Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

Who or what is 'the hard centre'

Nick Robinson @ bbcnickrobinson
BREAKING @vincecable will announce soon that he is standing down as @LibDems leader but not until next year according to sources. He wants rule changes to allow a non-MP to be his successor

I assume that the LibDems will have to vote for a change in Leader policy at their Conference, so what Vince Cable wants isn't necessarily what the LibDems will get.

This has all been done in secret - without membership. Lots of grassroots will be v pissed off.

*With these no confidence votes in labour MPs, I think he is on the money here - a choice between Corbyn and Boris is not one the British people would tolerate. Maybe there is the chance of a moderate centrist party - but it needs to get a move on8

Blair? i'd rather have any number of Corbyn's or even Boris's than that self serving lying bastard.

Who or what is 'the hard centre'
A joke...

The Lib Dem rule changes need to be voted on by members at conference, although there is talk of a special conference to consider the proposals, so it’s very much not a done deal. Also, very much not done in secret, I’ve known about this for months, and I’m not on the inside track. I suspect there is support for the non-MP as leader proposal, but not for the associate membership one. Just to add that this is modelled on the Canadian Liberals, and their winning strategy that led to Justin Trudeau’s victory (from a distant third place).

Rumour is that Layla Moran is the hot favourite for new leader. I think she’s fantastic, but possibly too “new” as an MP? Jo Swinson being the other option (but she was in the coalition government).

Weren't there rumours about the possible leader being Gina Miller?

That breaking news isn't news or breaking, except for maybe an official confirmation of what's been said for ages.

IIRC Jo Swinson said she was interested in being party leader but not at the last leadership election, which is why she is in the deputy role. I wonder if she is interested in it for next year.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/06/brexit-negotiators-risk-sleepwalking-into-crisis-warns-ivan-rogers?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Brexit negotiators risk 'sleepwalking into crisis' – Ivan Rogers

Former UK ambassador to the EU uses speech in Dublin to urge leaders to move past technocratic approach to Brexit talks

pretzels No, financial experts predict that Brexit will NOT destroy the City as a world financial centre, at least not in the near future
It has some unique talents and infrastructure which institutions will be loathe to lose and find difficult to replace

Profits & growth will be down, but that's a different matter
Of course, experts could be wrong, but that's their consensus - and not just Brexiters, by any means.

A large part of the City deals with non-EU countries anyway:
the US, Asia, Middle East, Commonwealth etc and of cause the UK itself

The City has been moving to protect its EU trade e.g. by moving small offices to the E27, but City estimates of job losses are still only a very small % of the current total.

Much of the services for the E27 businesses etc can't be replaced quickly, so it would be done over some years and the City might well be able to replace most of the business from growth elsewhere

BUT
Especially combined with Brexit, a few big bombs could cause the major institutions to pull out and indeed destroy the City as a world finanical centre

That breaking news isn't news or breaking, except for maybe an official confirmation of what's been said for ages.
I feel I should point out my snarkiness was based at Nick Robinson and not red

Lets take back control of our borders:

steve hawkes @steve_hawkes
EXCL Tory Eurosceptics suggest allowing EU border staff into U.K. ports post Brexit to solve Irish logjam
www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/7196854/eu-officials-police-british-ports/

Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
Well it’s already been offered to the Spanish for Gibraltar airport......

OhLook, no offence taken. I know what you meant.

Labour moderates long for a Tory victory

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/labour-moderates-long-for-a-tory-victory-gvnskkfss?

Spineless MPs are secretly hoping Mrs May’s successor will be a One Nation Conservative who can destroy Corbyn

< That's not Boris. Get some spine and save your own party >

And I would definitely rather have Blair running the country than either of those two

...a man who has the blood of 1000s on his hands? who introduced uni fee's? who put the NHS in hock to billions with PFI, who built little social housing..... no thanks.

Anyway, Blair isn't talking sense, as we ve got a middle of the road party..... polling at historic lows & both Brown and Milliband were centralist leaders of Labour and both lost to the Tory party.

If the Brexit vote teaches us only one thing, it is that people are fed up with centralist parties and their hollow promises.
As someone said to me recently "we ve been in the EU and seen the rich get richer, loss of worker rights & a collapse in public services, why would i want to stay in this club that is apparently so good for me?"

Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson
It might not be possible to take back control of the Labour Party Tony Blair tells me in first of a new season of my Political Thinking podcasts 🎧 Download here... bbc.in/2hRpvmA Listen on iTunes: apple.co/2Dd75oF

Election Data @election_data
I've got a lot to say on this given I've repeatedly polled the membership but it draws me away from other work.

Mr Blair says you've got to distinguish between an individual choice to stay with Labour based on tribal loyalty to the party and "more pertinent questions"....and then expands on those "more pertinent" points. However....

....it's the tribal loyalty angle which is most often overlooked. I know because I've tested it in polling. If you skirt past tribal loyalties because you believe there are obvious moral reasons not to stay in Labour you're in danger of missing the point.

The most powerful reason for people to vote Labour is that they've voted Labour before. It's a hugely powerful emotional trigger in voters, and one which was played out in 2017. And it was the ONLY emotional trigger which was as powerful as their views of Mr Corbyn

The same is true of the PLP and many Labour members. Their "tribal" loyalty to the party is extremely powerful and much more powerful than Mr Blair appears willing to accept. If he continues to appeal to rationality I believe he's likely to miss this completely. And.....

....many people mock tribal loyalty but it's often a lived experience. People aren't normally irrationally loyal. It's often been the result of reciprocal ties going back many decades, across families and generations. It's something Labour candidates tapped into in 2017.

So my advice would be to come to peace with tribal loyalty rather than brush past it in order to discuss "more pertinent questions". That's a very common mistake in politics.

Tribal loyalty was more important in 2017 than the NHS. Or, should I say, it was better at moving people to vote Labour. Labour's view on the NHS is, for the most part, already baked in. Tribal loyalty was more important as a trigger than any other issue with the exception of

their views of Mr Corbyn, which was on a par in terms of intensity. However a combination of people putting that to one side and the Conservatives reminding them how bad they are meant that Labour performed extremely well. It wasn't JUST that of course but

"tribal loyalty to Labour vs their views of Mr Corbyn" was a significant factor, and continues to be. Just look at the polling. People don't listen to Nick Robinson on Radio 4 (sorry Nick!) outside the square mile of Westminster.

If the Brexit vote teaches us only one thing, it is that people are fed up with centralist parties and their hollow promises.

Its not the thing that I take from it...

...its a disconnect from reality thats the problem.

{ "we ve been in the EU and seen the rich get richer, loss of worker rights & a collapse in public services, why would i want to stay in this club that is apparently so good for me?"}
Unfortunately those items are not legislated by the EU but are directly controlled by the Sovereign UK Government.
Being 'in or out' is not relevant.

mother yes, it's a heart breaking video. Next to watch is how 'UK Unity' and Bannon are preparing for the next stage.
Hazardswan and lala , I think the Gina Miller thread (which disappeared) said that you had both won a copy of her book?

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations?__twitter_impression=true

From the article:

Now, interviews with several people familiar with Survation’s operations show that in addition to measuring public opinion, the firm’s executives also helped shape it--for the Brexit campaign, UKIP and Farage through the related company under scrutiny.

Survation, acting through an entity called “Constituency Polling Ltd.,” embedded and managed political operatives, primarily on behalf of Leave.EU, in a call center run out of the Bristol offices of Banks’s company, Eldon Insurance, according to people involved, including Banks. The businessman poured at least 12 million pounds into the pro-Brexit campaign and also supported UKIP.

Despite the inclusion of the word “polling” in its name, people involved in Constituency Polling’s call centers described its operations as voter targeting and political marketing. Workers were paid to ask a series of questions from a script in order to gather data identifying sympathetic voters who later could be targeted for get-out-the-vote campaigns or other political operations, according to those involved.

It also embedded call-center staff, doing similar work, inside UKIP’s former London offices, according to those involved, who also said Survation executives directed and oversaw Constituency Polling work for both UKIP and Leave.EU.

The UK's inequality and rundown of the welfare state are due to the choice made by (around 40%) of the voters who elect politicians to carry out these policies

and the apathetic citizens who just let the politicians get on with transfering wealth to the rich from everyone else.

The EU did not order the UK e.g.

to keep slashing services to give tax cuts to the better off
to keep tenants rights so low
to encourage ZHC and discoiurage trade unions and workers' rights
to encourage a bloated financial sector at the expense of UK manufacturing
to spend 100 billion on Trident instead of the Welfare State
to waste many billions more on pointless wars as the USA"s poodle, that created conditions for the refugee crisis

Those EU countries who made different choices, primarily to have lower inequlity, have a better quality of life, better services, more security