Westminstenders: Operation Yellowhammer 1q

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson is clearing the decks for a leadership challenge.

I guess that means that the Brexit we get all depends on what George, Michael and Boris decide over lunch and how good Operation Yellowhammer is.

Not sure what to make of the podcast, Red, other than that it's rising up the agenda, confirmed my opinion that the Cons were keen to make up for their history re section 28, everyone thought it would be an easy win, and the talkinghead (sorry, forgotten his name) for the Right didn't seem very up on the issues. In fact, he seemed well behind the curve.
But the fact the presenter posed it as a potentially populist issue for Right-wing Boris? That worried me.
I think the Left seriously underestimate how unpopular this is going to be as it rolls out.
And how many of us have already been alienated. That + Brexit ...
It's asking an awful lot of us for our support.
Or is gambling that Brexit will be such a car-crash, it won't matter.
But then, that assumes there won't be some other, awful, option mopping up the 'benefits' of Brexit chaos.
Oh well.

Red in the current state of political twitter, that scarcely even surprises me.

The only thing that made me laugh yesterday was when, in the midst of the whipped up outrage about the 'call off the dogs' comment, Owen Jones did, actually, call the dogs off the Canterbury MP facing a no confidence motion. And it worked. They backed down. Which was kind of ironic.

Owen Jones. No official position in Labour but so much power. And the power is that of a seeming wild outrage. Quite scary.

other than that it's rising up the agenda

But the fact the presenter posed it as a potentially populist issue for Right-wing Boris?

The two important points.

This is the culture war, and there will be pressure to either be 'with us or against us' in loyalty without scrutiny. Using identity to control people and politics.

But yes, it's rising up because there is a desire to further inflame political divisions along this fracture point.

It's about stirring up people in a popularist backlash.

It's been on the cards for some time: this is confirmation of how seriously its being taken and in which circles.

It's not a fringe issue anymore.

It certainly seems to be heading that way. I agree with you there, Red.

I did notice when Vince's big idea popped up in my email there were loads of click to sign up buttons but unusually for their correspondence no open discussion feedback boxes to enable me to write, this is a terrible idea look what happened to Labour. I have to send of for log in details so I can suggest that an open free for all hasn't been great in other parties so how about we don't copy a failed idea.

Someone I know who's had a proper read of the full document on Vince proposal seems to think there's some decent safeguards in there regarding not repeating what happened with Labour.

However I've not read it, nor do I have the ability to function enough to do so right now, so I have no idea whether that is true.

That said, I'm always suspicious of things when they try to circumvent the normal processes. Which this proposal seems to be doing.

Robert Peston: Tory Brexiters openly plot coup against Theresa May

http://www.itv.com/news/2018-09-11/tory-brexiters-openly-plot-coup-against-theresa-may/

I am just going to let this speak for itself.

It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of Tuesday’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party.
It requires no additional comment from me, other than I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity.

“We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, < very odd ones ! > where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was:
'How best do we get rid of her?
What's the best way to use our letters?'"

Comments included:
"Everyone I know says she has to go",
"she's a disaster",
"this can't go on".

You might think that this is usual fare for us, but it's not!
Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.

The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips' sneak sitting there.
Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules.

And zero dissent.
No one, in a room of 50 Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection.
Not even a murmured pretence as good form.
Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any "sadly I've concluded formulae".
We were in the Thatcher Room to add piquancy.

But the bastards

Don't have a plan

Don't have an alternative leader.

Honestly. What a bunch of third-rate shits.

(Sorry about my language.)

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/11/police-called-labours-deselection-row-menacing-cards-placed/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Police called in over Labour's deselection row after 'menacing' cards placed in MPs' parliamentary offices

From the mirror (sorry if posted before) article about the debate regarding the rescend petition.

Shadow Brexit minister Paul Blomfield said it was not possible to credibly say whether "overspending in the region of half a million pounds definitely swung" the referendum result.

There is a case for a much wider inquiry, but as it stands at the moment the case for overturning the referendum on this basis isn't made.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-tories-say-article-50-13223394.amp?__twitter_impression=true

There is a case for a much wider inquiry, but as it stands at the moment the case for overturning the referendum on this basis isn't made.

One could certainly argue that in order for this inquiry to be able to be effective then article 50 would have to be paused. There is no point finding out that the overspending did cause a swing in the vote once brexit has happened. All brexit business should be put on hold for the duration of the inquiry.
And if the EU are not amenable to us hitting the pause button to hold our inquiry - well, then, gosh - I guess we would have to rescind article 50, in the spirit of fair play and keeping everything open and above board.

"But 60% of all voters still agree with the statement: “I no longer care how or when we leave the EU, I just want it over and done with.”

*Sixty.per.cent.
*
"If Brexit starts to look like a gruelling odyssey, dragging on for years, with real costs now and long into the future, the case for calling it off can be made [ By Boris Johnson?]– and won. But that argument hasn’t properly started yet. It is possible that all of the ideological and technical squabbling, the factional bickering that has consumed politics since the referendum, will turn out to have been only the preamble. And what it will all come down to in the end is a contest between two gut propositions that have very little to do with the EU. For leave: just get on with it. For remain: please just make it stop."

Bad news if the argument hasn't properly started yet.What if there is some kind of WA incorporating a longer extension. A gruelling odyssey indeed- fits the hubris/ nemesis/catharsis analysis a dozen threads ago. What if we are in hubris, and haven't even reached the start of nemesis yet?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/11/remainers-voters-brexiters?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

This would look like a clever Remain strategy. If it all came together....

Then it is a numbers game: can May muster enough MPs for a just-get-on-with-it Brexit bodge to outweigh the combined forces of stoppers and wreckers? And if not, what happens? That is where those running the campaign for a People’s Vote see their window. They anticipate a moment where three streams flow together: the public has re-engaged with Brexit because there is a deal; MPs say it is a bad deal; no one has a better idea. Giving the people the option to call the whole thing off then looks not only feasible, but unavoidable.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/11/remainers-voters-brexiters?CMP=ShareiOSAppOther

If there is a leadership challenge , does that automatically mean there would be a GE ?

No need for GE andwith Repel Act, they know they've got the Golden Ticket. Hence piss taking of us with that pamphlet and open rebellion against May yesterday. They are in.

No automatic GE. Remember how May become PM. She chose to have a GE but didn't need to.
Fucking hell, if there is a GE and it's some Brexit dingbat versus Corbyn, I wouldn't vote for either of them.

As a carer...

If there is a general election...

Just vote for whoever is gonna stop brexit or offer a people's vote.
Many principled reasons to spoil ballet papers but if there is a GE it will be a one voter issue so to spoil it then is a shot in the foot.

amp.theguardian.com/society/2018/sep/12/almost-all-cuts-to-social-care-in-england-are-in-the-poorest-areas?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Almost all cuts to social care in England are in the poorest areas
Study finds biggest cuts to care for families, children and the homeless are in the most economically deprived areas

Nearly all the austerity-era funding cuts to services supporting poor families have fallen in the most economically-deprived areas of England, potentially trapping them in a “downward spiral” of poverty, according to new research.

Council areas in the north and Midlands, together with a handful of local authorities in London, have shouldered 97% of the reductions in town hall spending on working age social care, looked-after children and homelessness since 2011, the study says.

Despite rising poverty, spending on disadvantaged families in the poorest 20% of English councils – mainly Labour-controlled - reduced by £278m in 2016-17 after successive years of cuts to central government grants.

By contrast the wealthiest 20% of areas, predominantly Tory-controlled and in the south-east, which were less affected by cuts to deprivation grant funding, were spending £55m more on services for poorer families by 2016-17.

The Scum "exclusive" is that May is ready to dump Chequers for a CETA+ deal
BUT
the Sun, like May, still don't seem to believe that, without the NI backstop, the EU will not accept a WA or any later trade deal
So that would mean cliff edge Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7234952/plans-dump-chequers-brexit-proposal/

DOWNING Street is drawing up secret plans to dump Theresa May’s Chequers Brexit blueprint if EU leaders reject it next week.
The Sun can reveal that work is underway to “pivot” away from the softer Brexit plan to allow the PM to escape a political disaster.