Westministenders: Back to School

[RedToothBrush]

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

DGRossetti It’s a step in the right direction, visa based jobs scheme, nobody wants to stop casual labour from were ever,

Nobody ???

I bet that is the last thing less well off who voted leave wanted. As I recall they were heavily featured complaining they couldn't get jobs because the foreigners were taking them. I'm sure they are thrilled, although I doubt it'll dawn on them they've been had.

It is a scheme that could have been implemented decades ago.

Hmmm. I must try and get a visa to work in Russia cleaning toilets, at least the work is indoors, unlike backbreaking work pulling vegetables in cold wet Northern Britain.

Leaders Office @commonsleader
There will be one Government oral statement in the @HouseofCommons today:

Karen Bradley - Update on UK Government effort to restore the Northern Ireland Executive

Is it possible that the DUP are starting to think having power at Westminster, but not in NI on the ground, isn't working for them?

DGRossetti I obviously can’t speak for everybody, you will never please 100% of people, as we can see on MN there is some funny people about

Mark Devenport @markdevenport
I’m told a statement by Karen Bradley later today on NI will be major/significant

Or are we going to direct rule!?

Sam McBride @SJAMcBride
On the biggest day of the RHI Inquiry to date, a good day to bury bad - or controversial - news?

Has the Uk government being making a lot of effort to restore the NI executive? Around six months ago didn't Dancing Queen Arlene confirm that there was zero prospect of a deal between the DUP and Sinn Fein to restore Stormont? Didn't she ask Westminster to take control?

With fruit- I wonder which countries will want to come fruit picking? It's likely to be young people. The poorest countries in Asia are North Korea, Afghanistan, Yemen , Nepal, Tajikistan, Bangladesh?

Poorest countries in Africa Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Algeria?

For once I can concede that there is an ( inadvertent?) moral plus to the Leavers' argument. Opening up work to poorer countries does have a positive dimension as long as they are treated and paid well.

However the 'you are good enough to come pick our fruit and wipe our elderly arses but not good enough to get a holiday visa let alone ever have an opportunity to stay' aspect is distasteful.

DGRossetti I obviously can’t speak for everybody, you will never please 100% of people, as we can see on MN there is some funny people about

There was plenty of reportage at the time of the vote from more rural Leave voting communities that grumbled about all the jobs going to the East Europeans and basing a lot of their vote on that. It was predicted at the time - and now seems to be coming to pass - that voting Leave would in no way help their outlook. Now instead of Eastern Europeans, it will be Western Asian (and maybe African) workers taking the jobs.

Does anyone really think for one minute that someone from Asia will apply (and pay) for a visa, just to go fruit picking? Really?

Of course not. But that's not how it works. You'll get some company that will tender for the work, get the money (lovely sterling) from the employer and just "buy" people to bring over. They won't see a penny while being fed and housed at below bargain basement prices, although some money (maybe a £ a day) will go their families. They will be treated inhumanely, brutalised and terrorised, and (conveniently) shipped back out after 4 months so no-one ever need know about them.

If you think I'm exaggerating future events, I am actually documenting past ones. Remember the cockle picker tragedy a few years back ?

This news is probably the first thing the Brexiteers have got that they wanted. Notice how it's fuck all about "sovereignty" and "taking back control", but a lot more like (further) exploiting the exploited.

For once I can concede that there is an ( inadvertent?) moral plus to the Leavers' argument. Opening up work to poorer countries does have a positive dimension as long as they are treated and paid well.

The thing is, that is the exact opposite of what Brexiteer-leavers wanted and thought they were getting. I wonder when the penny will drop ?

I have to admit, this is possibly the last chance Brexiteers might have to dispel the image they have of being dim and thick. If they realise what is happening, and that they've been had (John Lydon: Ever had the feeling you've been cheated ? ) ...

I am beginning to wonder about the UK 'strategy'.
We will start off by exiting a very beneficial trading block with whom we have considerable cultural similarities.
Now we will 'sabre rattle' China, another major possible trading partner.
Now we will 'sabre rattle' the Russians and openly declare 'cyber war' (reported in newspapers).
Relations with the USA are at best 'tenuous' or at least are not totally in accord.
Many of the Commonwealth countries we have 'pissed off' in our Colonial era so are likely to be less 'generous' in any deals.
Is there something of importance that I have missed here?

This news is probably the first thing the Brexiteers have got that they wanted

Blue. passports.

DGR do keep up!

I am beginning to wonder about the UK 'strategy'.

Currently it seems to be the exact same as happens when countries start to fail. You have contradictory actions from the various power-bases vying for supremacy behind the cloak of government.

I have no doubt that the Foreign Offices briefings are diametrically opposing Liam Foxes fiefdom ... which we already know is in open conflict with the Treasury and spreadsheet Phil.

It's not like Downfall. It is Downfall.

In other news.
Massive offshore windfarm 'opens'. Great, it is a very positive project.
It will provide some jobs into the future (IIRC 250).
Built by a Danish company and funded by Danish pension funds.
While it is good and a credit that it was a collaborative project, it is not quite 'taking back control'. Why was this not BRITISH led project?

Why was this not BRITISH led project?

I'd be surprised if we had that much expertise.

Now, deciding what colour it is, and providing an interactive experience at the visitor centre, along with artisan cakes. That we can do.

Now might be the time to get your self assessment in ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/09/06/ukgov_nodeal_plans_add_extra_weight_to_hmrc_customs_and_vat_systems/

The government's no-deal Brexit scenario has thrown another technical spanner into HMRC's works, as bosses admitted delivering the plan would put a strain on its other work.

At the same time, the final release of the new Customs Declaration System has been pushed back to March 2019, meaning the existing system will have to lumber on in parrallel. Tests to see whether it can cope with the strain are only just over halfway through.

The strain that the UK’s tax collection department is under came into stark relief during a session in front of the influential House of Commons Public Accounts Committee yesterday.

HMRC permanent secretaries Jim Harra and John Thompson were grilled on their department’s work by the MPs for about two-and-a-half hours, covering everything from biometrics to online marketplaces.

The most pressing issue is clearly how it will cope with Brexit, especially with the prospect of a no-deal scenario.

When Thompson was asked if the department could cope with the latest change, let alone any further political decisions, he said leaving without a deal would be “sub optimal” – but that didn’t mean the border wouldn’t function.

(contd)

Assume for a sec that the US is in the midst of a constitutional crisis (it is). Notice how the stores are still open, your bus completed its usual route & the game still on? That’s what makes genuine crises terrifying, bc they (co)exist for so long within our normal exp of life.

They continue to do so all up until the point that they don’t. When the news is no longer something you can turn off, when it’s on your street, at your kid’s school, in your community, it’s too late for “resistance”. Then it’s largely a matter of individual survival.

This x 100000000....it articulates something I have been feeling for a while now. Shortly after the result, I spoke to a highly intelligent senior colleague who had voted leave, much to my astonishment. Their main comment was that the vote had happened now, and the world was still turning. I thought it was incredibly naive.

lonelyplanetmum Yet again a meaningless sound bite, like most people I know couldn’t care what colour the passport is, you may of heard it from somebody but it doesn’t make it the same for everybody

In the HoC, after May had described how the Russian agents allegedly had committed their poisoning,
there was a
most unfortunate slip of the tonge by Corbyn:

"we condemn the police and security services" before correcting it to "commend"

Habit ?

For some reason the news item about replacing EU fruit pickers with other forriners so soon after the Leave politicians won on their xenophobic banner does remind me of Orwell.

Not the doublespeak of 1984, but I keep remembering Animal Farm. It's like two years ago Gove, Farage and co were getting everyone to chant "Four legs good, two legs bad". Now two years later it's become 'four legs good, two legs better'.

Obviously on the 'international stage' the UK has to trade by either making things or doing services, to generate the income needed to actually support the UK. The 'family silver' has largely been sold.
It is perfectly logical that companies relying on JIT and tariff free trade with Europe or indeed anywhere will not be announcing their intentions or if they do it will not be to the extent of change. We all know that businesses have a plan usually running many years into the future and if the future looks like 'no profit' they will do anything to get out. The UK Gov, of all flavours has proven that it cannot be trusted, and trust and a degree of certainty is absolutely essential to everyone at all levels from looking after your child to running a multinational company.
As I mentioned earlier about Russia and China, it only takes a small accident, a failure of communication and diplomacy for things to go very horribly wrong.

*Rosstac
*
Its ' may have' rather than ' may of' .

Sorry if I'm being rude, but it's one of my pet hates when the DC confuse 'have' and 'of'.

Now here's an idea ...

lonelyplanetmum It’s funny that my pet hates are people that have to pick people up stuff like that, sorry that’s my lack of education ( left school 15 ) and my dyslexia

@DGR.
Unless the HMRC and Customs are as slick as number plate recognition for the trucks so they can almost be waived through (largely as now) then import/export will be nigh impossible on a continuous basis.
An extra 5 minutes per truck looking at a 'Windows 95' database simply won't be good enough.