labour + a rump of the Cons will vote against Shit Deal
Bet Mogg and The Leader have had a wee chat to firm it up, cat. You're right though, I didn't see that so clearly. Thanks.
No Deal is in.

no-one in MSM appears to be discussing this
I wish there were decent newspapers. It's like swimming in mud.

I'd rather go for a WA
Too late now, but rather than the push for that redundant people's vote, (end of Sep is the latest it could be set up?)we should push for WA?
Mad, but not as mad as no deal?

this may be the emergency fallback for May and Ollie Robbins, that they dare tell noone
Amazing if it was.

Damn.

I'm back to feeling enraged that the future and well-being of the UK was placed in the hands of an debased and debasing alliance of the criminally venal and corrupt, the completely fucking thick and the so-fucking-racist-they-can't-think.

I don't think there's going to be a WA, you know.

And May ... well, the only way she confounds expectations is by proving to be even more crap than you had previously thought possible.

She truly is a woman with no tricks up her sleeve.

I don't think there's going to be a WA, you know
Yup. The only people saying this are Patrick, you and some of us on this thread. It's the strangest of wars.

I sometimes wonder if I've missed something.

I just don't get why this isn't being discussed.

Labour have said, very clearly, again and again, what they are going to do.

They haven't wavered.

The numbers ... the Shit Deal (+WA) just can't fly.

Why is no-one saying this?

'Wading through mud' is exactly what it's like, woman.

{I don't understand why people (outside of this thread) aren't discussing this}
Probably because they are seeing the 'snippets' that make it into the press or TV and it's stuff like £5 for a driving permit (less than a gallon of petrol) and roaming charges that may or may not go up. All look like an 'OK bit of a bummer but not drastic, and gets a grumble. What many are missing is the sheet magnitude of the '£5' here and there adding up. Possible £160 extra for petrol for a year, again in itself not a biggie. The likely downturn, job losses and all the stuff in the background just isn't noticed.
Don't forget BMW, Nissan,Airbus etc although they may not have made a move yet, if there is no JIT assurance (possibly a bit of a deal done so they don't go immediately although it ought to be 'illegal') they will be out of here with massive job losses in the 'supporting' industries'. Although as I say it shouldn't happen, it is possible Mrs May in her 'pep talks' with Germany and France, who are the main manufacturers was granted a deal for the duration. They are quite specific industries and with relatively little production of those items elsewhere. When the Gov spoke with Nissan, you can't take an hour or whatever to say 'basically you are closing'.

People still seem to be talking about No Deal as May trying to scare the EU into a (Shit) Deal. But the fact is, once it gets back to Parliament, even if there is a Shit Deal, it can't get through.

People are talking about Tories not wanting to vote down a deal but they've forgotten about Labour.

I just don't see a massive rebellion against the whip at that stage. Somehow, that is being left out of the equation.

'I can't afford a house now, but this is going to put a house within reach!' It won't.

Depends on circumstances. DH and I looked at this, based on a 25% drop. It would mean difference between a small family house and a reasonably good sized one. Why? Cos we have enough equity to swallow a drop in market but have sufficient income rise to be ready to go up the ladder. The thing that's prohibitive for us in terms of affordability is linked to our multiple max.

Example: If we have £50,000 in equity and a 4 bed detached is currently £250,000 and our household income £40,000 that's 5 times our theoretical income.

If we lose thirty percent equity we still have £35,000. But the £250000 house becomes £175,000. That's 4.375 times the household income and therefore potentially easier to get a mortgage for that multiple.

In theory.

In practice it might not be the case, as lenders are likely to squeeze mortgage mulitpers and you might see interest rates shift upwards because of the risk involved.

But there is also the effect that people trapped at a lower tier in the housing market being able to move up, might take pressure off the bottom of the market by producing more liquidity (movement) in the market.

And of course cheaper houses, might just look like a bargain to buy to letters who home owners can't afford to compete with. And you've got the problem of negative equity for many too.

Some people definitely would benefit. Others would suffer massively - particularly in areas where houses are already cheaper or the market less stable or already has had particularly acute house price drops since 2008 which they haven't recovered from yet.

It really is a mixed bag, with various winners and losers. And that's the key point: winners AND losers.

Our personal position means we can wait it out till the dust settles if need be. The one thing we don't want to do is overstretch on the mortgage - we've already bought at top of market once (Though even then, that was a conscious decision as we knew a recession was about to break - unlike Gordon - and planned accordingly. That would be a massive error to do again. Too risky. We'd lose more in compound interest on the mortgage buying just before a crash than we'd lose in equity after a crash.

I think there are too many saying that'll make it cheaper who don't have a clue about interest rates, compound interest, equity or affordability based on the multipler of your household income. And tbh that ignorance led to Lloyd's and TSB and Northern Rock in the first place...

... People saying "oh well the bank wouldn't led it if I couldn't afford".

But yes Winners by default also mean losers.

cat I think that the reality is that the majority of Joe Public really aren’t interested in politics and are bored of hearing about Brexit or think it’s already happened.
The number of people who have any understanding of the complexities of leaving the EU or of the implications of No Deal is minuscule. It’s beyond depressing

It's mad, though.

The 'recession' (I, personally, use the word 'carnage') is going to be very uneven. The Southeast will be the area with more work (and more ability to support local services) - to a far, far, far greater degree than is already the case.

That will put pressure on housing in the southeast, surely? Ultimately.

I honestly think, without a massive redistribution of council tax and taxation generally (from a vastly depleted pool) some areas of the UK will become genuinely unliveable in.

I mean ... I just keep reading these comments about it bringing houses in the southeast in line with national prices, and within reach of 'the many' and I'm thinking: 'No. it's really not going to work like that.'

I'm sorry.

We all know this.

I think reading comments on Twitter has actually made me wonder if I am delusional.

Seriously, how completely thick (or venal) would you have to be to vote for this?

I don't know the UK. I just don't recognise this place.

I think the German chamber of commerce (?) effectively told their members to assume no deal and the UK is 'out' so work on continuing without the UK around 6 months ago. If a deal of some sort happens then regard it as a bonus. I feel the UK is already 'toast'.
Mr Macron is pushing France to 'bypass' the USA to make France and the EU less dependent on the USA, never mind what he might have said about Brexit.

Many Leavers just wanted less immigration
Many were just hitting back at Cameron & inequality, but are too committed / thick now to realise the ERG is worse
A few genuinely cared about EU accountability / remoteness and bringing govt nearer to the people

Hardly any did as much research before deciding to vote Brexit as they would do on buying their next car

They just believed politicans who promised them all the benefits of the EU, with none of the things they don't like
Who waved the Union Jack and promised to keep out those hordes of sinister dark-skinned people on Farage's poster.
Gullible
Foolish

They didn't understand the complexity or the possible consequences,
but won't admit that even to themselves now,

because the mistake is too horrendous to accept
Now fingers in the ears and going la la la la ...

Except of course for the 1% of Leavers who only ever looked on Brexit as an opportunity to make a killing

And this, you see, is where I get so angry with the commentariat.

Because they have a duty to wake people up and force the fingers out of ears.

People don't want to see their children hungry, sick, homeless and committing suicide.

That will force fingers from ears.

It's wholly unacceptable to be commenting on meaningless minutiae when No Deal is going to happen and people are genuinely going to suffer.

It's debased.

One person in our CLP voted against the motion asking for a People's Vote because he knew No Deal was inevitable, knew it would bring the government down, knew it would unleash economic and social chaos - but felt that this was the only way to ensure a socialist government.

So it was a risk worth taking.

For myself, I'm not sure it will bring in a socialist government. I think other scenarios are more likely.

The thing is, if those are the conversations we're having in our neck of the woods, our media definitely know this. And they have a duty to inform. They really do. This endless describing of what is, essentially, just May doing busywork, isn't journalism. It's barely writing.

UK expats may have to retake driving tests, as UK licences will no longer be valid after no deal.

Well, that's one problem I won't have - I had to give up driving several years ago, because of my sight

However, it could hammer many expats, especially older ones who took a much simpler test years ago;
difficult enough to pass a new test at 50 / 60 / 70, but in a language that many won't be fluent in ...

Also, the UK may not continue to refund health costs for Uk pensioner expats
(all EEA countries have to do this for their expats)

• partly because it wants to charge E27 expats for the NHS and partly because it is too chaotic to organise this side deal in time

and there may be problems in accessing some UK pensions ...

So the Uk may have an influx of pensioners, needing accommodation and / or medical care,
when the E27 doctors, nurses and carers are leaving
and the NHS is already stretched beyond its limits ...

FiL is already selling his EU-based home on the basis that this is likely.

cat This is why I say I'm not ruthless enough to settle for no deal: the cost to ordinary people

it might indeed destroy hard right Toryism for 20 years and reshape politics
maybe even shock the next govt into a quick Rejoin
probably discourage the far right in the EU

but at the cost of those dependent on meds,
of those who will go hungry and maybe become homeless
those E27 remaining expats and BAME citizens who may be scapegoated
those who will lose good jobs for ever and their dreams with them

Your CLP colleague is scary if he thinks the ends deserve the means and that collateral damage