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Brexit

Westministenders: Back to School

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/08/2018 13:01

No, I'm not referring to the start of a new parliamentary season, I'm referring to the number of politicians who need to literally go back to school. Its embarassing, and worrying.

Anyway, here is a slightly lengthy, end summer news round up for you.

The Brexit Headlines
It seems to be Cabinet Office policy to push for the Chequers Deal or for No Deal Even though Macron has very firm, plainly and clearly said "non" in no uncertain terms. Its significant because its come from the official Brexit Department and not from a sweating Dominic Raab at Dexeu.

He has however delivered the first batch of the Brexit Untechnical Papers which are supposed to advise what to do in the event of No Deal. In reality this is a PR exercise, which makes the assumption that some sort of minimual deal will have been done, rather than no deal at all, combined with a very practical plan for 'a wing and a prayer'. Which is a bit of an issue if we decide that we really are going to stick to the line that its Chequers or no deal.

These untechnical papers are ludicarious shallow, which some having the audaciency to say "plan for the news rules, but we haven't actually decided what the news rules are and we'll get back to you as soon as we've made them up". The completely skirt the entire subject of NI, saying merely, more or less "oh that one will just work itself out". Despite the untechnical papers don't include the crucial aviation one, which apparently was held back because it was regarded as 'too shambolic' which is quite the statement, if you've read any of them. Nor do they include details of the contract for hundreds of portaloos to line our motorways so that lorry drivers can still take a pee whilst they are stuck in queues for days. They might starve and no one else will have any food because all the lorries are stuck, but hell they'll be no exposure on the M20 to offend you.

Its not quite as bleak as it sounds though. The Chequers Deal is a vision of our future relationship with the EU. Its not the Withdrawal Deal. And the Withdrawal Deal (and backstop) is the thing that needs to be done in Oct / Nov. Which then will lead on to talks about the Chequers Deal. You can't talk about Chequers without having ALREADY agreed the Withdrawal. Which is very important to keep in mind as its continuely being lost in the media coverage. Could it be that all the sudden noise from the Cabinet Office, is an attempt to distract in the short term to protect the Withdrawal phrase?

Also as an alternative to Chequers, Macron is reportedly expected to propose something akin to an 'associate member' style agreement for the UK with a vision for the EU and its allies to form a series of "concentric circles", with Britain closely tied to the 27 "core" EU member states. If this sounds familiar it is. Guy Verhofstadt has been banging on about this as an idea since before Brexit. Its also a plan which has long been muted by Barnier too. It will probably go down like a lead balloon here, but there is a political will in the EU for a deal. There just isn't in the UK.

More generally in UK politics
Jeremy Corbyn has had a nice relaxing summer but after the hard upcoming weeks ahead, I think he'll still be looking forward to his holiday plans for the Autumn Break, when he visits Israel to profess he's still definitely not an anti-semite, because look he's visiting the evil Zion and talking to Jews. He will spend the next few month telling us that No Deal is a Very Bad Idea, whilst also trying to get his MPs to vote in ways that are a Very Bad Idea. Meanwhile the rest of Labour will indulge in a very public slanging match which most normal people have long since stopped caring about in anyway because they are so bored and disappointed in how far heads have been inserted up backsides.

Theresa May, has been in Africa, where she is trying to get trade deals with lots of countries we already have trade deals with through the EU. She's also in the midst of a fight with Spreadsheet Phil who has been busy telling her to butt out of the budget and realising information to undermine the 'No Deal' narrative all week. Oh and trying to persuade beg Mark Carney to stay another year at the BoE cos no one wants his job. Rees-Smug has been up to his usual English Gentleman Act where he replicates the MPs of the Victorian Era who were into fucking those from the colonies whilst stripping them for asserts, with impecable manners. Boris Johnson is looking for his next photo op where he can look zany and drop a headline grabbing offensive comment. If it winds May up, so much the better. The Tory Creche outing to Birmingham looks like its going to be a scream.

I should say something about the LDs here, so here's a tumbleweed for you.

Back to Brexit
The fishing wars have started. Michael Gove has yet to be sighted in a souwester though (give it time). The Scallop Wars are an insight into why we need a relationship with the EU. It turns out that the French are pissed because we've been using these big fuck off ships which dredge the sea bed and are a ecological disaster and haven't observed a break for a 'breeding season' this year, whilst the French are forced to do so by law. We had been observing an informal agreement where we stick to the same rules, but for some reason this year, some bright spark though it was a bad idea for us to do so. So the French have got a bit shirty in response. Gove is spitting the dummy and saying we will do something. The reality? Well what exactly can we do apart from go to the EU and use the EU courts apart from patrolling the seas with a lot of customs boats and officials we don't have? Cod Wars III here we come!

We've also announced plans for brand new white whale money pit satellite to circle solely over the UK. We aren't in need of coverage for the rest of the world, so we aren't going to waste money on flying over anywhere else who isn't prepared to help contribute financially to its construction. It is going under the draft name of 'Heliocentre'

In other news
If none of this cheers your spirits, then great news; Good Old Nige is making a come back!!! He's dead excited because he's planning his first big Nazi Leave means Leave rally in Bolton where he act out his childhood Hitler fantasy. It'll a cost you a fiver to get in. He's also bored and worried about his income, as he's now considering getting pasted in the London Mayoral Election for the publicity. So soon his face will be back on your TV boxes for Questiontime. Are you all so happy.

I rather suspect the Greens won't be objecting and will be only too happy they aren't getting the publicity they deserve as the 4th biggest party at the moment...

So the Summer is over and normal service is resuming. I hope you have enjoyed the rest and this post brings you a little up to speed. We have Party Conferences to look forward to in the upcoming weeks. Won't that be a joy to behold? And the resumption of shooting ourselves in the face in EU talks.

Oh and don't forget that Trump fellow too. Its all starting to look a bit tasty over there ahead of the November elections. What happens there in the next couple of months might be very important to what happens over here.

Who is excited?!

I am just dancing to the sound of the South African Beats.

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Mrsr8 · 06/09/2018 06:49

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woman11017 · 06/09/2018 06:57

Fresh fruit and veg is already beyond the means of many. You can't give it out in Food Banks Mrs8? There's a Sikh charity on London which gives out freshly made curries; probably healthy and delicious.

Mrsr8 · 06/09/2018 07:24

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Mrsr8 · 06/09/2018 07:27

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1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 07:36

The price of bananas in Tesco is way less than in France at the moment, stop whining.
After looking at that New European article linked earlier I looked at the article about driving. Why are Napoleon and Hitler described as 'Despots' for wanting their countries to flourish whereas Victoria who did the same is not?
The definition of despot is control by one or a small number, so that would be a small group comprising messers May, JRM and Fox plus a couple more?

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2018 07:41

Tory HQ bans all Remainer / 2nd Ref events from conference program.

This is outrageous.

Political censorship silencing 28% (?) of the Conservative party.

How did we get to a point where the suppression of dissenting views is barely noteworthy? It is Orwellian.

This government does not learn - they staters with a very expensive court battle over their determination to avoid a parliamentary vote on Article 50.Yet they do not learn but persist in new autocratic, dictatorial politics.

What is next? Using what is left of the army to suppress dissent?

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2018 07:49

Jasmine Mujanovic @JasminMuj
Assume for a sec that the US is in the midst of a constitutional crisis (it is). Notice how the stores are still open, your bus completed its usual route & the game still on? That’s what makes genuine crises terrifying, bc they (co)exist for so long within our normal exp of life.

They continue to do so all up until the point that they don’t. When the news is no longer something you can turn off, when it’s on your street, at your kid’s school, in your community, it’s too late for “resistance”. Then it’s largely a matter of individual survival.

That’s why both scholars of authoritarianism/sectarianism and/or survivors of such regimes have implored you to organize & inform yourself now, when it is/was still “normal”, when it’s still “someone else’s” child, when it’s a Q of archaic rules of order.

The last two days have brought credible allegations of major dysfunction & crisis w/in the USG. There are fundamental Qs re the integrity/legitimacy of the 2016 elxns. It’s unclear what, if any, steps have been taken to secure the mid-terms. Above all...

...the fact that it is unclear who is, genuinely, in charge, what the civilian/military chain of command is, what would happen in event of a major security crisis suggests the situation has already catastrophically deteriorated.

Until there is a concerted & consistent civil society & Congressional effort to restore accountability & leadership in the WH, it is difficult to see any of this ending w/o major instability of sort unlike anything Americans have seen in generations & possibly ever. /xxx

This is real and getting more real.

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Hazardswan · 06/09/2018 07:51

If Tory HQ ban remainer events but labour doesn't, then perhaps we'll end up with a pro party and an opposition that opposes. Snap election anyone?

mrs this is a marathon not a sprint and it ent over till it's over.

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2018 07:52

I'd love you to have a look at it and see what you make of it, Red.

You don't wanna know what I make of it. It looks a lot like my last post.

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Motheroffourdragons · 06/09/2018 07:52

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Mistigri · 06/09/2018 07:52

Voting intentions mapped onto seats by 4 age categories. The last two (older voters) very, very blues.

I am surprised at how polarised the results are and as a result I do wonder about the quality of the underlying data and/ or the analysis (but I haven't looked at the sources).

As a researcher, if I got results that clear cut I'd definitely be going "hmmm" and wondering what I had got wrong. I hope they have done the due diligence on this data.

I do think the Tory party is doing itself long term damage, though. I was chatting to a colleague recently - I'd guess he has voted Tory in the past. Asian, naturally conservative (small c), trained as an economist at a time when university economics was very neoliberal. Voted LD in the last election because he could not bring himself to vote Labour. He told me that he could not see himself ever voting for the Tory party after what has happened in the last two years.

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2018 07:57

I retract part of my previous comment about suppression of views..... just heard that on the 10th MPs will actually debate the electoral fraud petition...: “If Vote Leave has broken any laws regarding overspending in 2016 EU referendum then Article 50 should be immediately withdrawn and full EU membership continued.”

It won't do any good regarding retention of membership but I suppose it may put pressure on for a third vote and perhaps a further push towards a BINO?

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2018 07:59

Sorry cross posted Motherof4dragons.

1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 08:12

Perhaps I might put too much faith in this but as all the European leaders will be watching this undemocratic (or at least under dodgy circumstances) disaster unfold in the UK that they will spare a thought and look kindly on the 'ordinary' UK citizens that are having our lives ruined.

RedToothBrush · 06/09/2018 08:28

www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration
I work for the president but like-minded colleagues and I have vowed to thwart parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.

How much is this going on in the UK government?

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 08:51

John Curtice's 2-year study into changing views on Brexit

The 59:41 preference now for Remain looks skewed, because the % of voters who said they voted Remain in the 2016 ref has crept up over the 2 years from 49 to 53% Hmm

Are there sampling problems, or do we have "Iraq War effect" where voters have false memeory about a vote now perceived as unwise ?
However, even weighting back for that, the study found a 6% swing to remain.

The Leave support among under-40s looks softer than the Leave support from age 60+

Full details:

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/WUKT-EU-Briefing-Paper-14-July-18-Analysis-paper_v3.pdf

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2018 08:53

The study was a briefing paper from July, but recent events are unlikely to have reduced remain support

DGRossetti · 06/09/2018 09:01

Lots more non-EU workers to enter the UK

Low paid (of course)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45429397

UK fruit and vegetable growers will be able to recruit non-EU migrants as seasonal workers after Brexit under a new pilot scheme.

Look forward to hearing Brexiteers completely ignore this ...

1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 09:04

With my comment the other day about war being profitable, what can we make of the UK having warships 'patrolling' in the South China sea in a move likely to 'provoke' China.
While China is gradually 'heavily influencing' that area and taking disputed islands it seems strange that the UK would antagonise China that it will want to do some of the big 'deals' with that Mr Fox has stated will be so easy.

Mistigri · 06/09/2018 09:04

do we have "Iraq War effect" where voters have false memeory about a vote now perceived as unwise

I predicted an "Iraq war effect" a long time ago and so far my forecast is looking good Wink

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2018 09:07

UK fruit and vegetable growers will be able to recruit non-EU migrants as seasonal workers after Brexit under a new pilot scheme.

But not EU ones? Isn't that race discrimination?

1tisILeClerc · 06/09/2018 09:11

@DGR (in agreement with you).
On the basis that workers for picking etc are necessary as a strategy surely it is better to have EU workers who come for the season and are likely to return when 'out of season' rather than non EU workers who will have to travel far greater distances and will probably wish to stay as traveling back and forth will be uneconomic to them. Of course they will want their families with them. An EU worker could well be 'happy' with coming for a couple of months alone, leaving family at 'home'. It is difficult to imagine anyone really wanting to be a permanent 'nomad' with no family and traveling from one shit job to another.

lonelyplanetmum · 06/09/2018 09:22

Thinking about the agricultural worker scheme. Why announce it now? Is it:

a) Testing the water for the closest possible arrangement with the EU whereby we retain FOM -crossing that red line? Or

b) A planning step for No deal whereby our care and agricultural needs are met by bringing in labour from Asia and Africa?

Rosstac · 06/09/2018 09:22

DGRossetti It’s a step in the right direction, visa based jobs scheme, nobody wants to stop casual labour from were ever,

Jason118 · 06/09/2018 09:28

Does anyone really think for one minute that someone from Asia will apply (and pay) for a visa, just to go fruit picking? Really?

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