Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

LClerc Yes, the bill is definitely in Euros

• negotiations will have been in Euros only

EU payments and accounts are always in Euros only
so tough luck if you have a currency that falls over the cliff with you

The figures haven't been published officially afaik, but have almost certainly been agreed as to amounts.

The actual exit bill is €25 - 30billion, rising to about €45 billion if there is a transition period to 31 Dec 2020.
The extra amount is for payments for EU advantages / services to be received during the extra 20 months.

Any extension to the transition period would require further payments

Despite protestations the BBC has always been a weird 'gentleman's club' with it's own agenda. The cuts to the World service broadcasting in recent years are bordering on criminal if you consider what it meant to the rest of the world (not necessarily to the UK as such). In so many places it was revered as one of the most balanced sources of news, proving hope in places where the life seen by citizens was totally upturned. It was an ambassador and a steadying influence.
News does not NEED to be totally impartial. With a little experience and by 'cross checking' with other sources you get a feel for what is being reported, the old 'pinch of salt'. With the fast moving age we are in now too many do not THINK about what they are being told.
As this is largely a 'remaining' thread many will appreciate that the material that was bandied about before the vote in 2016 may not be rooted in accurate details. Life is not a continuous 'free cake' stall, there is ALWAYS a negative.
From the parliament report (above), commentators have 'spun' what was actually said. In reality Mr Barnier largely repeated what he has been saying for the last 2 or more years. Leave and there is no cake, or as an Ex president of the USA said 'read my lips'.

Thank you @BCF
I have a feeling that it had initially been a higher amount but with some negotiation quite early on it had been 'settled' to be around 40 Billion.
I suppose given the 'certainty' that the likes of the ERG are predicting a fall in the Pound, maybe the UK should pay now to avoid the fall.
Am I right that the UK will face a bill for the extra infrastructure and personnel to upgrade ports, customs and directly related activities that the EU are having to put in place as a direct result of Brexit, or is this factored into the 40 Billion?

Apparently a lot of younger people, trying to understand about the Irish border, are sharing this video.
Do the experts on here think it's a fairly accurate summary?

How Brexit could create a crisis at the Irish border

m.youtube.com/watch?v=e0xGHf8o-9k&feature=youtu.be

That's great Hester I like this one too: Irish History in 6 minutes.

@Hester
As an overview it is a good start.
The bad bit is that it barely touches of the sheer depth of feeling on both sides.
You only need to think of the 'leaver's' 'triumphalism' on Mumsnet and in wider life and no one has died or been maimed over this vote so far, apart from Jo Cox, RIP.
The video omitted Gibraltar, who hardly get a mention in any discussions.

LeClerc The EU never gave a figure for the exit bill;
they just said that a recognised accountancy method to calculate it must be mutually agreed.

The early higher amounts were wild media speculation, quoting from an early FT article.
Bigged up deliberately by those who just want to "walk away, pay nothing"
Some of the higher amounts quoted were also before considering money that the UK is entitled to receive back, such as investments in the European Central Bank.

The EU initially said their extra costs would have to be paid by the UK, but as a result of negotiations, this has now been dropped

It is not included in the exit bill or transition bill

It would not be legally collectable, as - unlike the agreed financial commitments to the budget - it was never written down anywhere that a leaving country must pay the associated costs of other members.

However, it's another reason why the E27 are quite pissed with us:
the billions they are spending to cope with the aftermath of Brexit

However, one or two EU institutions might try to sue the UK govt to claim back e.g. moving expenses

(just like foreign business investors might be able to sue for losses due to Brexit changing the regulatory environment - Hammond has reportedly budgeted billions for the latter)

In particular, the EU Medicines Agencies might sue to recover the costs of the 25-year London lease they may otherwise be lumbered with.

Thank you. Damn that 'fine print'!
My personal safety strategy in France is it is a long way from Paris and the EU is mostly an irrelevance certainly when up against wine/beer or affairs with other peoples spouses.

The video omitted Gibraltar
Gibralter isn't in Ireland.
The bad bit is that it barely touches of the sheer depth of feeling on both sides
It's great to have something with a bit less feelz. Emotional transference has debased political discourse here and in the US, quite enough thank you.

Particularly useful that it's aimed at youngsters Hester as British colonialism in Ireland and the Irish War is not, as far as I know, taught at all now.
A level History in the 1970s and did include it on the syllabus.

BBC R4 news at 11:00 was reporting this - with interview

uk.businessinsider.com/conservative-mp-guto-bebb-announced-support-for-the-peoples-vote-on-brexit-2018-9

which seems a 180degree shift from the days when we'd have Brexiteers allowed to spout shite without challenge.

Maybe Boris' big plan is to ride in on a promise of a Peoples vote ? Much as I dislike Boris on so many levels, it would be something to wish for as it might shut the equally loathsome Nadine Dorries up ...

news.sky.com/video/its-the-end-of-the-road-for-theresa-may-11492406

Much as I detest Theresa May even I feel things have gone too far if someone as useless as Nadine Dorries feels she can look down on her.

Yes Gibraltar certainly is not in Ireland however the video was part of a series about borders and about Brexit so a brief mention would have been good.
Most in mainland Britain do not suffer very deep seated mistrust of 'other sections' of their community fortunately although comments about some parts of Glasgow being 'divided' on religious grounds were made on one of these threads recently. Any attempt at 'minimising' or glossing over divisions should be avoided as you can see examples all over the world where political attempts to 'force' a line cause a lot of tension.

Also (again, predicted before the vote) Brexit is simply strangling the regular governance of the UK

inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/brexit-latest-news-focus-politicians-doomed-uk-failure/

Jess Phillips has already stated that if a woman is confronted by her abuser in court, it's because the law to change the court procedure which allows it was bumped out by Brexit - and won't be seen for at least 5 years.

What other laws will go unamended, unmade, or unrepealed ?

Any attempt at 'minimising' or glossing over divisions should be avoided as you can see examples all over the world where political attempts to 'force' a line cause a lot of tension
Why not? Most who stoke divisions have an agenda. Most sectarians are morons. It's a vicious circle of the bannons and the eejits.

btw, 1tisILeClerc where was the reference for your Israeli anecdote from a few pages back?

@woman
Since when are you the police?
My anecdote was from a radio or possibly TV 'interview' around 30 years ago, I am afraid I haven't catalogued it.
If it is verifiable references that are needed for any post we would have heard NOTHING from anyone who voted leave.
If you want 'thrill seeking', try standing in the street in ANY part of the world with a divided community and shout what you wrote in your previous post.

I see a new brexit arms has opened up. My blood pressure can't take that place ... anyone else ventured in?

I have.
It's packed with really good reasons to leave the EU, graphs, tables, verified financial predictions, all the works.....NOT.
Having decided on which drinks they like there was a couple of bits of nonsense spouted and unfortunately as it takes longer than a single 'soundbite' to contradict the nonsense it has gone beyond the short and cheerful premise of the thread.
I suggested some non Brexit jokes or whatever but they haven't materialised yet.
Still, there is a cheerful lead up to March 29th, that's nice.

It's packed with really good reasons to leave the EU, graphs, tables, verified financial predictions, all the works.....NOT.
- though really I could do with a emoticon that is just a face with it's head in it's hands - weeping.
I can't stand the cheerful denial of that place. It makes me see red.

You have to be 'pre loaded' like when you are going out for an evening out. Get half pissed BEFORE you hit the clubs.
If it is really a 'Russian conspiracy' please can Vodka be made REALLY cheap, it will be needed.
'Drink aware' (don't spill any).

The Express seems to be a little bit confused as to what brexit narrative they're pushing right now.
12 hours ago they triumphantly declared 'Brexit Victory? Barnier CRUMBLES as he signals first MAJOR EU concession to the UK.' (I'm sure this is inaccurate - but so far so express)

But then 6 hours ago they published 'Britain's Brexit Plan B' will leave mercy at EU immigration laws.' ( I haven't read to find out what our 'Plan B' is we don't have a plan A how can there be a plan B?- but I assume this is pushing readers towards supporting no deal. Interesting though - it does mention that we will cease to be a 'rule maker' which is tacitly acknowledging that, yes - we do have a lot of power in the EU currently.)

But then just one hour ago we get two headlines.
'Brexit only 200 days away and UK still has no deal and political parties on verge of ...' ( I don't know what word follows- but 'collapse' would be a good guess. This heading sounds like the Express is a bit worried about a no deal scenario - even though five hours ago, a deal would make us a 'rule taker.' )

and then ''Brexit no deal would be DISASTROUS for women' warns equality party leader.'
Now - even if we assume most of the Express readership would quite like to return to a world of women chained to the kitchen sink - phrasing it like this is pretty brazen. We must assume that even the express aren't trying to spin this one as a positive. And even if they go on to mock the person whose quote it is in the article - it is the headline that matters - and it is pretty blunt.

There's a definite sense of them admitting (since just 12 hours ago) that maybe everything isn't hunkey dorey. They're setting it up as the politicians fault (which of course it is) rather than admit that Brexit was, in and of itself, a bad idea.

But we've had rumours of Boris maybe turning to 'remain' (if he thinks it suits him) maybe there is a laying of groundwork that Brexit would have been glorious - but the politicians mucked it up - so now we can't have it. It still leaves the angry masses with a scapegoat - and Boris and the Express and no doubt the Mail get off scot free.

Now it gets serious... (although several posters have been banging on about this for almost a year on MN and other forums and the FT has often written about the issue).

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-roll-over-deals-uk-eu-counties-airline-rights-nuclear-safety-a8527731.html

A hard, no-deal Brexit does not just mean no deals with the EU - it also means no deals with anyone. Nobody. From 29th March it is hunting season with the UK as Bambi in the cross-hairs and all 150+ countries in the world as the hunters. May has already set the scene - the UK can have the same deal as it presently has with Nigeria and a few other African nations at the bargain price (to them) of £4bn. What concessions with other countries demand? How will the UK become the fantasy export powerhouse of Jonhson, Fox and Raab's dreams when there is nothing left to export and nobody willing to buy? How will the UK feed, clothe and provide medication to the population when all legal channels (for standards, prices, quotas etc and for transportation) are closed?

No I'm not the police, 1tisILeClerc just puzzled as to where that anecdote originated.

Johnson booed at cricket.
inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson-booed-by-cricket-fans-while-watching-england-v-india-at-the-oval/

Th proms might be worth a watch tonight.

Been linked already?

Women's Equality Party backing final say women weren't represented enough on both sides of the debate, women disproportionally impacted by brexit yap yap yada yada
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-womens-equality-party-sophie-walker-peoples-vote-second-referendum-a8528296.html

Brexit has Anglo-Irish relations at 30-year low, Fianna Fáil leader says

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/08/brexit-has-anglo-irish-relations-at-30-year-low-fianna-fail-leader-says