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Brexit

Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

965 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2018 11:11

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
30
Peregrina · 13/09/2018 12:54

With sufficient time planes could fly again, but we need to get the Civil Aviation Authority agreements back in place with all the other countries besides the 27. With idiotic statements coming from Leasdom, if they are typical, it's no wonder no one is doing the work. I would happily see her stranded abroad somewhere next April and see her whine about it.

How the Tories could let someone like her, who appears to be totally clueless get to the last two in the Leadership contest is beyond me.

Hazardswan · 13/09/2018 12:57

Has this petition been link to here yet?

The EU referendum result must be dismissed as not fit for purpose

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/215550

GhostofFrankGrimes · 13/09/2018 12:58

www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/13/daily-mail-backs-theresa-may-brexit-plan-conservative-mps-traitors

If the BTL comments on the Mail site are anything to go by their readers are not happy Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2018 13:06

I agree with the caveat - "WIth sufficient time"

I'm certain that UK planes will fly abroad again, trucks will trundle and the Uk will trade with the EU
and the UK will replace - probably on worse terms though - the 40 or so FTAS with non-EU countries and 750 other trade deals it now shares as part of the EU.

BUT after a no deal
That might take 6 months (the minimum R North estimates for UK food exports)
and trade deals usually take 5-15 years

Within that time period, the Uk economy would meltdown and lose whole chunks to other countries forever
would lose many scientists and the other mobile mc too
and don't even think of the soaring trade deficit and National Debt ...

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2018 13:08

To clarify: 6 months is the minimum time it takes to get a 3rd country onto the EU databases, so that it can export food

Icantreachthepretzels · 13/09/2018 13:12

Well I signed the petition - thanks Hazardswan ... but we all know what the answer will be.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2018 13:15

The Torygraph headlines this as
"Ryanair boss downplays prospect of prolonged flight chaos under no deal Brexit" Hmm Grin

Not exactly !
just that he thinks no flights would be such a disaster that, within days, the govt would crawl to sign anything, just to get planes flying again

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/12/ryanair-boss-downplays-prospect-prolonged-flight-chaos-no-deal/

“I don’t believe that a no-flight scenario will last for more than a couple of days or a couple of weeks; because I think politically, it is unassailable.”

The gravity of being unable to fly would quickly become apparent to “Jacob Rees-Mogg and some of the crazier wing of the Brexiteers”

Mr O'Leary added that politicians would quickly work out a solution once they were faced with having to explain why there were no flights.

< My worry is; it might take longer than he thinks for the batshit Moggdons to give in on their red lines and it might mean a Tory internal civil war first - scary if this is while the govt is probably dealing with a civil emergency situation re shortages etc >

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 13:19

Brexit is like faith healing. If it goes wrong, we didn't have enough faith.

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 13:22

Oh, and any fall in profits is nothing to do with Brexit

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/13/dominic-raab-sparks-row-john-lewis-warning-struggling-uk-businesses/

Motheroffourdragons · 13/09/2018 13:24

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 13/09/2018 13:26

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 13:35

I'd hate to see John Lewis go down the pan as well, I do like a department store, and it is such a shame.

Be interesting to have a sweepstakes on how companies will fall, after a no deal. Top-down, or bottom-up.

My gut feeling is that the upper end of the market will feel the chill first. No real evidence for that though ...

woman11017 · 13/09/2018 13:41

@StAlbans4Europe
Compare today's article with this on successful JL, from 2013:
"...a 15.8pc increase in pre-tax profits and strong growth in like-for-like sales..."
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9916763/Staff-at-the-heart-of-the-John-Lewis-success-story.html

John Lewis profits slump 99% in 'challenging times' - www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45506322

frankiestein401 · 13/09/2018 13:41

the 'planning' notices (today's and the previous set) are actually 'information to aid planning' - yet they are being spun as evidence that we/uk gov are prepared for 'no deal'

in the absence of other evidence don't these just confirm to the eu how unprepared we are?

Motheroffourdragons · 13/09/2018 13:42

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Mrsr8 · 13/09/2018 13:44

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2018 13:48

These are the 2nd set of Uk govt notices:

www.gov.uk/government/collections/how-to-prepare-if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-with-no-deal

Again, no impressive - the few I've glanced through aren't of much practical use after no deal

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 13:48

It really is that simple. It's impossible to continue "growth" without a bigger planet. As long as we equate "growth" with "success" then we're simply going to cycle through ups and downs, as the "wealth" of the planet sloshes around.

Human population can't continue growing at any rate (not that this is a good place to have that thought).

If the population is growing, but resources remain the same, or grow at a slower rate, then is it really so hard to work out why people have got less today than a generation ago ?

As a 12 year old, I was taught the name "Malthus" at school. Does anyone know if todays 12 years olds are ?

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 13:52

I'm sure I caught a glimpse of a headline that the latest crap (future imperfect participle of the noun "crop") of notices had a warning about visa requirements for travel into the EU after B-Day. But that was on a phone screen with a flaky data connection ... has anyone else seen similar ? Pretty sure I didn't imagine it.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2018 14:12

if there is a no deal , the effects obviously depend on how long it lasts until the govt / its successors cave in and sign up to whatever draft Barnier has up his sleeve.

In the meantime ...

I expect unemployment will rise, increasingly exponentially with time and having a knock-on effect on businesses those customers use.
MrsT managed an extra 2 million or so in about 3 years of her de-industrialisation policy - led by Minford, who has unfortunately risen from his coffin to walk among Brexiters.

Inflation will rise too, due to shortages
Meds including nuclear isotopes - the govt should be lynched if they don't have an adequate plan for these

Niche markets for the super-wealthy will be ok, e.g. customised luxury yachts.

Probably the luxury shops for the top 1-5 % will be ok,
maybe profits a bit lower as some highflyer customers emigrate or lose their jobs

Poundland & the most efficient of the very cheapest shops will remain, because people have to buy essentials somewhere
More highly processed junk food than ever in supermarkets, with less fresh fruit and less meat of high quality

Maybe 1 or 2 household name stores will go in both the cheaper end and mid-range food stores
e.g. one of Tesco / Sainsbo / Morrisons and either Waitrose or M&S

Of course, customers will cut right down on "discretionary / luxury" goods & services
( if people thought they were in squeezed middle before ... )

Lots of small businesses depending on such customers will go broke, e.g. hairdressers, nail places etc
So will smaller estate agents, as house prices crash
Some fast food places will disappear, as will some small chains selling electrical goods, electronics etc

Apple will be fine - they even have 2 stores in Venezuela

woman11017 · 13/09/2018 14:16

@J_amesp
No satellites, no car exports, no medicines, no food, no flights. Consequences. Consequences. Consequences.

How can they do this to us? Shock

Those who are ignoring or denying this now, are absolutely culpable; I don't care how they voted, but to do nothing now is guilt through omission.

Quietrebel · 13/09/2018 14:16

Very childish thought just popped into my head... B Day sounds like bidet... (apologies for the bad pun)

Quietrebel · 13/09/2018 14:18

Just fancied some light comic relief...

DGRossetti · 13/09/2018 14:18

B Day sounds like bidet

You know, I'm surprised it's not been coined already.

If it is, can I claim dibs ?

Quietrebel · 13/09/2018 14:19

Be my guest 😂

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