Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Parliament are debating petition ‘Rescind A50 if #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw ‘ on Monday 10th September. Very short notice but please come to ⁦*@SODEMAction*⁩ and join the protest outside Houses of Parliament to #StopBrexit #ThursdayMotivation www.facebook.com/events/307392419811621/?ti=ia …

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/08/23/as-a-remainer-vicar-i-ve-finally-found-myself-on-the-same-si

Really interesting article by a vicar on the parallels between Brexit and religion eg why trying to argue with facts is pointless

Parliament are debating petition ‘Rescind A50 if VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw ‘ on Monday 10th September.

Sorry for the cynicism, but when have petitions ever actually achieved anything ? I can't recall them ever working when I was little, and I can't say much has changed.

Case in hand is my Middle School. Parents had petitioned the council to do something to prevent the road the school was in being used as a rat run. Even after a child was killed, they were "looking into it".

You know what did work ? My DM and others sitting across the road every day for weeks (my DF was furious she got arrested).

parallels between Brexit and religion

Many people have commented that the last time the country was so split was the Reformation ....

Mrslifecrisis thank you. interesting one.

Just wanted to thank Japancat for the superb post at 13:19. I agree with every word.

Applause, thecatfromjapan. Very well said!

thecatfromjapan Fri 07-Sep-18 13:19:17

Amazing post!! Well said.

Bit annoyed at the fascists abusing the Muslim lady, so will try to make this one.

Boris making his remarks about picanninies and pillar boxes
His fans applaud, or excuse him with "oh, it's just Boris humour"

but he helps create an atmosphere which emboldens people with previously controlled xenophobia to go out and pick on whatever flavour of foreigner they dislike, or see as vulnerable enough to bully

Too many people are like toddlers in not being able to relate choices to consequences

e,g, continually voting for tax cuts and then complaining about poor NHS or other public services

They keep grabbing at the shiny promises, but instead of re-examining their choices, they then grab at popularist spivs who make even shiner unicorn promises

Many blame the EU for their JAM status, but the problems of the UK - and the USA - and caused by their own choices for a winner-takes-all society

There is no free lunch for a country
or to be exact, Britain has lost its long-running free lunch, aka Empire
and the US empire (under another name) is being taken over by China & other emerging economies.

Warning from Barnier, appearing last Monday before the HoC Exiting the EU Committee

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.html

re Question 2563:

if there is a no deal there is no more discussion.

There is no more negotiation.
It is over and each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures, and we will take them in such areas as aviation, but this does not mean mini-deals in the case of a no deal.

So do NOT assume mini-deals will happen
The EU may agree to a mini-deal on say aviation or financial services, but only for as it takes the EU to find alternatives to the UK

Or it may decide it can cope with no mini-deals at all, until the UK signs up to the 3 prerequisites - including NI and expats rights.

They won't let people in the UK die from lack of medicines - although the UK govt may cock up the distribution and delivery - but that is a hell of a long way from making deals to make the economy run smoothly.

Unless the govt massively screws up its contingency planning (not impossible), the first few weeks shouldn't be the Apocalypse

What happens to the UK economy won't be the bang of an immediate implosion, but rather a long draw-out whimper of decline

if there is a no deal there is no more discussion
Pearls before swine is so similar in German I've just realised.

Another victory for the anti Zionist armchair Alf Garnetts. Well done boys.

cat well said!

Marina should stop reading Parliament's The House magazine. Way too scary:
Pay attention, entrails-pickers: this dead government has yielded up a new sign. She is Karen Bradley, actual secretary of state for actual Northern Ireland, and she has granted an interview to Parliament’s The House magazine. “I freely admit,” Karen freely admitted, “that when I started this job, I didn’t understand some of the deep-seated and deep-rooted issues that there are in Northern Ireland. I didn’t understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa.”
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/07/karen-bradley-northern-ireland-secretary-tories?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Words fail me.

Sounds like Karen Bradley self-IDed as a NI Secretary of State, rather than being in any way capable

Barnier's answer to HoC Question 2539 is blunt & sounds exasperated with the whole UK shenanigans:

"I do not see the added value of a Brexit.
Thus far, nobody has shown the added value of Brexit to me, but that is basically what it boils down to.

You have chosen to leave the European Union, you have chosen to leave the customs union and the single market.

It is you.
It is not us;
it is you.
< rehearsal of statement to be issued after the Uk falls off the cliff >

We are not leaving the UK.
You are leaving the EU"

Are we seriously looking at a situation in which there is, permanently, no trade between UK and EU?!

No
The UK will become a 3rd country and will be treated like any other

BUT
the UK starts from Year Zero - unlike every other country in the world

So it will be a tough few months and then probably years of UK economic decline
because the UK loses not just frictionless trade with the EU, but the EU's 40 odd FTAs and 750 other deals with non-EU countries
Some businesses will leave the UK, or go broke

UK imports:
The Uk will need to import food and other essentials like meds from the EU and that trade won't stop
However, it will become more expensive & delayed - so prices will rise
The ports may be logjammed, which means the UK may have to wait some weeks before it can import components & raw materials that industry - especially JIT manufacturing - needs

UK exports:
The UK will need to get itself onto the EU databanks before it can export any food - which R North says will take at least 6 months after Brexit -
and will have to negotiate with international bodies to regain its rights to certify planes, airports, pilots, ships, manufacured goods etc, before the EU - and many non-EU countries - will allow these goodss & services from the UK

Just to cheer you all up on a Friday

We are ruled by those Joyce referred to as:

"the cream of society, rich and thick"

With apologies to everyone as this has probably already been shared and I am still desperately playing catch-up on this thread. This response is too good to miss so sharing just in case.

@DavidDavisMP: "I am joining the @LeaveMnsLeave rally in Bolton as a matter of principle - to ensure Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld."

James O’Brien
@mrjamesob
Mate, you couldn’t make Brexit work during two years in actual charge of it. Waving a little flag around in Bolton is unlikely to prove more fruitful.

You’ve got to love James O’Brien...

That parliament report was an interesting read. I trust the EU have the 'divorce bill' set in Euros. This would put even more pressure on the UK to actually make Brexiting work as it would get a lot more expensive if (when?) the Pound value falls.
My braincell was starting to overheat by the time I got to the 'Mogg' question, Can anyone confirm that Mr Barnier said firmly that the (40 Billion, but exact number not cast in stone) is payable whatever, for the privileges that the UK has already had? The papers seem to suggest that Mr Raab had got a 'deal' so that this bill may be watered down or exchanged for favours (future trade deals?).
I was a bit (a lot) disappointed that the fate of the 3.5Million in UK and 1 million in Europe Expats future is not yet guaranteed in the event of no or messy deal.

Common sense works slowly and in tiny steps in these crazy times, but is worth pursuing.
The BBC has decided it doesn't need to put on climate change deniers to provide balance in the debate. I believe in the end it reacted to the clamour of disapproval about that issue. It is a public service, paid for by us, with huge reader- and listenership, so we should challenge it every time it gets it wrong.

[Fran Unsworth said:] "Manmade climate change exists: If the science proves it we should report it.” In the section warning on false balance it says: “To achieve impartiality, you do not need to include outright deniers of climate change in BBC coverage, in the same way you would not have someone denying that Manchester United won 2-0 last Saturday. The referee has spoken.”

amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/07/bbc-we-get-climate-change-coverage-wrong-too-often?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true

When their Brexit coverage isn't objective, when their interviewers presenters show bias, we should complain. You can do it online:

www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/

I agree 1tisILeClerc, the divorce bill is an interesting question.
I've always said that if the EU were to itemise clearly what the divorce bill covers, it'd be much harder for the hard Brexiters to keep saying 'walk away, don't pay'.

For example, what if it said one item was 'to cover the future pension commitments of MEPs in perpetuity - £3 billion'. (Wild guess). Difficult for Farage and other UKIP MEPs to say don't pay! (my pension).